With the election just two days away, I herein reveal my fearless forecast. I analyze the forces favoring each political party in the approximate order of importance. Also, I call the key individual senate races.

Factors Favoring Democrats

• Historical Advantage: The party in power has gained seats only twice since 1900 in midterm elections. The Dems (FDR) won in 1934 in the midst of the Great Depression, and in 2002 the GOP (Bush) won in the aftermath of 9-11. That’s 2 out of 31 times or only 6%. That is a strong tailwind for Dems.

• Trump’s Low Approval Rating: Trump’s approval rating is 38% and his disapproval stands at 60%. These are not good numbers.

• Energy Prices, Inflation and Affordability: The price of gas and diesel undoubtedly is a headwind for the GOP as is affordability overall.

• Generic Ballot: The average of various polls shows Dems up 7 to 8 points.

• Iran War: I listed this only to show I had not forgotten about it. By all accounts this is not a major issue for voters.

Factors Favoring Republicans

• Money: The GOP has significantly outspent the Dems. This helped get their message across, and importantly funded their get out the vote ground game.

• Polling Errors: Most polls are unreliable; many intentionally overstate the Dem advantage to suppress the GOP vote. In Dem primaries in WI and MI, the polls were off a whopping 20 to 30 points. Even good pollsters undercount the GOP by several points. Any election within the margin of error will go GOP.

• Candidate Quality: This is a huge advantage for the GOP in states such as Maine, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and others.

• Trump Barnstorming: Don’t underestimate the effect Trump rallies have had on motivating GOP voters.

• Early Voting: In states with early voting, turnout among GOP voters is running ahead of benchmarks based on prior elections. Seniors, who break heavily Republican, are voting in large numbers – possibly a harbinger of a silver wave. Conversely, Democrat-leaning young voters are under represented.

• Socialism and DSA Craziness: Americans (especially older ones) abhor socialism; that will also affect races other than where DSA candidates are running. Then there is the crazy factor; some Dems espouse ideas that can only be described as crazy, such as abolishing police and the military, open borders and Medicare for all. Then the Dems have Hasan Piker, who says America deserved 9-11. Dems are on the wrong side of every 80/20 and 90/10 issue.

Wild Card

There are three issues that will determine the outcome; they are (1) turnout, (2) turnout and (3) turnout. In the 2024 election, 158 million people voted, whereas in the 2022 midterm election only 112 million voted. This means that 46 million fewer people or 30% less voted in the last midterm. More than any other factor, turnout will determine the outcome – with a high turnout favoring Republicans.

Key Senate Races

Senators in the classes of 2028 and 2030 are not up for election; this includes 33 GOP and 34 Dems. In the class of 2026, there are 15 seats safe for the GOP and 9 for the Dems. This equates to 48 GOP seats and 43 Dem seats. Thus, 91 seats either are not up for election or are considered noncompetitive. That leaves 9 states still in play: Texas, Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan and Maine. Following is my fearless forecast for those crucial 9 states.

• Alaska: This is the hardest to handicap due to ranked voting and two candidates with the same name. Alaska is a toss-up, but I pick the GOP in a nail biter.

• Georgia: This will go blue even though early voting favored the GOP.

• Iowa: Chalk this up for the GOP, although it will be closer than it should be.

• Maine: Collins will win, likely by several points over a flawed opponent.

• Michigan: El-Sayed is losing among African Americans, union members and Jewish voters. This race should not be close; the GOP wins.

• Minnesota: In an upset special, the GOP will flip this deep blue state.

• New Hampshire: The GOP will come tantalizingly close, but will fall short.

• North Carolina: This looks to be solidly a win for the Dems.

• Texas: The GOP candidate is flawed, but the Dem candidate is crazy. Chalk this one up for the GOP. The Dems might have won with a strong candidate.

The 9 states still in play will break 6 GOP and 3 Dem. This means that the Senate will be 54 GOP and 46 Dem. If I am wrong about Alaska and Minnesota, the Senate will be 52 to 48 in favor of Republicans. Democrats would still need to win 3 out of 4 seats from Iowa, Maine, Michigan and Texas to take control of the Senate.

Republicans will control the Senate 54 to 46, but do no worse than 52 to 48.

Based on the above analysis, my fearless forecast is that Republicans hold the Senate by 54 to 46, but should be no worse off than 52 to 48.

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House of Representatives

I don’t have enough granular data to forecast the House. There are fewer than 20 seats up for grabs. If forced to opine, I would guess Democrats narrowly win control.

Election 2026

I have made my fearless forecast, but humbly acknowledge there is a wide range of possible outcomes, with turnout being the wild card. There could be a blue wave if voters sour on Trump and blame the GOP (whether rightly or wrongly) for high prices. There could be a red wave if voters punish Dems for socialism, craziness and being on the wrong side of every 80/20 issue. As always, voters will have the final say.

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The same percentage (28%) of Americans believe in Bigfoot as trust the media.1 Their distrust is not misplaced. Journalism schools are hothouses of progressive claptrap. They attract students from the bottom deciles who harbor illusions of adequacy and who don’t have enough chlorine in their gene pools.

In recent polls 25% of Americans self-identify as progressive; their beliefs are based on religion and are thus impervious to facts or logic. Fact checking sources such as PolitiFact and Snopes shill for the far left. America needs an accurate nonpolitical source of fact. Fortunately, for the remaining 75% of us, deliverance is on the way.

I have blogged several times about how America could use Fair Witnesses or Mentats. We are on the cusp of super intelligence (“SI”) that can achieve the same results.

Fair Witness

Fair Witness is a creation of Robert Heinlein in his 1961 blockbuster sci-fi classic, Stranger in a Strange Land.2 It is set in a milieu of an overbearing government (sound familiar?). The only way citizens could counter the overweening power of the state was to hire a Fair Witness – a specially trained person so truthful and objective as to be unimpeachable. Fair Witnesses wore distinctive white robes and were accorded deferential treatment by society, government and courts.

Although the Fair Witness concept was only a small obscure part of a book published 65 years ago, it has nearly 100 million internet searches. Clearly, people are desperate for a reliable way to separate fact from fiction, truth from spin and political claims from objective reality.

Mentat

Created by sci-fi author Frank Herbert (Dune series), Mentats were trained to develop their cognitive and analytic capacities to unimaginable heights. Mentats possessed eidetic memories and were the embodiment of logic and reason. It is thus a recurring sci-fi theme that society desires accurate impartial arbiters of ascertainable facts.

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Super Intelligence

Based on 100,000,000 internet searches, it is safe to conclude that Americans (or at least 75% of them) are desperate for a source of truth. There is no reason SI cannot become the fulfillment and embodiment of Fair Witnesses and Mentats. It would be entirely appropriate to name the first such SI application Fair Witness.

Fair Witness SI would destroy progressivism, which is based on spin, lies and maskirovka. Their running dogs in the media no longer could get away with blatant bias.

Imagine the possibilities. A Fair Witness SI app would trump public debate about any issue that lends itself to objective proof. It would be the death knell for progressivism which is based on lies, spin and maskirovka. Suddenly, being untruthful would become counterproductive. SI would even make the media more circumspect as any attempt to deceive, such as biased reporting, could be instantly debunked.

The current state of SI is not yet ready for Fair Witness, although it is close enough to savor the possibilities. I have tested Gemini, Copilot, Grok and ChatGpt with queries about hot button political issues. In most cases, the results represented improvement from the standard progressive narrative, but still included content based on questionable data, which I assume is due to the preponderance of such source data relied upon by SI. Nonetheless, we are tantalizingly close.

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Thanks to Heinlein and Hubert

We have much to learn from science fiction. Like all great sci-fi, Stranger in a Strange Land and Dune speak to us today. A Fair Witness SI would bring about a seismic shift in politics, media and advertising. We are within a few short years of achieving the results first advanced by Heinlein and Herbert six decades ago. No longer will 28% of Americans believe in Bigfoot and we may even have media we can trust.

The next post will be November 1 and will reveal my Fearless Forecast for the election.

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Progressives use Columbus Day to force feed our children and grandchildren liberal shibboleths, teaching them to despise America. They weaponize history with their mantra that America (and therefore you) is evil and genocidal and that all indigenous people are noble and peace loving. I also tackle the issue of slavery, which is central to the war against the West. Progressives derive sadistic pleasure from assailing our holidays to riddle us with guilt. Following are the facts.

Treatment of Indigenous People

Throughout history, without exception, whenever a more technologically advanced society encountered an aboriginal people, it ended very poorly for the natives. What would have happened if the Aztecs were more advanced and discovered paleolithic Europe? What would have happened if the Arabs or Chinese beat Columbus to America? It is manifestly unfair to condemn only Columbus for human behavior that has been unchanged since men lived in trees.

Did Europeans Commit Genocide?

Most deaths post-Columbus resulted from infectious diseases brought from Europe, many of which migrated from Asia. The bubonic plague originated in China, and decimated the population of Europe, yet no one blamed China. In the fifteenth century no one understood infectious diseases and contagion of the indigenous population was inevitable no matter who discovered America.

No Western nation pursued a policy of genocide. There is not one record extant showing that genocide was to be practised. If there was such a record, it would have been seized upon long ago by those falsely screaming “genocide”.

Did Americans Commit Genocide?

Wounded Knee has become the latte-left’s poster child for alleging genocide. The Miniconjou Sioux suffered 197 casualties (146 killed, 51 wounded). The US cavalry had 64 casualties (25 killed, 39 wounded). The ratio of casualties was 3 to 1. Compare this to the Iraq War ratio of 11 to 1, Agincourt 15 to 1 and Gaugamela 80 to 1. No one ever refers to these as massacres or genocides. Note: The US cavalry cared for the wounded Sioux and transported them a great distance for treatment – hardly genocidal.

Indigenous Peoples as Peaceful and Noble

How could a tiny number of Europeans conquer vast territories and subjugate large populations? Columbus allied with the Arawaks against the Caribs, who were vicious cannibals. Cortez, with only 500 conquistadores, conquered the Aztecs only with the help of 50,000 natives terrorized by the Aztecs’ enslavement and human sacrifices. It was much the same with Pizarro, who had but 180 men when he landed in Peru. Progressives fault the West while ignoring even worse savagery by the natives.

Africans Complicit in the Slave Trade

Instead of being forcibly captured by European slavers, most slaves were sold by other Africans – even by their own families. The slave trade could not have flourished without the support of African elites. In America, emancipated slaves, who could afford it, also owned slaves.

“Selling one’s neighbors, and even one’s own children, into slavery is more condemnable than buying them.” (Voltaire)

Slavery and Western Civilization

Slavery is evil and condemnable always and everywhere. However, progressives focus only on slavery in America and divorce it from all context and often heroic efforts to abolish it. Following is much needed context, much of which may surprise you.

• Slavery has been a constant throughout history. From the 15th to the 19th century, 10 million slaves were shipped from Africa to the West – mostly to the Caribbean. A far greater number (15 million) was sent east to the Ottoman Empire.

• The eastern nations do not have the same legacy as the US, which today has tens of millions descended from slaves. This is because the Ottomans castrated their slaves and killed their slaves when their usefulness was over.

• Barbary pirates captured and enslaved over one million Europeans.

• Many heroic efforts were made by the West to end slavery. England abolished slavery in 1807 and the Royal Navy wiped out the slave trade in much of the world over a 50-year span. They captured 1,500 slave ships and freed 150,000 slaves at a cost of over 1,500 dead Englishmen. Some historians consider this the most expensive moral action in modern history.

There are more slaves in 2026 than at any other time in human history

There are fifty million (50,000,000) slaves today1 and this does not include tens of millions held in peonage. In the US there are 5,000,000 slaves (35% of which are children) found in all 50 states. They are being trafficked for sex and forced labor. Chattel slavery thrives in many countries – some of which have open slave markets.

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Columbus Revered Throughout Latin America

Although progressives consider Columbus an evil oppressor, he is regarded as a hero in Latin America – by those most directly affected by him. They celebrate the day he landed as Dia de Raza, or day of the race. While Columbus statues are being defaced and removed in the US, new ones are being erected in the rest of the hemisphere, including one in Puerto Rico taller than the Statue of Liberty.

Without Columbus and the Spanish colonization of Latin America, Latinos as a people would not exist. The rich Latino culture incorporates the skin tones and characteristics of Spanish, African and indigenous Americans. By honoring the courage and bravado of Columbus, Latin Americans celebrate their own place in a world he made possible. Without Columbus there would be no Latinos.

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Happy Columbus Day 2026

Christopher Columbus is not the issue. He never was. Columbus Day is just one part of an ongoing and vicious campaign by liberals who despise America and indeed all of Western civilization. Happy Columbus Day 2026!

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Suicidal Empathy is the title of a recently published nonfiction book by Gad Saad. This is only the third book review I have published in 20 years of blogging and is a must read. It cogently explains why progressives advocate policies, cultural norms and moral judgments that prioritize emotional validation over truth, reason and even over societal preservation – they literally choose suicide by rejecting objective reality.

Saad contends Western Civilization has corrupted one of humanity’s signal virtues (empathy) which is essential for social cohesion. Saad argues contemporary progressive politics risks suicide by promoting narratives that override empirical evidence.

Too little empathy results in psychopathy; too much risks civilizational suicide.

Empathy Gone Dangerously Wrong

Cultural and psychological beliefs amplify destructive empathy in many ways. Elites engage in virtue signaling that imposes costs and risks on others. They symbolically support causes without making any meaningful sacrifices. They suppress or deny inconvenient truths to protect marginalized groups from discomfort. These behaviors result in victimhood being valorized, criminals prioritized over victims and truth being sacrificed on the altar of emotional narratives.

Civilizations die by suicide rather than murder (Toynbee). Liberalism is the ideology of Western suicide (Burnham).

Suicidal empathy is a unique form of self-destruction – one not driven by violence or nihilism – but by misguided empathy when emotions eclipse reason and common sense. It results when compassion is applied in ways that may feel morally virtuous, but ultimately produce harm to people, institutions and society.

Not surprisingly, women consistently score higher in empathy, which makes them more susceptible to emotion and suicidal empathy. This explains why women, often by substantial margins, vote progressive while men vote conservative.

Unchecked empathy threatens the foundation of Western Civilization. (Saad)

Examples of Suicidal Empathy

Crime and Justice

Empathy leads to cashless bail and the release of violent criminals with a long history of crime. Over-lenient sentencing, early parole, failure to prosecute shoplifting, and drug crimes all result in more crime and more victims. Empathy prioritizes criminals over public safety.

Immigration and Borders

Unvetted mass entry, by abolishing borders, releases terrorists, murderers, gangbangers, child rapists and the criminally insane into the US. Sanctuary cities release hardened criminals and refuse to cooperate with ICE. Such immigration raises the cost of housing, healthcare, and welfare – often crowding out citizens. Empathy assumes all cultures, including those advocating our destruction, can be assimilated.

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Education and Research

Research that contradicts progressive narratives is suppressed and the authors canceled. Grades are inflated, college admissions are dumbed down and standards are lowered out of empathy to protected groups.

Climate Change

Climate alarmism, (not singled out by Saad) elevated to the status of a religion by its acolytes, is the most destructive example extant where science was ignored in favor of a narrative embraced by the progressive elite. Along with open borders, and unassimilated immigrants, it has nearly destroyed the economy of Western Europe.

Culture and Other

Empathy prioritizes feelings above facts. Victimhood is valorized and unfounded assertions of oppression and fabricated grievances are rewarded. Welfare provides unconditional benefits to druggies and homeless without requiring accountability. Instead of helping, such policies trap the recipients in dependency. Progressives, out of misguided empathy, permit homeless encampments to degrade the lives of citizens, while turning cities into open drug markets and open sewers.

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Suicidal Empathy

Suicidal empathy is a stark warning to Americans and Western Civilization. Empathy, when misdirected or excessive, is a destructive force that can lead to societal suicide. Saad calls for a return to balanced empathy – compassion moderated by rationality, truth and empirical evidence. We must not allow America to become sheep that invite the progressive wolves for dinner.

Note to subscribers: After 20 years of blogging I am changing the frequency of my postings. I will continue (usually) to post on Sunday mornings – just not every week.

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The US just surpassed $40 trillion of total debt – $32 trillion of public debt. The public debt to GDP ratio is above 100%. No nation has ever recovered from a ratio higher than 90% without great pain and disruption to its society and economy.

There is no significance per se in reaching $40 trillion of debt – it depends on its relation to the overall economy, ability to service the debt, how much is structural and the political will to rein it in. Unfortunately, the debt is way out of kilter to the size of the economy; servicing the debt soon will be unmanageable; it is 100% structural; and political will is non-existent. Although the US debt/GDP ratio was higher following WWII, none of it was structural – more about this infra.

This post assesses the danger based on all recent events and amidst a dire warning from Ray Dalio who, alongside Warren Buffet, is the most successful investor of our time. Also, I reveal the consensus of multiple artificial intelligence models on the probability and timing of the onset of the crisis.

Recent Developments

• Interest rates on long-term US government debt reached a 25-year high. The principal contributing factor was fear of a debt crisis or default.

• Treasury intervened in the bond market to try to lower interest rates.

• Weak demand for US debt has forced the Fed to buy on numerous occasions.

• All 3 major bond rating companies have downgraded US government debt.

• Dire warnings have been sounded by, inter alia, Ray Dalio (more on him infra), Elon Musk, DOGE, Jamie Dimon, Larry Fink and Lawrence Summers.

Ray Dalio Issues Urgent Warning

On August 21, 2026, Dalio, wrote in a LinkedIn post that the US debt crisis could arrive “in three years, give or take two”. This means the crisis could hit anywhere from one to five years from now, i.e. from 2027 to 2031. Dalio advises selling bonds and having at least 15% in gold and cryptos. It is inevitable that rising debt service costs must eventually collide with insufficient demand leading to higher interest rates, printing money, fueling inflation and possible default.

Ray Dalio: The US debt crisis will begin between 2027 and 2031.

Artificial Intelligence Projections

I searched multiple AI sites for the probability and timing of a US debt crisis. There is similarity among the sources. Following is my composite of the responses.

Near Term – Within 5 Years: The probability is 30% using base case assumptions. The likelihood rises to between 50% and 60% under less favorable assumptions. Historically, the worst case always turns out to be the most accurate.

Intermediate Term – Within 10 Years: Probability is 50%, rising to 75% under less sanguine conditions.

The AI generated results are optimistic by a substantial amount. I saw the sources cited by AI and they have been consistently pollyannaish.

More Liberty – Less Government Projectons

My blog has been on target for many years in my analysis of the debt situation. I have been more accurate than any other source. Following is what I project about the probability and timing of the debt crisis. These mirror Day Dalio’s forecast.

• Probability within 2-3 years – 35%

• Odds within 5 years – 75% to 100%

• Likelihood within 10 years – 100%.

US National Debt is in a Doom Loop

The US debt creates a vicious circle or, if you prefer, a doom loop. It is created by persistent deficits which cause more debt, which cause rising interest costs, which feed back into more debt, higher interest rates, weaker economic growth – then more deficits, more debt, higher interest rates and slower growth. Rinse and repeat.

The US now is in the final stage of a doom loop and breaking the vicious circle is impossible. The process is self-reinforcing and rapidly accelerating.

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Comparisons to Post WWII

Whenever the media addresses the Debt/GDP ratio, they always point out the ratio was higher in the 1940s. This is disingenuous and gives the false impression that we have been there before and recovered – so it can’t be all that scary.

The peak ratio in 1946 of 119% was due solely to financing WWII to save America from an existential threat. Once the war ended, so did the associated costs. There was pent up demand and the economy boomed. Within 10 years the ratio fell to a salubrious 57%. There are no parallels whatsoever between 1946 and today.

The WWII debt was a moral imperative to save the world from totalitarian regimes bent on destroying our civilization – we had no choice. Today’s debt is immoral and is a conscious choice we have made – and are continuing to make. We plundered from our children and grandchildren to avoid making hard choices. We borrowed not to save America from conquest, natural disaster or economic ruin, but to finance a decades-long Bacchanalia of spending, debt and deficits.

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$40 Trillion and Counting

Artificial Intelligence, Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, and numerous prominent economists believe there is a 75% to 100% chance the crisis will begin within 5 years, with some believing it will occur within 1 or 2 years. No source asserts it will not happen.

The debt crisis will not end until the economy is deleveraged and all excess debt is purged from the system. This will require great hardship for at least 10 years – likely more. America is not facing an economic crisis, but a moral crisis.

Note to subscribers: After 20 years of blogging, I am changing the frequency of my posts. I still will post on Sunday mornings, but not necessarily every week. Thanks for reading.

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I am still on summer break until after Labor Day. However, this special posting is possible because I am able to call the senate election much earlier than expected.

First, a gentle reminder about my political bona fides. I have 60 years of political experience and my record of calling elections in 20 years of blogging has been prescient – including calling Trump in 2016 and 100% of senate races in the prior 2022 midterm election.

Now that primary season is over and the nominees have been determined, it is clear Democrats have no realistic path to win control of the senate.

Senate seats in the classes of 2028 and 2030, and thus not up for election in 2026, are comprised of 33 Republicans (GOP) and 34 Democrats (Dems).1 In the class of 2026, there are 15 seats safe for the GOP and 10 seats safe for Dems.2 This results in 48 GOP seats and 44 Dem seats (total 92) that either are not up or are safe in 2026.

The GOP will have 50 senate seats and control the senate if they win Texas and Maine.

To cut to the chase, there is no realistic way Dems win Texas, and Maine likely is out of reach. Texas is a laugher; I expect the GOP to win by 500,000 votes. Maine will be closer, but not competitive. The Dem candidates in Texas and Maine are deeply flawed; and in Maine are up against someone who always outperforms polls.

When Texas and Maine are added to the GOP total, this gives them 50 seats and, with the vice president, control of the senate. This is not a surprise as Dems have known all along they needed Maine to have even an outside shot at the senate. Even if by some miracle the Dems win Maine, they would still need to win all 6 of the remaining seats in play including 3 that are leaning GOP. Don’t forget about Minnesota.

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This means the GOP has 50 seats and the Dems 44 – with six that are competitive. Following are how things now stand with the six remaining states.

Alaska: The GOP is 90% likely to carry Alaska. The only possible roadblock is Dem shenanigans – running a candidate with the same name.

Michigan: Republicans are 80% likely to win. El Sayed is far (real far) outside the mainstream and he is up against a strong candidate who nearly won last time.

Iowa: The probability is 65% that the GOP will hold Iowa.

North Carolina: This is a toss-up.

New Hampshire: This is a 55% – 45% election in favor of the Dems. The GOP always comes close in NH and they have a real shot at winning this time. However, as of now they are the underdog.

Georgia: I handicap this as 60% likely to stay with the Dems.

Of the six that are competitive, three (Michigan, Alaska, Iowa) lean strongly GOP. The remaining three (Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina) are in the Democrat column or are in a dead heat.

My fearless forecast is the senate will be 53 Republican to 47 Democrat. For the Dems to take control would require them to win Maine, plus all 6 competitive states and Minnesota, a Sisyphean task for which the probability is infinitesimal.

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House of Representatives

The house is the polar opposite of the senate. Anything is possible. The conventional wisdom is that there are only about 18 seats that are competitive. However, there could be a blue wave if Iran is not settled and inflation spikes, plus the historic pattern of the party out of power gaining seats. There could be a red wave if voters punish the Dems for their embrace of socialism – really, communism.

As the election approaches, stay tuned for more fearless forecasts from MLLG.

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Note to readers: I am on break until after Labor Day; but given all the chatter about Medicare for all, I wanted to share my perspective from 20 summers on Canada’s doorstep.

My family spent 20 summers in Whitefish, Montana, 50 miles south of Canada and only four hours from Calgary and its 1.7 million people. Given the myriad attractions of Whitefish and Glacier National Park, there is a massive Canadian presence during the summers. However, many Canadians also come for the medical care.

I always asked our northern neighbors how satisfied they were with the state run healthcare. Of the many I queried, only 2 said they were satisfied. The first said he liked the care in Canada, but always came to Montana when the waits were too long. The second defended the system by saying it was good at triage, i.e. if your condition seriously deteriorated, they would try to move you up on the waitlist.

Serious Systemic Problems

The core problems with Canadian Medicare are deeply embedded – limited capacity, slow patient flow1, rising demand, ageing population, government inertia and long wait times. Following are some of the specific problems.2

• Too few hospital beds forces patients to wait to be admitted to a hospital.

• Emergency departments are overwhelmed with lengthy wait times.

• There are shortages of primary care doctors, thus pushing patients into emergency rooms for care that should have been handled in primary care. This, of course, exacerbates the wait times for emergency care.

• Long-term care and home care are dysfunctional. This keeps acute care beds occupied longer than necessary and slows care throughout the system.

• There are long waits for diagnostic imaging which slows treatment.

• A dire shortage of specialists results in an average wait time of 30 weeks and as long as 77.4 weeks in some provinces.

There are only 400 MRI machines in all of Canada – less than in Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston or Dallas – where same day service is the norm.

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Typical Wait Times

Following are some current wait times for various medical procedures.

Specialist consultation: 30 weeks

Orthopedic surgery: 57 weeks

Cataract surgery: 20 weeks

Hip replacement: 40 weeks

MRI and CT scan: 22 weeks

Emergency room: up to 24 hours

There currently are 5.8 million, or 1 in 8, Canadians on some form of medical waitlist. The equivalent number for the USA would be 43,750,000!

Confiscatory Taxation

Not only is Canadian healthcare dysfunctional, it is uber-expensive. The federal income tax rate (middle bracket) is 26%; provincial rates add another 26%; payroll taxes add 8%; healthcare is 6% and there is a sales tax of 15%. If you are keeping score, the total is 81%. For all that money, there are 5.8 million Canadians on medical wait lists where some inevitably die waiting for treatment.

The comparable taxes for Montana are: federal income tax (mid bracket) 22.0%, state income tax 4.7%, payroll tax (Social Security) 6.2%, Medicare 1.5% and sales tax 0%. The total for Montana is 34.4% with same day service and no waitlists. Montana delivers far superior healthcare at half the cost of Canada. No one from Montana ever goes to Canada for healthcare.

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Meanwhile in Montana

In Montana many of the procedures listed above are available same day or within a few days. Moreover, the cost is affordable for Canadians without insurance who must pay out-of-pocket. I have heard many heart-wrenching stories about delayed healthcare from my Canadian summer friends, many of whom passionately forewarned me against Canadian style socialized medicine for the USA.

Lessons From Canadian Healthcare

It is an immutable law of economics that if something is in great demand, it must be rationed via either cost or time. Since Medicare for all is free, it can’t be rationed by cost and must be rationed by time. BINGO! How comforting it must be for the 5.8 million Canadians on waitlists to know that if their condition seriously deteriorates, they just might be moved up higher on the waitlist.

Desperate Canadians wait up to 77 weeks for treatment that is instantly available just 50 miles south in Montana – and for half the taxes Canadians pay. Free medical care is no good if it is inaccessible and you die on a waitlist. Keep that in mind when you hear some clueless socialist wannabe touting Medicare for all.

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Hurricane season is just beginning. The first time a hurricane makes landfall in the US, expect politicians and the media to denounce price gouging, establish hotlines for reporting violations and threaten offenders with dire consequences – this despite economists’ near unanimity that this practice is beneficial.

Market prices are determined by voluntary cooperation among people. Government prices are coercive and based on the naked police power of the state. Markets enforce themselves; government prices are enforced by men with guns.

Politicians are hypocritical. While they shamelessly denounce price gouging, they engage in the same practice. Prices at airports, turnpike rest stops and sporting venues – to name but a few – all are vastly inflated because government has a monopoly. Free market prices would be much lower at these places.

A poor ghetto kid risking his scarce capital to broker tickets outside a sporting event should be honored and encouraged – not called a scalper and treated like a criminal.

Americans understand and accept that prices for the same product fluctuate in different circumstances, such as hotel rooms in a college town for the weekend of a big football game. Yet if the price of the same hotel room rises due to an approaching hurricane, it somehow is condemned as gouging. I get it. People view a football game differently than a storm; however, in theory, there is no difference.

Market prices alleviate shortages by directing resources to where they are most needed. Government prices, such as rent control, result in scarcity, substandard housing and higher prices for units not subject to rent control. Market prices are non-political and foster civility. Government prices criminalize honest behavior, create black markets, incentivize illegal behavior and breed disrespect for the law.

Hurricanes and Generators

In a free market, entrepreneurs would buy and stock more generators in advance of a storm. Some may drive to other cities, at some peril, to buy generators to resell for what buyers are willing to pay. Some buyers may pay a lot if they stand to lose thousands of dollars of food in freezers or need to run vital medical equipment; others may just want the convenience of electricity. Market prices would mean those who stand to lose the most or have the greatest need would get generators.

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Moreover, entrepreneurs bear the risk of getting stuck with unwanted generators if demand is insufficient or if the hurricane changes track or weakens. Soon after the storm passes, the price of generators reverts to the status quo ante.

Anti-gouging laws ensure that no one gets additional generators and they criminalize honest and economically desirable behavior.

With anti-gouging laws, no one gets added generators from entrepreneurial activity. In a free market, every decision and price is voluntary and non-coercive. With government prices, such as anti-gouging laws, everyone suffers. The intrepid entrepreneurs who supply extra generators are subject to vilification and arrest, while economically illiterate politicians and the media pander.

Hurricanes and Hotel Rooms

The situation with hotel rooms parallels that of generators. Again, price signals result in the most economically efficient allocation of hotel rooms. By adjusting prices when demand surges, consumers benefit. Higher prices result in the following, all of which result in more hotel rooms being available.

• People are incentivized to stay with family or friends instead of a hotel.

• Some would travel to more distant locations where rooms are cheaper.

• Families that may have taken 2 rooms decide to make do with 1 room.

• Some may decide to stay for fewer nights.

• The supply of rooms would be vastly increased, as higher prices incentivize local residents to rent out rooms – or even their entire house.

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Hurricanes and Price Gouging

The price mechanism assures that more people will get more generators and hotel rooms. Far from being evil, higher prices enable the market to allocate scarce resources to the benefit of all consumers. Why should a storm be different than a football game – or for that matter than to Uber’s surge pricing?

There is no such thing as price gouging. Free market prices convey accurate and valuable information to guide consumers. Government prices such as rent control are dishonest and harm consumers. In which kind of society would you rather live, one based on voluntary cooperation of people in free markets, or one based on lies, coercion and enforced by men with guns?

[{“id”:”custom_html”,”tag”:”<a href="Read More“>Original on Substack”}]