MLLG

Spending Crisis Truths

George Noga

                                                                   

The crisis is not economic; it is moral

Spending Crisis Truths

GEORGE NOGA – APR 30, 2023

Much has been written about America’s debt crisis, including by me. I prefer to call it a spending crisis because, absent runaway spending, the deficits and debt would disappear. This post strips away all the superfluous background noise and distills all you need to know about the spending crisis into a few unassailable truths.

Truth #1: America Passed the Point of No Return

When Titanic first hit the iceberg, passengers barely noticed. The ship remained afloat for 4 more hours, but its fate was sealed; there was no way to unhit the iceberg. So it is with the spending crisis. America hit the Debt/GDP iceberg sometime during the past few years when the ratio neared 100% on its way to the moon. As with Titanic, life may appear normal for a while, perhaps even for years; but our fate is sealed. During the thousands of years governments have borrowed money, none with a debt ratio above 100% have recovered without calamity and a lost generation.

Truth #2: Few Understand the Seriousness of the Problem

Only an infinitesimal segment of Americans know what is coming. The spending crisis will not hit home until it affects their daily lives. We are far past possible bromides such as a balanced budget amendment or debt ceiling limitation.

Some economists suggest freezing the Debt/GDP ratio at its current level; however, they have not done the math. To freeze the ratio means debt cannot increase faster than GDP, which is forecast to grow at 2%. That means debt could increase only 2%, or no more than $500B. The CBO estimates the 2023 deficit at $1.4 trillion; meaning spending would have to be slashed $900B to limit the debt increase to $500B, i.e. to freeze the ratio. The entire budget for non-defense discretionary spending is $900B, meaning such spending would have to be cut 100%, and that is merely to freeze the ratio, not to lower it. Raising taxes could plug part of the gap, but that would hurt the economy and slow GDP growth, meaning the spending cuts then would have to be even more that $900B – a vicious circle.

Truth #3: Great Pain Inevitable

No matter what comes, the crisis is existential – to invoke a vastly overworked term. As shown supra, freezing the ratio would mean $900B in cuts (or tax increases) now. If we wait until the US no longer can borrow to finance the deficit, it will be worse by an order of magnitude. The ensuing crisis will have dire geopolitical consequences as well as likely social unrest as Social Security, Medicare and countless other government programs are scaled back or eliminated. There would be no borrowing capacity in event of a natural disaster or war. Even a debt default would not provide much relief as future spending still would have to be brought into balance.

Truth #4: Debt Limit Determined by Markets Not Congress

In the end, Congress is irrelevant. The real US debt limit is determined by markets. When there are no buyers for government debt, the jig is up. It is possible markets already have begun to speak. Foreign governments are now net sellers of US debt and high interest rates may, in part, be attributable to an added default risk premium.

Truth #5: If Something Can’t go on Forever, It Won’t

The spending crisis is a poster child for the above quote from economist Herb Stein. As shown supra, it is impossible even to freeze the ratio. That means it is destined to get worse each year until it goes into a death spiral.

Truth #6: Crisis is Moral – Not Economic

I call it a spending crisis, but at its heart it is a moral crisis. Americans chose – whether consciously or unconsciously matters not – to take from our children and our grandchildren rather than to control our spending. We refused to make tough choices, falsely believing we could buy social peace. We elected politicians who promised us the moon was made of Stilton and whose favorite exercise is kicking cans down the road. We chose – and are continuing to choose – to condemn our progeny to a dystopian Clockwork Orange future.

Worst of all, we stole from future generations, not to save America from natural disaster, world war or Armageddon, but to pay for a perpetual party, which continues unabated today even as Americans whistle past the graveyard.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Debt Limit Kabuki

George Noga

The ending is preordained

Debt Limit Kabuki

GEORGE NOGA – APR 23, 2023

The spending crisis is one of my signature issues; the current hot button is the debt limit. Republicans want to use the debt limit as a wedge to reduce spending, while Democrats want a straight up or down vote on raising the debt ceiling. But don’t be fooled by all the hullabaloo and hyperbole that will play out between now and summer. It is a kabuki, i.e. a stylized ritual mixing drama with tradition.

To be sure, there will be drama. Will the GOP be able to hold its caucus together, given its razor-thin margin, when they are being demonized daily by Democrats and their media sycophants? Will their resolve hold when they are being accused – as they surely will be – of shredding Social Security and Medicare, starving school children and throwing granny over a cliff? What will the Dems offer in the way of greater fiscal responsibility? Will government services be cut – if so, which ones? Will the government default on the debt? Finally, what will the final deal look like?

But, like any good kabuki, all the players already know their parts and the ending is preordained. Following is how the kabuki is scripted.

  • House Republicans stay united until things get really dicey. As vital government services are cut and Dems run vicious attack ads in the districts of vulnerable Republicans, GOP moderates pressure Speaker McCarthy to make a deal.
  • Biden will cut government services that most directly affect citizens with the aim of making their lives as uncomfortable as possible. He will close national parks during the peak summer vacation season. He will cut the FAA, reducing air travel to a trickle. He maliciously will grind the economy to a halt.
  • Biden will go to Defcon-1 to threaten default on the debt and all that augers; but there will be no actual default. Section Four of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution prevents the government from defaulting on principal or interest. Hence, default is a bridge too far – even for the Biden Administration.
  • In the end, both sides get what they want; the debt ceiling is raised and phantom spending cuts are made. Americans are beguiled into believing something meaningful happened and that America is on a sounder fiscal trajectory. Everyone involved claims victory and government returns to business as usual.

The final deal will include some putative spending reductions that amount to much less than meets the eye. The phantom savings will consist of:

  1. Funds already appropriated but not yet spent. These funds would not have been spent anyway, and this so-called reduction is completely illusory.
  2. Savings in the out years of the 10-year budget window. These back-end loaded cuts are legerdemain and can (will) be reinstated in future years.
  3. Faux reductions based on inflated future projected increases. For example, if spending was projected to increase 8%, they cut it to 5% and claim a huge cut.
  4. Various accounting artifices, gimmicks and one-time adjustments.
  5. Tax increases (mainly symbolic) to assuage Dems so that they can claim victory. However, there is a good chance the tax increases will never materialize.
  6. Real and immediate spending cuts, if any, are small and insignificant.

What Will Be the Effect on America’s Fiscal Trajectory?

The debt limit kabuki will be nothing but fiscal maskirovka and prestidigitation. There will be much sound and fury; but, in the end, America’s fiscal trajectory will change only imperceptibly. Cuts to entitlements, defense and interest on the debt all are off the table. That leaves only about $900 billion, or 15%, of non-defense discretionary spending. Even if Congress could cut 10%, that would be only $90 billion per year – a tiny ripple in America’s fiscal pond. If spending returns to its pre-pandemic level (GOP position), the deficit trajectory also would be unchanged. You will know Congress is serious only when it tackles entitlements.

Remember, as the high theater of the debt limit kabuki plays out to its preordained conclusion over the next several months, you already know the ending!

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Titanic Myths

George Noga

Setting the record straight

Titanic Myths

GEORGE NOGA – APR 16, 2023

Although Titanic sank 111 years ago yesterday, many Promethean myths (Prometheus was a Titan) reverberate even today. Most accounts (especially the DiCaprio film) are ignorant, dishonest and politically motivated. This post sets the record straight.

Myth: Capitalism (Greed) Caused the Loss of Life

The PC narrative is White Star Lines (WSL) did not have enough lifeboats due to greed (cost) or aesthetics. The real blame lies with inept government regulation by the British Board of Trade (BOT). The designer, builder and WSL all deferred to the BOT about the number of lifeboats, as it was the unchallenged authority. However, BOT regulations were 20 years old and enacted when 10,000 tons and 20 lifeboats was the norm; Titanic was 46,238 tons. Bureaucrats were rewarded for issuing new regulations, not updating old ones. No one challenged the BOT. Once government becomes involved, common sense and personal responsibility disappear.

Myth: First Class Passengers Got Preferential Treatment

Dissecting the data, 74% of women and 20% of men survived. However, 44% of first class passengers were women versus 23% third class. When adjusting for gender, the survival rates between first and third class were about the same. A third class female was 41% more likely to survive than a first class male. Third class passengers were more reluctant to leave the ship and part with baggage; also, their location aboard ship made survival more problematic. When third class passengers reached the boat deck, they were accorded the same treatment as all others. Survival was not about class; it was about women and children – nearly all of whom were saved.

Myth: Male aggression Hurt Survival of Women and Children

The number of men who survived is cited as evidence of male aggression. There was lifeboat capacity for all women and children and 550 men. There were many more men than women on board. If one man were loaded onto a lifeboat for each woman and child, all women and children would have been saved. Moreover, lifeboats would have been loaded quicker and with less fear, keeping families together and saving more lives. Male behavior, far from being aggressive, resulted in more than 200 fewer men surviving than should have been the case.

Myth: The Media – Then and Now – Fairly Report the Facts

Most contemporaneous media accounts were tainted by laziness, i.e. the failure to properly understand the data. Present day media stories hew to a politically correct narrative of blaming capitalism, greed, class warfare and male aggression for the calamity. The movie Titanic falsely depicted third class passengers forcibly barricaded to keep them from reaching lifeboats. Nor was anyone shot. The crew and passengers were stereotyped in the worst possible way, despite acting heroically and fearlessly in the fact of near-certain death. Note: Fox (which made the movie) has since apologized to families of those falsely portrayed in the movie.

Enduring Lessons of Titanic

First and Foremost, the Titanic disaster was a failure of government, not of capitalism. The media are feckless and lazy; it is far easier and more dramatic to blame the ship’s designer, builder and owner rather than an amorphous, faceless gaggle of bureaucrats. Nearly without exception, the media falsely portrays a politically correct narrative that blames capitalism, class warfare and toxic masculinity.

Source Note: Data for survival rates were taken from the formal investigation conducted by the British government as reported on several websites.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Equity Means Socialism

George Noga

What if everyone was equal?

Equity Means Socialism
By GEORGE NOGA – APRIL 9, 2023

Collectivism has gone by many names: socialism, communism, fascism, Marxism, democratic socialism, Utopianism, Fabianism, progressivism – and now, the most mellifluous term of them all – equity. Despite its euphony, equity is just another code word intended for maskirovka and to make socialism palatable – just as politically correct hospitals refer to death as a negative patient outcome.

The horrors of socialism, in all its names and iterations, has been the subject of dystopian works such as Atlas Shrugged, Animal Farm, 1984 and Brave New World. Herein, I take a fresh look at what equity could look like in the 21st century.

Harrison Bergeron

Kurt Vonnegut’s short story, Harrison Bergeron, published in 1961 provides one spine-chilling perspective. It is set in the year 2081, after the 213th Amendment to the Constitution is ratified making every American equal. A powerful new government czar, the Handicapper-General, strictly enforces the law so that everyone performs at the lowest common level. Everyone is handicapped. Those who are good looking must wear masks; those who are strong or athletic must carry weights; those who are smart must wear earbuds to disrupt their thought process. For example, more proficient ballerinas are weighted down and masked to counteract their gracefulness and appearance so the audience won’t feel bad about their own appearance.

The protagonist is 14-year-old Harrison Bergeron, a genius, tall, incredibly handsome, athletic, strong, artistic and brave. The Handicapper-General forces Harrison to wear earphones, glasses to cut his vision by 50%, disfiguring makeup, blackened teeth, a red rubber nose and 300 pounds of weight to compensate for his prodigious strength. However, Harrison decides to live unimpeded by government interference. Note: There have been several movies made of Harrison Bergeron.

Achieving Perfect Equity

Following is my idea for how perfect equity could be achieved today? The most progressive minds in America could create a master algorithm incorporating all known markers of success and failure. The algorithm would take into account, inter alia, DNA, race, gender, sexual orientation, height, weight, IQ, life expectancy and appearance. Exogenous factors in the algorithm would be birth place, social class, family income and educational level.

The end result of the master algorithm would be a polygenic score assigned to everyone at birth. Those with positive scores would pay a polygenic tax, while those with negative scores would receive a corresponding benefit. The taxes and benefits would vary in direct proportion to how much the scores were positive or negative. The scores would be reevaluated and adjusted periodically so that any inequalities that emerged would be corrected. Done correctly, this could make everyone equal.

Mythical Germanic Kingdom

In the real world perfect equality is a chimera. If all wealth were equalized, within a few years the wealth distribution would return to the status quo ante. Equity is merely the latest stalking horse for socialism. Interestingly, no sci-fi (or other) writers have ever written a positive story about a society where everyone is perfectly equal.

Something in the human condition makes some people (usually those with nothing to lose) dream of collectivism – the term du jour being equity. This post provided a peek at what perfect equity might look like – Harrison Bergeron with a 300-pound weight and algorithmic polygenic scores. How much of that kind of equity do you want?

Despite the failure of all forms of collectivism throughout the ages, progressives dream of a world, like the mythical Germanic kingdom, where candy grows on trees, lemonade flows in rivers and the fattest, ugliest and stupidest person is king.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

 

 

MLLG

A Tale of Two States: New York and Florida

George Noga

New York spends $6,400 (125%) more per person than Florida – and for what?

A Tale of Two States: New York and Florida

By: George Noga – March 26, 2023

Refugees are fleeing en masse from NY to FL, and it is easy to see why. The mystery is why everyone doesn’t. Let’s begin with some numbers which reveal much (but definitely not all) of the calculus for bolting from NY. A resident of Miami pays no (as in zip, zero, nada) state or local income tax, while denizens of the big apple pay 14.8%. New Yorkers pay 8.875% in sales tax versus 6% in Miami. Florida’s constitution caps residential real estate taxes which generally hover around only 1% of value.

The NY budget calls for spending $227 billion ($11,500 per resident); the FL budget contains spending of $115 billion ($5,100 per capita). NY spends twice as much as FL even though FL has 2.5 million more people. Florida’s economy is growing at twice the rate of NY and its unemployment rate is half that of NY. Estate taxes in NY are 16%, while FL has no state inheritance or estate tax. And a moving van costs 500% more in NY. But there is much more to the story than is revealed by the numbers alone.

New York is where safety, civility, culture and liberty go to die.

Paying double in taxes might be okay if NY was a Garden of Eden and its sky-high taxes resulted in la dolce vita for its inhabitants. However, New York has toxic governance based on identity politics, Kafkaesque regulation, stratospheric living costs, mandatory unionization and crumbling infrastructure. Its failed government schools are run by unions and are petri dishes for dysfunction and social pathologies. Crime is rampant while gun control is uber-strict. There is massive public debt, unfunded liabilities and tanking credit ratings. NY bollixed the pandemic response and, in obeisance to teachers’ unions, shuttered schools for years causing irreparable harm.

New York is a woke sanctuary state that tolerates homelessness, open drug use and human filth. NY decriminalizes arson, looting and shoplifting, while defunding police and eliminating cash bail. NY pits people against each other based on race, income, age, ethnicity and gender. NY’s stagnating economy hemorrhages its most productive citizens. NY schools teach the 1619 Project, CRT and encourage young children to question their gender without parental involvement. Housing is scarce, dilapidated and costly with rent control and eviction bans. Environmentalism run amok doubles the cost of energy. New York is where safety, civility, culture and liberty go to die.

Each and every one of the horrors of life in New York listed above is non-existent in the free state of Florida. Will the last person to leave NY kindly turn off the lights?

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

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Revenge of the Polar Bears

George Noga

There are 600% more polar bears now than there were in 1950 and they are thriving.

Revenge of the Polar Bears

By: George Noga – March 19, 2023

Polar bears are the indelible symbol of the climate change religion. It did not happen by accident. The photographer (Cristina Mettermeir) who took the now-iconic photo of a scrawny polar bear on an ice floe was looking for a compelling symbol to illustrate the effects of global warming. She zeroed in on a gaunt polar bear scavenging for food on a desolate landscape. She succeeded far beyond what she could have imagined.

Her photo was printed in National Geographic with the caption: “This is what climate change looks like.” The magazine wrote that melting sea ice, caused by warming, was responsible for starving polar bears. It was viewed by 2.5 billion people (the most ever) on the magazine’s website and had its intended effect, i.e. horror and a public outcry demanding action. The photographer later admitted there was no evidence the bear was gaunt due to climate change. National Geographic also walked back the story.

Far from being threatened, polar bears are thriving and resurgent

This one iconic image of a gaunt polar bear did more to energize the climate alarmist movement than any scientific report before or since. Much of the mainstream media and large segments of the public continue to believe the myth of near-extinct, starving polar bears adrift on arctic ice floes. Climate alarmist scientists predicted 67% of polar bears would disappear due to warming. The numbers paint a far different picture.

Recent studies place the polar bear population at more than 30,000. This is up from 5,000 in 1950 and 8,000 in the 1960s and 1970s. The polar bear population is up 600% from the 1950s and up nearly 400% from the period 1960-1980. These data come from the Polar Bear Specialist Group within the International Union for the Conservation of Nature – a progressive international body. You can easily check this out online.

It is beyond debate that polar bears, far from being threatened, are thriving. However, there are lessons that go beyond resurgent polar bears. The climate alarmist religion is shown to be founded on junk science, scare tactics and lies. Science has become hyper politicized and is no longer credible. Corrupt fact checkers refuse to verify the polar bear population even though it is from an esteemed body of environmental scientists. Climate alarmists follow the science only when they believe it supports their cause.

Polar bear propaganda is just the tip of the iceberg – pun intended. Climate alarmists promoted the polar bear myth as proof positive of manmade warming. Now that polar bears have gotten their revenge, will climate alarmists accept they are wrong?

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Our next post is March 26; we compare New York to Florida.

More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

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States Make Hash of Marijuana Legalization

George Noga

Legalization has failed to solve any of the problems and has created new ones.

States Make Hash of Marijuana Legalization

By: George Noga – March 12, 2023

Consistent with our libertarian bent, MLLG favors legalization of most drugs including marijuana. But we also favor legalization for a slew of practical reasons including:

  1. Enhanced product safety
  2. Regulation and disclosure of dosage
  3. Lowering the cost
  4. Quit enriching criminal drug cartels
  5. Remove economic incentives for illicit distribution
  6. Eliminate turf wars and resultant mayhem
  7. Increase respect for the law
  8. End drug-related corruption of police and judges
  9. Stop drug dealers from becoming role models
  10. Reduce corruption of entire narco states
  11. Focus US foreign policy away from drug issues

Currently 21 states have legalized marijuana, although it remains illegal under federal law. Instead of making things better, such as by accomplishing the benefits listed above, legalization has failed to solve any of those problems and has created new ones, an outcome we hitherto believed impossible. We now have the worst of both worlds!

No state has gotten legalization right, but New York, California and Colorado have made the biggest hash of it. Unlike alcohol and tobacco, states have taxed and regulated marijuana so heavily that the illegal traffic has not subsided and actually has been enhanced. Instead of being put out of business, black markets are thriving.

Biden wants to impose a new 25% federal tax and hyperregulation.

The craziness is legion. New York is giving preference for obtaining a license to former drug dealers and convicted felons under the wacky theory their experience better equips them for the now-legal market. California taxes and regulates marijuana so heavily it can’t compete with the black market, which is on steroids. Turf wars have expanded to include violence over access to water. It is so bad some of the largest legal pot operators are pulling out of California, Oregon and Colorado. Thousands of legal marijuana shops in California are closing due to state taxes of up to 80%.

To top off the pot craziness, the Biden administration is proposing a 163-page bill imposing an additional 25% federal tax and horse-choking new federal regulations.

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The next post March 19 is entitled “Revenge of the Polar Bears”.

More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

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Was the Bethlehem Innkeeper Greedy? The Grinch Who Stole the First Christmas

George Noga

Higher prices result in more people getting more rooms than if prices were static.

Was the Bethlehem Innkeeper Greedy?

The Grinch Who Stole the First Christmas

By: George Noga – December 4, 2022

This year’s Christmas posting is about the innkeeper in whose manger Jesus was born. Last year (posting dated 12/5/21) was about Ebeneezer Scrooge; in 2020 (12/13/20) it was about Christmas Eve 1941 following Pearl Harbor. In 2019 (12/15/19) we featured America’s greatest Christmas story; in 2018 it was lessons from Christmas shopping (12/16/18). All these are on our website: www.mllg.us and worth a read. Note: The genesis for this post was an article forwarded by a reader, but the words are our own.

The story of the birth of Jesus lies at the heart of Christmas. One prevalent narrative is that Jesus was born in a manger because the innkeeper raised prices due to the surge of visitors for the census. The innkeeper often is portrayed as a greedy, and even evil, capitalist. But was the innkeeper truly greedy? The following is from Luke 2-7.

“Caesar Augustus decreed a census be taken and everyone go to their town

to register. . . So, Joseph and Mary, who was with child, went to Bethlehem.

While there, Mary gave birth in a manger as there was no room at the inn.”

The Grinch Who Stole the First Christmas

The Roman government forced people to travel long distances at their own expense and at great risk to register for the census – for the purpose of taxation. Caesar knew there would be great danger and hardship but was oblivious. Conducting a census, even 2,022 years ago, could have been accomplished with much less human misery.

Why was it necessary to require travel? Why couldn’t people register where they lived? The Romans had a vaunted postal system that could have facilitated the census without hardship. Clearly, this was an egregious abuse of power. The hubris of government was responsible for Jesus being born in a manger instead of in his own home. It is incandescently clear that the grinch who stole the first Christmas was government.

Was the Innkeeper Greedy or Benevolent?

If the innkeeper raised prices due to the surge of travelers registering for the census, would that have been greedy or even evil? This situation is no different than the price of hotel rooms during a hurricane or a big football game. Prices convey valuable economic information. By adjusting prices when demand surges, consumers benefit.

Higher prices incentivize travelers to stay with friends or relatives or to lodge farther away where prices are lower. Some families that otherwise might have taken two rooms may decide to make do with one room. Some people may decide to stay for fewer nights. Higher prices would sharply increase the supply of rooms as many local residents may decide to rent out rooms in their home, or even their entire home.

The price mechanism assures more people will get more rooms than if prices remained static. Scarce hotel (or inn) rooms are allocated in the most economically efficient manner. Those who value rooms the most get them. Far from being evil, higher prices enable the market to allocate scarce resources to the benefit of all consumers.

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The narrative of a greedy innkeeper is frequently the topic of Christmas sermons and school plays. It is economic ignorance and anti-capitalist drivel. The grinch who stole the first Christmas was government – and nothing has changed in 2,022 years.

BEST WISHES TO ALL OUR READERS FOR A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND FOR A NEW YEAR WITH MORE LIBERTY AND LESS GOVERNMENT!

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

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Continuing Coverage of Climate Change. . .  The Cure Is Worse Than the Disease

George Noga

Climate activists are like Dr. Kevorkian; western nations are his willing victims.

Continuing Coverage of Climate Change. . .

The Cure Is Worse Than the Disease

By: George Noga – November 27, 2022

Climate change is a signature issue, but this is our first climate post since July 2021. This post updates our position about man-made warming. The big news is that we now conclude that climate activism will cause greater harm to humanity than climate change – and by a wide margin. Following is what the science tells us.

The earth is warming, and mankind exerts a warming influence.

Anything beyond the above sentence is not science; it’s that simple. The earth has been warming for 160 years. Although humans exert a warming influence, it is not possible to know how much warming is attributable to mankind. We believe anthropogenic causes are an inconsequential part of overall warming, but it is impossible to be sure. We also believe many anti-science myths that have gained currency are not true:

  • Hurricanes are not more frequent or severe than 100 years ago.
  • Floods have not increased over the past 70 years.
  • Greenland’s ice sheet is shrinking no more rapidly than 80 years ago.
  • Heat waves in the US are no more common than they were in 1900.
  • The amount of land burned each year by wildfires is less than 120 years ago.
  • Warming has many benefits; global greening has vastly improved agriculture.
  • Deaths from heat have increased, but there are 20 times less deaths from cold.
  • There is no increase in severe weather events compared to 100 years ago.
  • Climate change does not pose an existential threat to humanity.
  • The Paris climate accord will have zero climate effect even if targets are met.
  • The recent climate legislation will lower temperature .0009 degrees by 2100.

It has become apparent that so-called solutions being proffered for climate change, a/k/a warming, will cause far more harm to humanity than the perceived problem. Following are some of the ways climate activists’ policies harm mankind.

Climate is a common global resource. It matters not what the US and western nations do if China, India, Africa and developing nations don’t join in. We are unilaterally squandering precious economic resources for a chimera. This is a classic “tragedy of the commons” scenario which we fail to grasp. There are 3.5 billion people without reliable sources of electricity. While climate alarmists consternate over a phony existential crisis 100 years from now, poor people face a real existential crisis today.

We are squandering trillions today on green pork to (maybe) achieve

infinitesimal reductions in temperature 100 years in the future. 

Even the middle class is forced to make tough economic tradeoffs due to skyrocketing energy prices. Costs surge, while economic growth declines. Emissions is increasingly an issue concerning only the elite. As demonstrated by the war in Ukraine, failure to produce energy in the west poses geopolitical risks, puts us at the mercy of dictators and heightens the risk of WMD use. Climate activists’ obsession with EVs makes us dependent on extractive minerals (lithium, cobalt) found mostly in unfriendly climes and mined by child and slave labor while wreaking grave environmental harm.

Climate monomania already causes energy nightmares. Reliable electric power no longer can be taken for granted. Green regulations, subsidies and mandates are causing shortages and driving up prices – by more than 100% in much of the US. Our living standards are endangered, while we are empowering Putin, Maduro and the ayatollahs.

The greatest damage is to western economies which are being savaged by wasteful spending on green energy in a quixotic attempt to cut emissions. Billions of people are being harmed today in pursuit of a wrongheaded and impossible dream. The trillions wasted on green pork come at the expense of food security, clean water, disease control, and electricity for billions of people. People in poverty in Africa do not need solar panels made with slave labor; they need food, water and health care now.

Last, to the limited extent warming is anthropogenic, it will be solved within 100 years via population decline, and without spending any money. Demographics is destiny.

Correlation is not Causation – Women’s Hemlines

The go-to argument for climate activists always is a graph showing temperature and CO2 rising in lockstep, with starting and ending points carefully selected for maximum impact. That’s all they have. If we could choose the starting and ending points, we could make the graph show anything. It is not reasonable that an established 160-year secular warming trend abruptly ended and was replaced by an identical anthropogenic warming trend. Correlation is not causation. We could replace the CO2 data on the graph with women’s hemlines to “prove” hemlines are the true cause of warming.

As Toynbee stated, “Civilizations die from suicide, not murder“. Climate activists are like Dr. Kevorkian, and western societies are his willing – make that eager – victims.

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The First Thanksgiving in America

George Noga

The enduring lesson of Thanksgiving is the triumph of freedom over socialism.

The First Thanksgiving in America

By: George Noga – November 20, 2021

This Thanksgiving, as your family gathers to celebrate, regale them with the indelible lessons of the first Thanksgiving in America and not with the usual feel-good, warm, fuzzy, multi-cultural and politically correct narrative of Pilgrims sharing their first harvest and peacefully celebrating with their Wampanoag neighbors. This fusty canard about Thanksgiving is mostly false and offers no enduring life lessons.

The Pilgrims did not invite the Indians to the first Thanksgiving 

The Wampanoags were not invited to the harvest feast but crashed the party after it had begun, not to celebrate but to remind the Pilgrims they were there at their mercy. The relationship turned violent soon thereafter. Native Americans regard Thanksgiving as a tragedy leading to genocide, loss of land and slavery. Americans have been taught a story that is historically incorrect and that ignores the true lessons of Thanksgiving.

The True and Enduring Lessons of Thanksgiving

Following is the authentic story of Thanksgiving in America and its timeless lessons about human nature that speak to us even today. It is an inspiring and uplifting story about human survival, adaptation and eventual triumph over starvation and death.

Once upon a time, good and righteous people seeking a better life came to settle in America; they had sincere and lofty ideas about how they would govern themselves in the new world. They believed that sharing all work and benefits equally was just and even noble. They strove gallantly to make such a socialist system work.

The Pilgrims starved under socialism but prospered with capitalism

But after enduring social dissonance and unfathomable hardships, they came to the realization that a system of communal property is incompatible with human nature. They quickly took decisive action and instituted private property rights. The next harvest resulted in a veritable cornucopia, and they held a feast to celebrate. Today, we celebrate this triumph of freedom over socialism as the first Thanksgiving in America.

The authentic Thanksgiving narrative is about early Americans overcoming starvation, death and collectivism. It is about understanding that socialism always results in starvation amidst plenty. It is about understanding that severing the link between work and benefit is contrary to human nature. It is about understanding that socialism is such a perversion that people choose starvation over living and working communally.

People in Plymouth (and Jamestown) literally chose death over socialism. Yet, all these same people who, one year earlier, starved under socialism suddenly became industrious, inventive and prosperous when they had property rights. And that, dear readers, is the authentic narrative of the first Thanksgiving in America!

A HAPPY AND AUTHENTIC THANKSGIVIING TO ALL OUR READERS

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