Tag: Election 2024

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Election 2024 Fearless Forecast

George Noga

Election 2024 Fearless Forecast

Trump wins handily and the GOP takes control of the senate

George Noga
Nov 3, 2024

I based my fearless forecast of a decisive Trump victory on the data listed below. These were the facts as of my final edit on November 2nd.
November 6th newspaper headline
  • The average of national polls has the race about even and well within the 3% margin of error. As explained in my October 6th update ¹ (on my website and in Substack archives), Harris must have a lead of at least 4 points to win in the Electoral College. Since the margin of error is 3 points, Harris falls short of her magic number even if the entire margin of error moves in her direction.
  • Polls show 79% of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
  • Harris’ job approval rating is only 45% while Biden’s is 43%.
  • Polls in battleground states are tight, with most having Trump a slight favorite; they all are within the margin of error. However, due to Trump’s record of outperforming polls, Harris must be ahead by 2-3 points to win.
  • Harris has a history of starting strong and fading rapidly.² In her race for CA Attorney General, the vote was much tighter than expected. In the 2019 Dem primary she started off polling 15% but ended up at 1%. The momentum favors Trump as voters learn more about Harris and don’t like what they see.
  • Legal betting markets favor Trump by over 60%, with the average around 62%.
  • When asked if they were better off than 4 years ago, 55% say no.
  • Trends in voting blocks favor Trump. Blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Asians, Catholics, youth and union members all poll stronger for Trump than in prior elections.
  • Polling on the two major issues, the economy and immigration, strongly favors Trump. Harris leads only on abortion.
  • In the generic ballot, surveys show the GOP even or slightly ahead. This is better than in prior elections when the generic ballot heavily favored Dems.
  • Voter registrations (particularly new ones) favor the GOP.
  • Metrics of enthusiasm, crowd size and yard signs all favor Trump.
  • Trump is well ahead in the polls versus where he was in 2016 and 2020.
  • Early voting appears to favor Trump. The GOP has reduced the Dem’s advantage in early voting. This is worth one percentage point for Trump as studies have shown that 10% of voters who plan to vote on election day fail to do so.
  • Trump’s “favorability” number hit 50% this past week – the highest ever.

Based on the above facts, calling the election for Trump appears to be a no-brainer. However, there is a narrow pathway for Harris to win. There also are many pathways Trump and the GOP could win in a statement election. The odds are as follows.

Harris Wins – 10 % Probability

An unlikely confluence of events could result in a Harris victory. Remember that no one expected Trump to win in 2016 and the much anticipated red wave in 2022 failed to materialize. Here’s what it would take for a Harris victory: (1) the 3% margin of error in the polls swings heavily toward Harris; (2) late momentum breaks her way³; (3) the Dems’ ground game and vote harvesting delivers big time; and (4) Harris squeaks by in enough of the swing states to win.

Trump Wins Comfortably – 50% Probability

This is the most likely outcome, i.e. Trump wins based on all the metrics listed supra. Trump wins all the states he carried in 2020, plus enough swing states to put him comfortably over 270 electoral votes. It will not be a cliffhanger.

Trump Wins Big With Over 300 Electoral Votes – 30% Probability

In this scenario, Trump carries all or nearly all the swing states plus picks off one or more blue states such as NM and CO.

Trump Wins In Landslide – 10% Probability

For this to happen Trump would need to carry all the swing states plus several of the following: NH, NM, CO, VA and MN. In this scenario, Trump also would win the national popular vote.

Republicans Take Back Senate

At a minimum, the GOP will hold onto all of its current senate seats plus pick up seats in WV and MT for a 51-49 majority. If Republicans win big, they will pick up at least two more seats for a 53 to 47 edge. If Trump wins in a landslide, the GOP will add even more seats in some of the following states OH, NV, PA, MI, WI, MD and AZ for a 55 to 45 senate majority.

House of Representatives – Too Close To Call

Republican control of the House likely depends on how well they defend the seats they won in 2022 in CA and NY. However, if Trump wins big, the GOP will pick off several more seats in light blue districts.

1     Harris will amass a margin of over 6 million votes in CA, NY and IL (combined) over Trump’s margin in TX and FL (combined). This results in a 6 million vote margin for Trump in the other 45 states. Finally, 6 million votes equal 4% of the total vote of 150 million. This math explains why Harris must win the national vote by at least 4 points to win in the Electoral College.
2     This is explained by her likeability problem. She comes across as inauthentic because she cannot articulate her true beliefs – which (outside of California) are political suicide.
3     There can be significant movement in the final few days if undecided voters break in the same direction. This happened in 1980 with Reagan and with Humphrey in 1968. The late surge for Humphrey was palpable and he would have won if the election had been just a few days later.
© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com
MLLG

Election 2024: Voter Ignorance

George Noga

Election 2024: Voter Ignorance

Voters may be ignorant, but they are not stupid

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 12, 2024

This post continues my analysis of the 2024 election. Most voters don’t know our form of government, wrongly believing it to be a democracy rather than a constitutional republic. This explains why they also misunderstand the Electoral College and the makeup of the Senate. They don’t grasp the dangers inherent in a pure democracy and fail to understand why the will of a bare majority cannot be instantly actualized.

I voted #USelections2020

The founders didn’t see voter ignorance as a problem because the federal government had little power over the lives of citizens. Politics was mostly local and voters often knew the candidates personally or, at a minimum, knew firsthand of their reputation. Furthermore, voting was limited to a small cohort of educated white male landowners. Under federalism, senators were not elected; they were appointed by states.

Everything has changed. Government at all levels exercises enormous power over our lives; it accounts for nearly 40% of GDP versus 5% in the early years of the republic. Senators are now elected directly and few voters have any firsthand knowledge of the candidates. There is universal suffrage and issues have become much more complex.

Just how serious of a problem is voter ignorance? Is it problematic that voters spend much more time comparison shopping for a new TV than on candidates and issues? Such voters are behaving rationally because their decision about a TV makes an immediate and significant difference in their lives – in terms of both cost and quality. In contrast, the chance their vote will make any difference is infinitesimal.

Just because voters may be ignorant about the candidates and issues does not mean they are stupid or irrational. Should voters spend countess hours studying the intricacies of foreign trade, immigration and tax policy? There are several ways voters behave in an erudite manner despite being grossly underinformed or misinformed.

  1. Voters rely on political parties and endorsements. Our two major political parties have well defined and long established philosophies of governance. A liberal voter will gravitate toward one party, a conservative voter toward another.
  2. Issues and Media inform voters. Those who rank abortion as the most important issue will vote one way; those who favor limited government, another.
  3. Candidates go to great lengths to define themselves and also their opponents. Even though this process is hackneyed, those who vote based on candidates, rather than parties or issues, have ample basis to decide.
  4. Voters recognize and act on serious problems. When the US is beset with critical problems – social, economic or geopolitical – many voters will vote out those perceived to be responsible regardless of political party.
  5. Peace and prosperity are rewarded. This is the flip side to #4 above. Voters reward success – again, regardless of party. They reward those who make their lives better.
  6. All else being equal, voters will choose an incumbent over a newbie. They adhere to the old maxim – better the fool that you know than the devil you don’t.
  7. Voters reject prolonged one party rule. Even low information voters viscerally grasp one party rule results in complacency and corruption. Since FDR, only Reagan/Bush won three consecutive elections. No party has won four straight (except reconstruction and FDR) since beginning in 1801 with Jefferson.
  8. People vote with their feet. Currently, we are seeing this writ large as voters are fleeing blue states en mass and moving to red states.

As shown above, even no-information voters usually behave rationally according to their established beliefs and interests. The problem is their beliefs are based on a flawed understanding of the relationship between man and the state. They believe in more government and less liberty instead of more liberty and less government.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Election 2024 Update

George Noga

Election 2024 Update

Will Biden and Trump be the nominees?

GEORGE NOGA

DEC 10, 2023

Readers have asked for my take on the 2024 election. For the many new readers of my blog on the Substack platform, I have been involved as a participant and keen observer of politics for nearly 60 years. I have gotten it right (including Trump in 2016) far more than I have whiffed. Read my political bonafides on Substack.

A young African American woman casting her ballot in 1964

Democratic Party Nomination

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Party nominee. One of my favorite aphorisms is that if something cannot go on forever, it won’t. Biden cannot go on forever in his present physical and cognitive state. His deterioration is visible to all and is getting worse. Moreover, the Biden family corruption scandal is closing in on him from all sides. Biden will be forced to drop out of the race for the following reasons:

  • His physical condition, already highly problematic, will deteriorate and he will experience more public episodes of falling, stumbling and fragility.
  • He will continue to degrade cognitively, again with highly public episodes of confusion, mumbling, silence, misspeaking and spinning tall tales.
  • Evidence, already quite abundant, of the Biden family business of corruption, influence peddling, money laundering, tax evasion and bribery will reach such a critical mass that it no longer can be plausibly denied. Evidence of Biden corruption is mounting on a weekly basis and will only get worse.
  • Polling shows Biden losing nationally to Trump and to the other Republican candidates and in nearly all the swing states – by wide and increasing margins.
  • Biden’s support among independents, Hispanics, Arab-Americans, the young, Black males and suburbanites is tanking by double digits and plummeting.
  • Democratic politicians and media are publicly challenging Biden’s fitness. It is only a matter of time until one or more top Democrats (Obama?) speaks out.
  • Biden’s fund raising is anemic; many big donors are holding back.
  • Kamala Harris is a monumental liability; Biden can’t ditch her – but another nominee could. Moreover, there is a good chance she would become president in a Biden second term and would be a electoral disaster for Democrats in 2028.

Biden will hold out as long as possible because he is stubborn; Jill wants to continue being first lady; and (critically) he wants to retain the power to issue pardons for himself, family members and others involved in promoting the Biden brand.

If Not Biden, Who?

The nominee will be Gavin Newsom; there really aren’t other viable choices. Kamala Harris would be a disaster. Also, invoking Occam’s Razor, Newsom is the most logical choice and he is chomping at the bit to enter the race.

I would not rule out Michelle Obama stepping in at the last minute in a brokered convention. That would have two benefits. First, it would solve the Kamala Harris problem. Second, it would leave little time for Michelle to self destruct. I understand Michelle is popular, but that doesn’t translate into an electoral mandate.

Republican Party Nomination

Trump has such a commanding lead, it is difficult to imagine anyone overtaking him. At the date of this post, the only person with even a long shot is Nikki Haley. Ron DeSantis had a shot but blew it. He made four critical errors, all preventable. Note: I like DeSantis, believe he is a great governor and would make a good president.

  1. His campaign misfired at the very beginning due to mismanagement. He hired the wrong political consultants and managers – since replaced.
  2. He ran on social issues. This was unnecessary as he already had established his anti-wokeness bonafides. He should have left Disney alone; there was no upside from piling on. Instead, he should have focused on bread and butter issues.
  3. DeSantis fails to come across as a personable campaigner.
  4. The Florida six-week abortion ban was a gashing, self-inflicted wound.

General Election

Who will win, Trump or Newsom? The plethora of independent and third party candidates muddies the waters. As of now, the following candidates are likely:

  • Independent: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
  • Independent: Cornel West
  • No Labels: Nominee unknown – possibly a Manchin/Romney ticket
  • Green Party: Jill Stein is the likely nominee
  • Libertarian Party: Nominee not yet determined

All the independent and third party movements, except the Libertarian Party, favor Trump as they would draw far more votes from Biden.

The election is over 300 days away and it is far too early for me to opine. But stay tuned to my blog for more about election 2024 and my fearless forecast.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Election 2024 Preview

George Noga

Enduring principles of American politics
GEORGE NOGA
JUN 18, 2023

This is the first of periodic posts about Election 2024. Between now and the election I will offer perspective about the candidates, issues, electoral process, keys to the election and, of course, my fearless forecast of winners and losers. Longtime readers know I have gotten it right most of the time, including Trump in 2016. This post is about why people run for president and some enduring political principles.

a picture of a donkey and a donkey with stars on it

Why run for president?

Have you wondered why so many people, with no realistic chance to win, enter the presidential sweepstakes. It may surprise you that there are many reasons.

  • Positioning for VP or top level appointment. An example is Kamala Harris; Tim Scott also fits in here, although he has an outside chance to grab the brass ring.
  • Positioning for the future. With a strong showing, a candidate might become a strong contender – or even the frontrunner – in the next election cycle.
  • Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Every few election cycles a dark horse unexpectedly catches fire; a good example is Herman Cain in 2012.
  • Establishing national bona fides. A little known local or state official may run to get into the national conversation; examples are Mayor Pete and Tulsi Gabbard.
  • Hoping for a cabinet position or ambassadorship. Most long shot candidates fall into this category; Mayor Pete is a good example.
  • Going for the money. The not-so-hidden aim is to get a lucrative lobbying position, mega book deal, or a seven-figure gig on cable television.
  • Vanity and entitlement. Never underestimate the narcissism and solipsism of politicians. They convince themselves the people eagerly await their candidacy. Marianne Williamson fits this bill as does Gavin Newsom should he run.
  • Stalking horse. The classic example is Eugene McCarthy in 1968 who was a stalking horse for Robert Kennedy. Many believe Robert Kennedy, Jr. fits that category today and is a stalking horse for other candidates to enter the race.
  • Trial run. Candidates wish to test their abilities at fund raising, national politics, debates and organizing and running a presidential campaign.
  • Combination. This fits most candidates not likely to win nomination. They are hoping that, if they make a respectable showing, something good will happen.

Principles of American Politics

American political history and tradition are based on principles that have withstood the test of time. They exert an outsized effect on elections and transcend parties, candidates, issues and events. They are ignored only at great peril.

  • America is a center-right country. Forget this principle and you get a Goldwater or a McGovern. The only center-left candidates elected in the past 80 years are Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden. Carter and Clinton were southern state governors while Obama and Biden ran as unifying centrists.
  • Economics uber alles. Clinton’s mantra “It’s the economy, stupid” was right on track. Voters reward politicians who make them better off.
  • There are no permanent majorities. Demographics, alliances and issues always are in flux. Minority parties adapt; movements, like the Tea Party or Green Party, are subsumed into larger groups. Other than FDR/Truman and reconstruction, no party has retained power for more than 12 consecutive years in the past 230 years.
  • The longer a party is in power, the more likely it is to lose. As noted supra, with few exceptions, no party has retained power more than 3 consecutive terms. Only once in the past 154 years (Reagan/Bush) has a full two-term president been succeeded by a member of his party. Americans understand power corrupts.
  • Incumbency is powerful. In the past 130 years only 3 elected presidents have lost. Americans prefer the fool they know to the devil they don’t.
  • Money is important but not dispositive. Clinton outspent Trump 2 to 1.
  • Polling as we know it is dead. Most polls are skewed to promote one candidate or to suppress the vote of another. Even credible polling organizations can’t get it right due to absence of land lines and voters’ reluctance to respond to pollsters. Real people casting real votes in real elections always trump polls; that’s why the early primaries are so crucial in providing clarity not possible from polling.
  • It is far too early; most Americans don’t focus on elections until after Labor Day. Dukakis led Bush by 17 points in September but Bush won by 7 points. Reagan trailed Carter well into October but won by 10 points and carried 44 states.

     

 

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com