Election 2024 – 30 Day Update

My fearless forecast of where the election stands 30 days out

George Noga
Oct 6, 2024

This is the latest of my Election 2024 posts. Prior posts on this topic were dated December 10, 2023, April 28, 2024 and August 18, 2024. They all are available in the Substack archives and on my website: www.mllg.us. I will reveal my final fearless forecast on November 3rd – just two days before the election.

Where the Election Stands Today

There are new polls released almost every day. The most recent Real Clear Politics average has Harris up nationally by a few points, but with momentum trending toward Trump. In 2016, the final polls had Trump losing by 5 or more percentage points, but he outperformed the polls by 3 points. The same was true to a lesser extent in 2020. This leads to my first key takeaways.

• Takeaway #1: Trump will outperform national polls by 2 to 3 points.
• Takeaway #2: Trump will outperforms swing state polls by 3 to 5 points.

Moreover, there is a chasm between the total (popular) vote and the Electoral College. In 2020 Biden got 81.3 million votes to 74.2 million for Trump – a difference of 7.1 million or 4.6%. Despite this sizeable margin, Biden barely won the Electoral College; a swing of 50,000 total votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin would have reelected Trump. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes or 2.2%, but barely won the Electoral College. A swing of 75,000 total votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would have elected Clinton.

• Takeaway #3: Harris must win by at least 2 points (likely more) in the popular vote in order to get a majority in the Electoral College.
• Takeaway #4: Combining takeaways #1 and #3, ceteris paribus, Harris must be up between 4 and 5 points nationally to win the Electoral College.

Gulf Between Popular Vote and Electoral College

There is a huge difference between the total vote and the Electoral College. This is easily explained by a few numbers. Large deep blue states like CA and NY pile up gargantuan margins for Dems, while the GOP margins in large deep red states are small. In 2016, Clinton won CA by 4.3 million and NY by 1.8 million, whereas Trump won TX by 0.8 million and FL by 0.1 million. In 2020, Biden won CA by 5.1 million and NY by 1.9 million, while Trump won TX by 0.6 million and FL by 0.4 million.

• Takeaway #5: To the extent Trump cuts Harris’ margins in deep blue states, it reduces the margin by which she must win the popular vote. There is basis to believe this is happening; that’s why I added “ceteris paribus” to #4 above.

Fearless Forecast for President

Based on the five takeaways listed supra, if the election were held today, Trump would win because Harris is up only slightly nationally. The Harris campaign knows this and is getting close to panic mode. Further, Trump is running well ahead of where he was 30 days before the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Kamala has a serious likeability problem; the more people know about her and see her, the less they like her. She is a deeply flawed candidate. When she ran for president in 2016, she started by polling 15% but ended up with 1%. She was the first candidate to drop out of the Dem primaries. She can’t be trusted to hold a press conference or even an interview with a serious journalist. I expect Kamala’s support to attrit between now and the election. This leads to my final takeaway.

• Takeaway #6: Time is not Kamala’s friend.

If Trump runs a proper campaign and avoids self-inflicted wounds, he should win by a comfortable margin. However, Trump is also a flawed candidate and is showing a lack of focus on the issues and is prone to hyperbole and distraction. I continue to believe 2024 is Trump’s election to lose but also that he is fully capable of losing it.

Fearless Forecast for Senate and House

The senate electoral map in 2024 favors republicans. I expect the GOP to hold all its existing Senate seats and to pick up seats in WV (a near certainty) and MT (highly likely). This would flip the Senate to 51 Republican and 49 Democrat. Moreover, if Trump wins decisively, I look for the GOP to pick up one or more seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada resulting in a larger Republican majority.

The House is too close to call. Control likely depends on whether or not the GOP can hang onto the seats in CA and NY it picked up in 2022.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com