The US just surpassed $40 trillion of total debt – $32 trillion of public debt. The public debt to GDP ratio is above 100%. No nation has ever recovered from a ratio higher than 90% without great pain and disruption to its society and economy.

There is no significance per se in reaching $40 trillion of debt – it depends on its relation to the overall economy, ability to service the debt, how much is structural and the political will to rein it in. Unfortunately, the debt is way out of kilter to the size of the economy; servicing the debt soon will be unmanageable; it is 100% structural; and political will is non-existent. Although the US debt/GDP ratio was higher following WWII, none of it was structural – more about this infra.

This post assesses the danger based on all recent events and amidst a dire warning from Ray Dalio who, alongside Warren Buffet, is the most successful investor of our time. Also, I reveal the consensus of multiple artificial intelligence models on the probability and timing of the onset of the crisis.

Recent Developments

• Interest rates on long-term US government debt reached a 25-year high. The principal contributing factor was fear of a debt crisis or default.

• Treasury intervened in the bond market to try to lower interest rates.

• Weak demand for US debt has forced the Fed to buy on numerous occasions.

• All 3 major bond rating companies have downgraded US government debt.

• Dire warnings have been sounded by, inter alia, Ray Dalio (more on him infra), Elon Musk, DOGE, Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink and Lawrence Summers.

Ray Dalio Issues Urgent Warning

On August 21, 2026, Dalio, wrote in a LinkedIn post that the US debt crisis could arrive “in three years, give or take two”. This means the crisis could hit anywhere from one to five years from now, i.e. from 2027 to 2031. Dalio advises selling bonds and having at least 15% in gold and cryptos. It is inevitable that rising debt service costs must eventually collide with insufficient demand leading to higher interest rates, printing money, fueling inflation and possible default.

Ray Dalio: The US debt crisis will begin between 2027 and 2031.

Artificial Intelligence Projections

I searched multiple AI sites for the probability and timing of a US debt crisis. There is similarity among the sources. Following is my composite of the responses.

Near Term – Within 5 Years: The probability is 30% using base case assumptions. The likelihood rises to between 50% and 60% under less favorable assumptions. Historically, the worst case always turns out to be the most accurate.

Intermediate Term – Within 10 Years: Probability is 50%, rising to 75% under less sanguine conditions.

The AI generated results are optimistic by a substantial amount. I saw the sources cited by AI and they have been consistently pollyannaish.

More Liberty – Less Government Projectons

My blog has been on target for many years in my analysis of the debt situation. I have been more accurate than any other source. Following is what I project about the probability and timing of the debt crisis. These mirror Day Dalio’s forecast.

• Probability within 2-3 years – 35%

• Odds within 5 years – 75% to 100%

• Likelihood within 10 years – 100%.

US National Debt is in a Doom Loop

The US debt creates a vicious circle or, if you prefer, a doom loop. It is created by persistent deficits which cause more debt, which cause rising interest costs, which feed back into more debt, higher interest rates, weaker economic growth – then more deficits, more debt, higher interest rates and slower growth. Rinse and repeat.

The US now is in the final stage of a doom loop and breaking the vicious circle is impossible. The process is self-reinforcing and rapidly accelerating.

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Comparisons to Post WWII

Whenever the media addresses the Debt/GDP ratio, they always point out the ratio was higher in the 1940s. This is disingenuous and gives the false impression that we have been there before and recovered – so it can’t be all that scary.

The peak ratio in 1946 of 119% was due solely to financing WWII to save America from an existential threat. Once the war ended, so did the associated costs. There was pent up demand and the economy boomed. Within 10 years the ratio fell to a salubrious 57%. There are no parallels whatsoever between 1946 and today.

The WWII debt was a moral imperative to save the world from totalitarian regimes bent on destroying our civilization – we had no choice. Today’s debt is immoral and is a conscious choice we have made – and are continuing to make. We plundered from our children and grandchildren to avoid making hard choices. We borrowed not to save America from conquest, natural disaster or economic ruin, but to finance a decades-long Bacchanalia of spending, debt and deficits.

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$40 Trillion and Counting

Artificial Intelligence, Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, and numerous prominent economists believe there is a 75% to 100% chance the crisis will begin within 5 years, with some believing it will occur within 1 or 2 years. No source asserts it will not happen.

The debt crisis will not end until the economy is deleveraged and all excess debt is purged from the system. This will require great hardship for at least 10 years – likely more. America is not facing an economic crisis, but a moral crisis.

Note to subscribers: After 20 years of blogging, I am changing the frequency of my posts. I still will post on Sunday mornings, but not necessarily every week. Thanks for reading.

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I am still on summer break until after Labor Day. However, this special posting is possible because I am able to call the senate election much earlier than expected.

First, a gentle reminder about my political bona fides. I have 60 years of political experience and my record of calling elections in 20 years of blogging has been prescient – including calling Trump in 2016 and 100% of senate races in the prior 2022 midterm election.

Now that primary season is over and the nominees have been determined, it is clear Democrats have no realistic path to win control of the senate.

Senate seats in the classes of 2028 and 2030, and thus not up for election in 2026, are comprised of 33 Republicans (GOP) and 34 Democrats (Dems).1 In the class of 2026, there are 15 seats safe for the GOP and 10 seats safe for Dems.2 This results in 48 GOP seats and 44 Dem seats (total 92) that either are not up or are safe in 2026.

The GOP will have 50 senate seats and control the senate if they win Texas and Maine.

To cut to the chase, there is no realistic way Dems win Texas, and Maine likely is out of reach. Texas is a laugher; I expect the GOP to win by 500,000 votes. Maine will be closer, but not competitive. The Dem candidates in Texas and Maine are deeply flawed; and in Maine are up against someone who always outperforms polls.

When Texas and Maine are added to the GOP total, this gives them 50 seats and, with the vice president, control of the senate. This is not a surprise as Dems have known all along they needed Maine to have even an outside shot at the senate. Even if by some miracle the Dems win Maine, they would still need to win all 6 of the remaining seats in play including 3 that are leaning GOP. Don’t forget about Minnesota.

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This means the GOP has 50 seats and the Dems 44 – with six that are competitive. Following are how things now stand with the six remaining states.

Alaska: The GOP is 90% likely to carry Alaska. The only possible roadblock is Dem shenanigans – running a candidate with the same name.

Michigan: Republicans are 80% likely to win. El Sayed is far (real far) outside the mainstream and he is up against a strong candidate who nearly won last time.

Iowa: The probability is 65% that the GOP will hold Iowa.

North Carolina: This is a toss-up.

New Hampshire: This is a 55% – 45% election in favor of the Dems. The GOP always comes close in NH and they have a real shot at winning this time. However, as of now they are the underdog.

Georgia: I handicap this as 60% likely to stay with the Dems.

Of the six that are competitive, three (Michigan, Alaska, Iowa) lean strongly GOP. The remaining three (Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina) are in the Democrat column or are in a dead heat.

My fearless forecast is the senate will be 53 Republican to 47 Democrat. For the Dems to take control would require them to win Maine, plus all 6 competitive states and Minnesota, a Sisyphean task for which the probability is infinitesimal.

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House of Representatives

The house is the polar opposite of the senate. Anything is possible. The conventional wisdom is that there are only about 18 seats that are competitive. However, there could be a blue wave if Iran is not settled and inflation spikes, plus the historic pattern of the party out of power gaining seats. There could be a red wave if voters punish the Dems for their embrace of socialism – really, communism.

As the election approaches, stay tuned for more fearless forecasts from MLLG.

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Note to readers: I am on break until after Labor Day; but given all the chatter about Medicare for all, I wanted to share my perspective from 20 summers on Canada’s doorstep.

My family spent 20 summers in Whitefish, Montana, 50 miles south of Canada and only four hours from Calgary and its 1.7 million people. Given the myriad attractions of Whitefish and Glacier National Park, there is a massive Canadian presence during the summers. However, many Canadians also come for the medical care.

I always asked our northern neighbors how satisfied they were with the state run healthcare. Of the many I queried, only 2 said they were satisfied. The first said he liked the care in Canada, but always came to Montana when the waits were too long. The second defended the system by saying it was good at triage, i.e. if your condition seriously deteriorated, they would try to move you up on the waitlist.

Serious Systemic Problems

The core problems with Canadian Medicare are deeply embedded – limited capacity, slow patient flow1, rising demand, ageing population, government inertia and long wait times. Following are some of the specific problems.2

• Too few hospital beds forces patients to wait to be admitted to a hospital.

• Emergency departments are overwhelmed with lengthy wait times.

• There are shortages of primary care doctors, thus pushing patients into emergency rooms for care that should have been handled in primary care. This, of course, exacerbates the wait times for emergency care.

• Long-term care and home care are dysfunctional. This keeps acute care beds occupied longer than necessary and slows care throughout the system.

• There are long waits for diagnostic imaging which slows treatment.

• A dire shortage of specialists results in an average wait time of 30 weeks and as long as 77.4 weeks in some provinces.

There are only 400 MRI machines in all of Canada – less than in Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston or Dallas – where same day service is the norm.

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Typical Wait Times

Following are some current wait times for various medical procedures.

Specialist consultation: 30 weeks

Orthopedic surgery: 57 weeks

Cataract surgery: 20 weeks

Hip replacement: 40 weeks

MRI and CT scan: 22 weeks

Emergency room: up to 24 hours

There currently are 5.8 million, or 1 in 8, Canadians on some form of medical waitlist. The equivalent number for the USA would be 43,750,000!

Confiscatory Taxation

Not only is Canadian healthcare dysfunctional, it is uber-expensive. The federal income tax rate (middle bracket) is 26%; provincial rates add another 26%; payroll taxes add 8%; healthcare is 6% and there is a sales tax of 15%. If you are keeping score, the total is 81%. For all that money, there are 5.8 million Canadians on medical wait lists where some inevitably die waiting for treatment.

The comparable taxes for Montana are: federal income tax (mid bracket) 22.0%, state income tax 4.7%, payroll tax (Social Security) 6.2%, Medicare 1.5% and sales tax 0%. The total for Montana is 34.4% with same day service and no waitlists. Montana delivers far superior healthcare at half the cost of Canada. No one from Montana ever goes to Canada for healthcare.

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Meanwhile in Montana

In Montana many of the procedures listed above are available same day or within a few days. Moreover, the cost is affordable for Canadians without insurance who must pay out-of-pocket. I have heard many heart-wrenching stories about delayed healthcare from my Canadian summer friends, many of whom passionately forewarned me against Canadian style socialized medicine for the USA.

Lessons From Canadian Healthcare

It is an immutable law of economics that if something is in great demand, it must be rationed via either cost or time. Since Medicare for all is free, it can’t be rationed by cost and must be rationed by time. BINGO! How comforting it must be for the 5.8 million Canadians on waitlists to know that if their condition seriously deteriorates, they just might be moved up higher on the waitlist.

Desperate Canadians wait up to 77 weeks for treatment that is instantly available just 50 miles south in Montana – and for half the taxes Canadians pay. Free medical care is no good if it is inaccessible and you die on a waitlist. Keep that in mind when you hear some clueless socialist wannabe touting Medicare for all.

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Hurricane season is just beginning. The first time a hurricane makes landfall in the US, expect politicians and the media to denounce price gouging, establish hotlines for reporting violations and threaten offenders with dire consequences – this despite economists’ near unanimity that this practice is beneficial.

Market prices are determined by voluntary cooperation among people. Government prices are coercive and based on the naked police power of the state. Markets enforce themselves; government prices are enforced by men with guns.

Politicians are hypocritical. While they shamelessly denounce price gouging, they engage in the same practice. Prices at airports, turnpike rest stops and sporting venues – to name but a few – all are vastly inflated because government has a monopoly. Free market prices would be much lower at these places.

A poor ghetto kid risking his scarce capital to broker tickets outside a sporting event should be honored and encouraged – not called a scalper and treated like a criminal.

Americans understand and accept that prices for the same product fluctuate in different circumstances, such as hotel rooms in a college town for the weekend of a big football game. Yet if the price of the same hotel room rises due to an approaching hurricane, it somehow is condemned as gouging. I get it. People view a football game differently than a storm; however, in theory, there is no difference.

Market prices alleviate shortages by directing resources to where they are most needed. Government prices, such as rent control, result in scarcity, substandard housing and higher prices for units not subject to rent control. Market prices are non-political and foster civility. Government prices criminalize honest behavior, create black markets, incentivize illegal behavior and breed disrespect for the law.

Hurricanes and Generators

In a free market, entrepreneurs would buy and stock more generators in advance of a storm. Some may drive to other cities, at some peril, to buy generators to resell for what buyers are willing to pay. Some buyers may pay a lot if they stand to lose thousands of dollars of food in freezers or need to run vital medical equipment; others may just want the convenience of electricity. Market prices would mean those who stand to lose the most or have the greatest need would get generators.

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Moreover, entrepreneurs bear the risk of getting stuck with unwanted generators if demand is insufficient or if the hurricane changes track or weakens. Soon after the storm passes, the price of generators reverts to the status quo ante.

Anti-gouging laws ensure that no one gets additional generators and they criminalize honest and economically desirable behavior.

With anti-gouging laws, no one gets added generators from entrepreneurial activity. In a free market, every decision and price is voluntary and non-coercive. With government prices, such as anti-gouging laws, everyone suffers. The intrepid entrepreneurs who supply extra generators are subject to vilification and arrest, while economically illiterate politicians and the media pander.

Hurricanes and Hotel Rooms

The situation with hotel rooms parallels that of generators. Again, price signals result in the most economically efficient allocation of hotel rooms. By adjusting prices when demand surges, consumers benefit. Higher prices result in the following, all of which result in more hotel rooms being available.

• People are incentivized to stay with family or friends instead of a hotel.

• Some would travel to more distant locations where rooms are cheaper.

• Families that may have taken 2 rooms decide to make do with 1 room.

• Some may decide to stay for fewer nights.

• The supply of rooms would be vastly increased, as higher prices incentivize local residents to rent out rooms – or even their entire house.

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Hurricanes and Price Gouging

The price mechanism assures that more people will get more generators and hotel rooms. Far from being evil, higher prices enable the market to allocate scarce resources to the benefit of all consumers. Why should a storm be different than a football game – or for that matter than to Uber’s surge pricing?

There is no such thing as price gouging. Free market prices convey accurate and valuable information to guide consumers. Government prices such as rent control are dishonest and harm consumers. In which kind of society would you rather live, one based on voluntary cooperation of people in free markets, or one based on lies, coercion and enforced by men with guns?

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Cuba Today

Cuba today suffers 700% inflation, a shrinking economy, 20 hours daily without electricity, mass emigration, collapsing wages, food shortages, demographic implosion, rotting infrastructure, currency chaos and political repression.

The numbers you are about to read in the following paragraph defy belief. Be assured however that the data have been checked from two independent sources. If you wish to check for yourself, I suggest starting with Copilot and Grok.

Cuba’s GDP per capita1 is $7,380, ranking among the lowest of 200 countries. The monthly take home pay of the average Cuban is $16 and the median annual household income is $146, a 96% decrease since 2015. The minimum wage is 3 cents per hour. The workweek is 44 hours. I could cite more statistics, but there is no point.

The cost of living is so high that it takes four months at the average pay to buy a basic food basket with 17 essentials. A dozen eggs costs 3,500 pesos, or about $30.

Authentic Che Guevara

Che may adorn iconic tee shirts worn by clueless youth. Useful idiots, in and out of the media, may offer encomia. But when the regime inevitably falls, the people of Cuba will render final judgment. Statues will be felled, murals defaced and the truth outed that Che was a despotic, murderous megalomaniac who took pleasure in inflicting incalculable suffering. Following are some of his atrocities.

• He executed 500 people without due process; some were broadcast on TV.

• At the UN, he said: “We have executed, are executing and will continue to execute”.

• As chief judge of the revolutionary court, he oversaw systemic atrocities.

• His writings were racist and homophobic.

• When mothers pleaded to spare their sons, he sped up their executions.

• He committed atrocities in Latin America and Africa.

Keep all of the above in mind the next time you see some know-nothing socialist wannabe decked out in a Che tee shirt.

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Real State of Cuban Health Care

Even Cuba’s hyped health care is a dismal failure. It couldn’t save Fidel Castro. There was delayed intervention, surgical failure and complications. They had to bring in a doctor from Spain. Infant mortality, once claimed to be ultra low and even superior to the USA, was a lie. Cuba uses forced abortions for any pregnancy considered risky and they don’t count infant deaths from underweight births.2 Cuba’s infant mortality is among the worst in Latin America and light years behind the USA.

Most Cuban doctors are sent abroad to earn hard currency for the regime. The host country pays Cuba (not the doctors). The doctors are paid a pittance by Cuba which pockets the difference. The doctors can’t quit because the regime uses their family members, who must remain in Cuba, as hostages.

Cuba and Taiwan

In 1959 revolutions occurred on two islands. Both were mountainous, 25% arable, and relied on sugar exports. Both faced large, powerful and hostile enemies that were less than 100 miles away. However, in 1959 one island was far ahead of the other in terms of health, education, income and many other metrics. That nation was Cuba.

In 1959 Cuba took the path of communism, while Taiwan became a free-market capitalist democracy. Fast forward to the present day to see the differences.

• Taiwan’s GDP per capita of $98,000 ranks 10th in the world. Cuba’s is $7,380 and ranks among the worst. Taiwan is 13 times better.

• The average monthly salary in Taiwan is $1,865, or 115 times Cuba’s.

• Minimum wage in Taiwan is $6.11 per hour – 20,567% more than Cuba.

• Median household income in Taiwan is 236 times that of Cuba.

• Taiwan’s freedom index is 4th best in the world; Cuba ranks 175 out of 176; only North Korea is worse.

The above comparisons show the differences between freedom and capitalism versus tyranny and collectivism, between liberty and repression and between prosperity and stagnation. Recall that in 1959 Cuba’s GDP was double that of Taiwan.

Cuba today is a nihilistic society where 35% of all pregnancies are aborted.

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Legacy of Cuban Communism

Cuba has been a basket case for decades. However, the regime was propped up, first by the USSR and later by Russia, Iran and Venezuela.3 Now that none of those countries bails out Cuba, the real picture of the disaster that is Cuba emerges for all to see. And it is an ugly picture. The only redeeming feature is that it provides more evidence of the complete and utter failure of 67 years under socialism.

The data in this post reveal the depth and the breadth of the human and economic train wreck that is Cuba. It showcases the differences between capitalism and collectivism; the contrast with Taiwan is particularly breathtaking.

Cuba is a failed, nihilistic society; 35% of pregnancies are aborted. Nonetheless, Bernie Sanders, AOC, Zohran Mamdani and their progressive fellow travelers advocate the same policies that failed so miserably in Cuba. Go figure.

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