This unscheduled posting responds to reader requests for an election update. Following is my take on where things stand now and for the general election.

Democratic Party Nomination

I stand by my belief that the nominee, more likely than not, will be Gavin Newsome. However, Newsome’s star has begun to fade since my last update in December. He now risks being relegated to the same status as other democrat fallen angels such as Beto O’Rourke and Stacey Abrams.

Although Biden has secured enough votes for the nomination, there remain six long months to navigate before the general election. What’s obvious to anyone paying attention is also obvious to the Democratic Party he-coons, i.e. Biden is greatly diminished and not likely to finish a second term. This means Kamala Harris will become president and lead the party to electoral disaster in 2026 and 2028. Any of the following is likely to result in Biden not becoming the nominee.

• He has more public episodes of falling, incontinence, wandering aimlessly, shaking hands with ghosts and mumbling unintelligibly. Biden navigated the SOTU address because: (1) there was no ad-libbing; (2) he practiced for a week; (3) he was kept up nights to acclimate him to staying up past his bedtime; and (4) he was pumped up with a potent pharmacological smorgasbord.
• Party elders persuade him to step down. It would take someone like Barack Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi.
• Disastrous poll numbers continue or get even worse. His bowing out could be cast as an unselfish act of statesmanship to make it palatable.
• The Chicago Democratic convention gets really ugly and goes rogue.

Debates

There will be no presidential debates if Biden is the nominee. You can put that in the bank. Whether there will be a vice presidential debate is an open question. Democrats are not likely to risk exposing Kamala Harris if it is not necessary.

Lawfare

Democrats will do anything possible to secure at least one conviction before the election so they can label Trump a convicted felon. They don’t care that any conviction almost surely will be reversed on appeal – which would come only after November. The cases against Trump are so pathetically weak it is possible he can get hung juries and/or delay some of the trials until after the election.

However, the jury pools in New York, Washington D.C. and Fulton County are so overwhelmingly progressive, it is likely the Dems can obtain at least one conviction. How much this harms Trump’s electoral prospects is an open question. My guess is there will be some damage but much less than the Dems hope for.

General Election – November 5th

The election will be less about issues and more about ballots. If it is close, the election will be decided by early voting, mail-in voting and ballot harvesting – both legal and illegal. There will be widespread fraud in the dissemination of ballots to millions of people who did not request them. This is how most fraud occurs. Fraud in the counting is not the problem; it is the millions of ballots unaccounted for.

If the election is close, it will not be decided by issues – but by ballots.

The Dems will run on three things: (1) January 6th; (2) abortion; and (3) labelling Trump a convicted felon. The GOP will run on: (1) inflation and the economy; (2) crime; (3) illegal immigration; and (4) Biden’s (if he is the nominee) cognitive state and the specter of Kamala Harris as president. They will run ads with a montage of Biden’s pratfalls interspersed with Kamala Harris giggling uncontrollably.

Who Will Win in November

If the election were today, Trump would win handily against Biden. Trump has made startling inroads few thought possible among Latinos, African-American males, millennials, independents and even suburban women. Trump is ahead in nearly all the swing states and even in the so-called popular vote. Robert Kennedy and the Green Party will draw votes from Biden. The Libertarian Party will hurt Trump; but on balance third parties and independents will hurt Biden more.

But the election is not today; it is 6 months away and Biden may not be the nominee. The outcome of the Dems’ lawfare is unknown but is looking shakier by the week. There will be many unexpected events and likely fake news. Not all of Trump’s support among the demographics listed above is likely to continue.

Most voters don’t focus on the election until after Labor Day and there often are huge swings in October and early November. Carter led Reagan into October but Reagan carried 44 states. Dukakis led Bush by double digits in early October.

Following is my fearless forecast as of April 28, 2024.

• If Trump runs against Biden and most of his support among independents, Latinos, Blacks, youths and women holds, he wins decisively.
• If Trump’s support dwindles among the aforementioned groups, it will be close and come down to who does better at early voting, mail-ins and harvesting.
• If Gavin Newsome or someone else is the nominee, it is too early to opine.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com