The Depopulation Bomb

May 12, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

The Depopulation Bomb

The US may have more people than China by 2100

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 12, 2024

Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book, The Population Bomb, incited a global panic about overpopulation, alleging billions would die of starvation. Ehrlich had it bass ackward. Mankind is facing a population collapse of biblical proportion. Following are some of the highlights. For more information, please see my post of February 14, 2021 entitled “The Global Population Collapse”; it is available on my website: www.mllg.us.

Ghost towns proliferate

US population may surpass China’s by 2100 and certainly will do so by 2124.¹
World population, now 8 billion, will peak in 40 years at 9.7 billion and then decrease to 7.5 billion by 2100 before plunging to around 5 billion by 2124.² Global population could plummet to 2 billion by 2300 on its way to oblivion.³
Population collapse is more pernicious than population gain. As population plunges, it also ages rapidly and reversing it becomes nearly impossible.
To the extent manmade global warming exists, it will be 100% solved within 100 years by population collapse and all without spending any money.

US May Surpass China in Population by 2100

Today’s population of China is 1.4 billion and the US is 336 million; China has one billion more people. Nonetheless, it is not implausible that the US will be more populous in 74 years, or by 2100. It is near certain the US will surpass China within 100 years, or by 2124. This is astounding, but such is the power of demographics.

The best estimates for China’s population in 2100 are between 488 million (UN low variant) and 525 million (Shanghai Academy and Victoria University in Australia). The best estimates for the US in 2100 are the UN mid to high variants which is between 400 million and 543 million. Within 100 years, or by 2124, it is near certain the US will be more populous, approaching 500 million to China’s 300 to 400 million.

China’s fertility rate is 1.0, meaning its population will be halved every generation. In contrast, the US fertility rate is 1.7, but tens of millions with high fertility rates are being added via immigration – including from China.

World Population Peaks in 40 Years and Then Plunges

Global population, currently 8.0 billion, will peak circa 2065 at 9.7 billion and then begin an inexorable and precipitous decline to around 5 billion by 2124, or within 100 years. Per the UN study, global population could be as low as 2.3 billion by 2300. Demographics is destiny and human behavior, once established, is slow to change.

China alone will have one billion fewer people. Even though China abandoned the one-child policy, it has not affected fertility, which remains stubbornly anemic. Having children is primarily driven by economics and as populations become more affluent, the economic calculus is for fewer children.

Population Collapse is Nearly Impossible to Reverse

As population collapses, it also ages precipitously. Women of childbearing age become a much smaller cohort of the population. Trying to reverse a population decline with an old population is nigh impossible. Many demographers believe Earth’s population never again will approach current levels.

“Depopulation will completely solve climate change to the extent it is anthropogenic and it will do so without spending a nickel. We must immediately stop squandering trillions of dollars when a total solution to climate change is staring us squarely in the face.”

Consider life with virtually no aunts, uncles, siblings and cousins. There will be too few health care workers to care for a huge cohort of elderly. There will be only two workers to support each retiree. Many pension plans will fail. When retirees cash out their IRAs, who will buy? From where will governments derive their funding?

Silver Linings from Population Collapse

Population implosion has serendipitous benefits. First and foremost, it will completely solve climate change to the extent it is anthropogenic. Fewer people means less CO2. Even if everyone is much better off economically and uses more energy, depopulation will be so drastic that greenhouse gas emissions will be less than today. We need immediately to stop squandering trillions on ineffective feel-good measures when a solution to climate change is staring us squarely in the face.

In addition to solving climate change, depopulation will result in much of the planet being rewilded and the environment reverting to a pristine condition.

Although depopulation will not begin to occur for decades, the die is cast. There are actions humanity should take today – most notably to stop wasting money on climate change. Depopulation cannot be stopped. Demographics is destiny!

Projection by Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, which has a history of being accurate.
United Nations Study entitled “World Population to 2300”.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis based on a constant fertility rate of 1.84, the fertility rate projected for 2100. Note: Most wealthy countries today have fertility rates under 1.5.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024: Voter Ignorance

May 12, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024: Voter Ignorance

Voters may be ignorant, but they are not stupid

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 12, 2024

This post continues my analysis of the 2024 election. Most voters don’t know our form of government, wrongly believing it to be a democracy rather than a constitutional republic. This explains why they also misunderstand the Electoral College and the makeup of the Senate. They don’t grasp the dangers inherent in a pure democracy and fail to understand why the will of a bare majority cannot be instantly actualized.

The founders didn’t see voter ignorance as a problem because the federal government had little power over the lives of citizens. Politics was mostly local and voters often knew the candidates personally or, at a minimum, knew firsthand of their reputation. Furthermore, voting was limited to a small cohort of educated white male landowners. Under federalism, senators were not elected; they were appointed by states.

Everything has changed. Government at all levels exercises enormous power over our lives; it accounts for nearly 40% of GDP versus 5% in the early years of the republic. Senators are now elected directly and few voters have any firsthand knowledge of the candidates. There is universal suffrage and issues have become much more complex.

Just how serious of a problem is voter ignorance? Is it problematic that voters spend much more time comparison shopping for a new TV than on candidates and issues? Such voters are behaving rationally because their decision about a TV makes an immediate and significant difference in their lives – in terms of both cost and quality. In contrast, the chance their vote will make any difference is infinitesimal.

Just because voters may be ignorant about the candidates and issues does not mean they are stupid or irrational. Should voters spend countess hours studying the intricacies of foreign trade, immigration and tax policy? There are several ways voters behave in an erudite manner despite being grossly underinformed or misinformed.

Voters rely on political parties and endorsements. Our two major political parties have well defined and long established philosophies of governance. A liberal voter will gravitate toward one party, a conservative voter toward another.
Issues and Media inform voters. Those who rank abortion as the most important issue will vote one way; those who favor limited government, another.
Candidates go to great lengths to define themselves and also their opponents. Even though this process is hackneyed, those who vote based on candidates, rather than parties or issues, have ample basis to decide.
Voters recognize and act on serious problems. When the US is beset with critical problems – social, economic or geopolitical – many voters will vote out those perceived to be responsible regardless of political party.
Peace and prosperity are rewarded. This is the flip side to #4 above. Voters reward success – again, regardless of party. They reward those who make their lives better.
All else being equal, voters will choose an incumbent over a newbie. They adhere to the old maxim – better the fool that you know than the devil you don’t.
Voters reject prolonged one party rule. Even low information voters viscerally grasp one party rule results in complacency and corruption. Since FDR, only Reagan/Bush won three consecutive elections. No party has won four straight (except reconstruction and FDR) since beginning in 1801 with Jefferson.
People vote with their feet. Currently, we are seeing this writ large as voters are fleeing blue states en mass and moving to red states.

As shown above, even no-information voters usually behave rationally according to their established beliefs and interests. The problem is their beliefs are based on a flawed understanding of the relationship between man and the state. They believe in more government and less liberty instead of more liberty and less government.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Spending Crisis Has Begun

May 5, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Spending Crisis Has Begun

America is being forever transformed

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 5, 2024

I have been writing about the spending crisis for many years. I began by explaining how to avoid it; this was followed by warnings it was imminent. More recently, I wrote America had crossed the point of no return. During the past year, I debated whether or not the crisis had begun. Now – for the first time – I boldly declare the crisis has begun. In recent weeks dire warnings also have been issued by Jamie Dimon, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CBO and Mises Wire.

US Government Bankruptcy Petition

In past blogs, I noted the crisis could begin gradually, or might suddenly be triggered by an unforeseen event. I now believe both will happen. More to the point, I believe the crisis already has begun gradually and there also will be a future sudden trigger, i.e. a Minsky Moment, after which nothing will be the same. For more information about Minsky Moments, please see my post dated February 4, 2023 titled “Watch for the Minsky Moment” in Substack archives and also on my website: www.mllg.us.

Why the Crisis has Begun

My deciding factor in declaring the crisis has begun is that it is having a discernible impact on markets. The ugly specter of unsustainable spending, and its concomitant debt, is making current interest rates higher than they otherwise would be. This has profound effects across the entire economy. It affects, inter alia, inflation, energy, mortgages, new construction and credit card debt. The present impact of the debt crisis, although real, may be moderate, but it will get worse – much worse.

Individuals, institutions and countries believe the Fed will be forced to monetize the debt, i.e. to print money. Consequently, they are demanding higher interest rates and much shorter maturities. This, of course, jacks up interest payments on the debt, which leads to more borrowing and then to higher rates – a classic vicious circle. Other indicia the spending crisis already has begun are:

$7.6 trillion of debt must be rolled over within 12 months. Treasury will have to hike rates to unload this debt. Why buy now if you can get higher rates soon?
Recent Treasury auctions have experienced considerable investor pushback.
This FY interest on the debt will consume 20% of government revenue. How much higher can this go before the market for US debt dries up entirely?
One major credit rating agency (Moody’s) has US Treasury securities on negative credit watch, i.e. they are about to downgrade them.
Foreigners have scaled back purchases of Treasuries by 30% in recent years.
Mainstream media reports about the debt spiral have increased dramatically while simultaneously becoming more apocalyptic in tone. The headline of one article was “As the US Treasury Runs Out of Creditors, Its Options Dwindle”.

Now that the spending crisis has begun, the next thing to watch for is the Minsky Moment, i.e. the event that makes it unmistakably clear things never again will be the same as before the Minsky Moment. Most likely, the Minsky Moment will be:

Significant downgrade of US debt
Inability of Treasury to roll over the debt, i.e. demand plummets
Statement by a highly credible source that the US is headed for default
Debt ratio and/or the share of interest expense to revenue reaches (or it becomes dead obvious soon will reach) obscene levels; think Zimbabwe
A sudden and unexpected event that, in and of itself, may not be significant but goes viral and by the end of the day the market for Treasury debt evaporates

Dire Warnings from Mainstream Media

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the world’s largest bank, called debt a “hockey stick”. Dimon is the most credible person on the planet; here is what he said at a recent event when asked for his assessment of the debt crisis.

“ It’s a hockey stick (describing how the debt looks on a graph). The US has not reached the surge yet, but when it starts, there will be a rebellion. It’s a cliff and we see the cliff, it’s about 10 years out and we’re going 60 miles per hour toward it. . . . (Snowballing debt) is the most predictable crisis we’ve ever had.” Other economists on the panel agreed.

The WSJ headline on March 25, 2024 read “Surging Treasury Sales Unnerve Investors”. The article describes Treasury debt as “exploding” and went on to say that “any instability in the market for Treasuries could be catastrophic”.
The head of the CBO warned Congress about rising national debt and interest costs, stating the debt ratio soon will be the highest in history.
Bloomberg Economics ran one million simulations on the US debt outlook and concluded that 88% of them were unsustainable.
Mises Wire headlined “America’s Fiscal Collapse Accelerates”. “At this point, there is nothing standing between us and fiscal collapse. The only question is when”.

There is a Great Deal of Ruin in a Nation

Of course, the 64 trillion dollar question is: when? The short answer is there is no way to know. I would not be shocked if the Minsky Moment occurred tomorrow, as all the predicates already are in place. More likely, we still are a few years away.

Adam Smith famously quipped, “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”. He meant governments and citizens can survive destructive policies much longer than assumed. The economy, security and social cohesion of the United States of America are now on borrowed time. We will soon find out how much ruin America can tolerate.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024 Update

April 28, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024 Update

How things stand today and my fearless forecast

GEORGE NOGA
APR 28, 2024

This unscheduled posting responds to reader requests for an election update. Following is my take on where things stand now and for the general election.

Democratic Party Nomination

I stand by my belief that the nominee, more likely than not, will be Gavin Newsome. However, Newsome’s star has begun to fade since my last update in December. He now risks being relegated to the same status as other democrat fallen angels such as Beto O’Rourke and Stacey Abrams.

Democratic Party convention-1968 Chicago

Although Biden has secured enough votes for the nomination, there remain six long months to navigate before the general election. What’s obvious to anyone paying attention is also obvious to the Democratic Party he-coons, i.e. Biden is greatly diminished and not likely to finish a second term. This means Kamala Harris will become president and lead the party to electoral disaster in 2026 and 2028. Any of the following is likely to result in Biden not becoming the nominee.

He has more public episodes of falling, incontinence, wandering aimlessly, shaking hands with ghosts and mumbling unintelligibly. Biden navigated the SOTU address because: (1) there was no ad-libbing; (2) he practiced for a week; (3) he was kept up nights to acclimate him to staying up past his bedtime; and (4) he was pumped up with a potent pharmacological smorgasbord.
Party elders persuade him to step down. It would take someone like Barack Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi.
Disastrous poll numbers continue or get even worse. His bowing out could be cast as an unselfish act of statesmanship to make it palatable.
The Chicago Democratic convention gets really ugly and goes rogue.

Debates

There will be no presidential debates if Biden is the nominee. You can put that in the bank. Whether there will be a vice presidential debate is an open question. Democrats are not likely to risk exposing Kamala Harris if it is not necessary.

Lawfare

Democrats will do anything possible to secure at least one conviction before the election so they can label Trump a convicted felon. They don’t care that any conviction almost surely will be reversed on appeal – which would come only after November. The cases against Trump are so pathetically weak it is possible he can get hung juries and/or delay some of the trials until after the election.

However, the jury pools in New York, Washington D.C. and Fulton County are so overwhelmingly progressive, it is likely the Dems can obtain at least one conviction. How much this harms Trump’s electoral prospects is an open question. My guess is there will be some damage but much less than the Dems hope for.

General Election – November 5th

The election will be less about issues and more about ballots. If it is close, the election will be decided by early voting, mail-in voting and ballot harvesting – both legal and illegal. There will be widespread fraud in the dissemination of ballots to millions of people who did not request them. This is how most fraud occurs. Fraud in the counting is not the problem; it is the millions of ballots unaccounted for.

If the election is close, it will not be decided by issues – but by ballots.

The Dems will run on three things: (1) January 6th; (2) abortion; and (3) labelling Trump a convicted felon. The GOP will run on: (1) inflation and the economy; (2) crime; (3) illegal immigration; and (4) Biden’s (if he is the nominee) cognitive state and the specter of Kamala Harris as president. They will run ads with a montage of Biden’s pratfalls interspersed with Kamala Harris giggling uncontrollably.

Who Will Win in November

If the election were today, Trump would win handily against Biden. Trump has made startling inroads few thought possible among Latinos, African-American males, millennials, independents and even suburban women. Trump is ahead in nearly all the swing states and even in the so-called popular vote. Robert Kennedy and the Green Party will draw votes from Biden. The Libertarian Party will hurt Trump; but on balance third parties and independents will hurt Biden more.

But the election is not today; it is 6 months away and Biden may not be the nominee. The outcome of the Dems’ lawfare is unknown but is looking shakier by the week. There will be many unexpected events and likely fake news. Not all of Trump’s support among the demographics listed above is likely to continue.

Most voters don’t focus on the election until after Labor Day and there often are huge swings in October and early November. Carter led Reagan into October but Reagan carried 44 states. Dukakis led Bush by double digits in early October.

Following is my fearless forecast as of April 28, 2024.

If Trump runs against Biden and most of his support among independents, Latinos, Blacks, youths and women holds, he wins decisively.
If Trump’s support dwindles among the aforementioned groups, it will be close and come down to who does better at early voting, mail-ins and harvesting.
If Gavin Newsome or someone else is the nominee, it is too early to opine.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Why Dems Want Open Borders

April 14, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Why Dems Want Open Borders

The answers are likely to surprise you

GEORGE NOGA
APR 14, 2024

A reader emailed to ask if I could explain why Democrats are so strongly in favor of open borders despite the obvious harm it is causing to our nation and even to their own election prospects for 2024. There are five fundamental reasons which are revealed below in descending order, i.e. the strongest reason first.

person in black shirt and black pants standing on brown sand during daytime — US – Mexico Border

Reason #1: Ideology

Democrats guzzle the progressive kool-aid. They consider America an evil colonizing force that has wrought great harm, particularly to people of color. They don’t believe in borders and regard those opposing illegal immigration as racist and xenophobic.

Reason #2: Turning Texas Blue

In recent elections Dems have come within 2.5 percentage points of winning Texas. Many of the 12 million (and counting) migrants remain in Texas, some of whom eventually will vote via citizenship or their children, who are citizens if born in the USA. If Dems flip the 40 electoral votes (44 after the next census) of Texas, that would make it all but impossible for the GOP ever to win another election.

Reason #3: The 2030 Census

The American Redistricting Project (ARP) forecasts that in the 2030 census California will lose 5 seats in Congress, New York will lose 4 seats and Illinois will lose 2 seats. Winners are Texas and Florida, which gain 4 seats each, and Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Tennessee each pick up one seat. This spells disaster for Dems unless they somehow can change this electoral calculus.

In the 2016 election, the deep blue and deep red states both had 232 electoral votes. The 2020 census changed this balance marginally – 235 deep red versus 231 deep blue. However, based on 2030 ARP data, deep red states will have 247 electoral votes versus just 219 for deep blue states. The Dems solution: open borders. They want to surge migrants into deep blue states to minimize loss of electoral votes and seats in Congress. For purposes of redistricting, non-citizens are counted.

Reason #4: The Long Game

As noted supra, children of migrants born in America are voting citizens. Let’s stipulate, a arguendo, the total number of migrants under Biden (through 2024) is 12 million and their fertility rate is 2.5. This results in 15 million (15,000,000) new votes. These children of migrants would be eligible to vote within 5 presidential cycles. If this seems distant, recall that just 5 cycles ago Barack Obama was president.

Reason #5: Cheap Labor

Many of the Dems largest donors benefit from a steady supply of cheap labor.

Progressives are wreaking havoc on our country with their open borders. Violent crime is surging; schools struggle to cope with new students who don’t speak English; housing is unavailable; and the cost is bankrupting cities. Sadly, the great pain inflicted on America by the Dems, in an effort to change the calculus of future elections, is not only illegal and cynical, but will not achieve the hoped-for result.

The values of Hispanic migrants are sympatico with conservatives’ and diametrically opposed to progressives’. Latinos value family, religion, hard work, thrift and law and order. It would be poetic justice if the surge of illegal immigration backfired on the Democrats and resulted in a long term electoral majority for Republicans.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Transgender Marxism

March 31, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Transgender Marxism

Progressives’ next target: pedophilia

GEORGE NOGA
March 31, 2024

A transgender went shopping and xe bought apples for xerself; xe ate xyrs apples for xem lunch. A pangender, shopping in the same store, bought oranges for themselves. A gender fluid shopper, ve bought plums for perself; sie ate ver plums for vis lunch. The preceding are all approved uses of gender pronouns. There are now 107 recognized genders – each presumably with its own set of personal pronouns.

I am taking a spring break for the month of April. Regular posts will resume May 5th.

Before transgenderism became a cause celebre, it was generally understood that 99.94% of people were cisgender, meaning the trans population is a miniscule .06%. Thus, the true trans population of the USA is about 19,200 and could fit comfortably inside most NBA arenas. How has an issue affecting such an infinitesimal part of the population come to dominate America’s culture and politics?

Marxists Hijack Trans Movement

After the fall of the USSR, Marxists were homeless. Collectivism, in light of the ignominious collapse of the Soviet Union, was discredited and toxic. However, Marxists were not chastened and continued to guzzle the commie cool-aide.

First, they took over the environmental movement and later the climate change movement. Now, they have hijacked the trans movement. But their focus and goals remain unchanged, i.e. to destroy western civilization and impose collectivism.

Marxists believe gender is a social construct and a false binary that underpins a white male heterosexual power structure which must be deconstructed. They see the trans movement as a bridge to communism in our time – a new communist way of relating to one another. In her book, Transgender Marxism, trans activist Rosa Lee argues:

“Trans people can serve as the new vanguard of the proletariat, promising to abolish heteronormativity in the same way orthodox Marxism promised to abolish capitalism.”

Perspectives About the Trans Movement

Following are some thoughts about the transgender movement.

Transgenders, who are part of the .06%, deserve our support. They also are victims, as what should be a medical issue has become hyperpolitical.
Progressives, Marxists and their media lapdogs have hijacked the trans movement to achieve their unrelated goals – which are so noxious they must be masked.
The vast majority of youths (70%) who claim to be trans really are homosexual.
Those who make a fuss over pronouns enjoy calling attention to themselves and making others feel uncomfortable. They really don’t care about the pronouns.
Activist teachers and health care workers propagandize by using the euphemistic gender affirming care, just as abortion is described as choice.
Follow the money. Gender surgery has become highly profitable. What has become of the physicians’ oath to “first, do no harm”?
If people can change their gender identity, why not their disability status, age, race, ethnicity, income cohort or any other aspect of their identity?

Children and Transgenderism

One day, sooner rather than later, the surgical and chemical mutilation of children as young as 10 will come to be seen with horror. We as a society will grapple with understanding why and how we came to tolerate such atrocities. Children are easily confused and influenced – recall how children were manipulated during the day care abuse hoaxes. This has become a red state, blue state issue. At fashionable California dinner parties, at least one of the attendees is likely to have a child in transition.

Next Target: Pedophilia

Transgenderism moved rapidly from the fringes of society to the epicenter after it was hijacked by twenty-first century Marxists. The media jumped on the bandwagon and soon the money flooded in. Eventually, all the usual suspects came on board and, voila, the trans movement became a wedge political and cultural issue.

The Marxist playbook that has worked for the environmental, climate change and transgender movements can be made to work for other issues as well. Issues, currently on the fringe of society, that are likely to be catapulted onto center stage within the next five years are pedophilia followed by plural marriage.

However, next on progressives’ radar screens is pedophilia. They euphemistically relabel pedophiles as minor-attracted persons. They won’t attempt to remove the age of consent all at once. They already are advocating lowering it to 16 . That soon will be followed by a push to lower it to 14 and then to 12 before abolishing it entirely.

If you think this can’t happen, the age of consent in some US states already is 13 and 14 (with restrictions); many states are at age 16 with no restrictions. Germany and many South American countries are at age 14 with no restrictions. Africa has one country at age 12 without restrictions. Muslim nations have no predetermined minimum age of consent for sex or marriage; it is based on custom.

If you believe pedophilia could never become legal in the USA, think again. If one believes it is okay for children as young as ten to be chemically and surgically castrated and to have their genitals irreversibly mutilated, it dosen’t seem like a big stretch to argue that these same kids should have the right to choice about sex. If this seems far-fetched to you, so did transgenderism a scant five years ago.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Is Government Evil?

March 24, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Is Government Evil?

Government horrors in my lifetime

GEORGE NOGA
March 24, 2024

Previously, I referred to government as a malevolent force; now I call it evil. It is however a necessary evil because it’s better than the alternative, which is anarchy. Since government is an evil force, we should have as little of it as possible, only enough to protect us from foreign and domestic violence and to preserve our liberty.

a field full of white crosses in the grass

Some readers have questioned my use of the term evil. Following is my lifetime of experiences with government. You judge if they qualify as evil.

I was born while my father was fighting in WWII; he also fought in Korea. Both wars (as well as WWI) resulted from government ineptitude. American WWII casualties were 407,000 killed and 671,000 wounded. Worldwide 60 million died, all preventable. My father was away at war during half of my first 10 years.
For 12 years I was the victim of an execrable education in wretched government schools. Any learning that took place was purely incidental.
I have been subject to a mind-numbing array of taxes, including at one time an income tax with a 94% bracket. Government at all levels takes 40% in taxes.
Government mismanagement of the economy unleashed numerous economic cycles, bubbles, busts, panics and meltdowns. The Federal Reserve once jacked up interest rates to over 20% to fix the 15% inflation it caused.
It costs $20,000 to buy what cost $1,000 when I was born: inflation of 2,000%.
The government-promulgated disaster that was the Vietnam War discombobulated my life and required me to serve in the armed forces.
I owned a highly regulated business for 35 years and was subject to a Kafkaesque wasteland of arcane and conflicting government regulations that helped no one.
Out of control government spending, debt and deficits will result in the greatest economic and social disaster in US history. Incredibly, government has managed to bankrupt the most prosperous nation in the history of this planet.
I only narrowly escaped the Obamacare death panels, but am still at risk for rationing and denial of care under a future single payer system.

Government has bankrupted the most prosperous nation in the history of Earth.

Private Sector Advances

Let’s contrast the above government horrors with the progress made by the private sector over the same time horizon.

Medical and dental treatment has improved immeasurably. When I was young there was little doctors could do except palliative care. President Coolidge’s son got a blister playing tennis; it became infected and he died within a week. There was nothing doctors could do. Going to the dentist was to be feared.
The progress in pharmaceuticals has been breathtaking. Most diseases are curable and gene therapy is a reality.
Computers did not exist in 1943. Today’s smartphones contain thousands of times the computing power used on lunar missions – and at ridiculously low prices.
Consumer electronics have made amazing progress. When I was young, there were only 3 channels of TV on a 9-inch screen with fuzzy reception and broadcasting limited hours. Today many hundreds of channels are available in high definition with over 125,000 movies available on demand 24/7.
We have advanced from propeller planes to walking on the moon .
The quality of all goods – particularly cars – has improved. Food now is but a small part of most family budgets. The cost of most goods in real terms has plummeted.
Capitalism has eliminated poverty, hunger and homelessness except for those with untreated mental illness. See my 2/18/24 post on my website: www.mllg.us.

Government Versus Markets

During my lifetime, government has brought mostly grief and failure, whereas free market capitalism has produced miracles. Government is not based on markets; it is top-down, highly coercive and ignores consumer preferences. It is antithetical to human nature. Waste, fraud, abuse and corruption are endemic. Government failure is systemic, structural, ingrained and incapable of reform.

Free market capitalism succeeds because it properly aligns personal rewards, risks and incentives with the goals of the business; it is in sync with (not opposed to) human nature. There also are immediate and consequential personal costs of failure. Capitalism attracts those who are hard working and receptive to risk, whereas government attracts those who are risk averse and value security over opportunity.

Is Government Evil?

Dictionaries define evil as: (1) something that brings sorrow, distress or calamity; (2) suffering, misfortune and wrongdoing; (3) wicked or dishonorable; (4) capable of harm and (5) having undesirable or negative qualities.

Government comports squarely with the above definition. The drafters of our Constitution understood government was capable of great harm; that’s why they created a republic with separation of powers and numerous checks and balances. However, as I wrote at the beginning of this post, you may judge for yourself.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Taxation in Biden’s America

March 17, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Taxation in Biden’s America

Do the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share?

GEORGE NOGA
March 17, 2024

President Biden’s State of the Union (SOTU) screed demagogued corporations and the wealthy, alleging they do not pay their fair share of taxes. He repeated his ersatz claim that no one with income under $400,000 would pay a penny more in taxes. This post lays waste to these and other Biden assertions, whose only aim is to divide Americans by income and to engage in unrestricted class warfare based on disinformation.

person holding paper near pen and calculator — Paying Income Tax

Do the Wealthy Pay Their Fair Share?

The top 1% of earners paid 42.3% of all federal income taxes¹ which is the highest in 20 years. That same 1% reported 22.2% of income (AGI) which means that cohort paid roughly double its share of income in taxes. The wealthy’s share of taxes was even higher because AGI excludes income from 88 government programs for low-income Americans, refundable tax credits and debit cards loaded with food stamp benefits.

The top 5% of earners reported 38% of AGI, but paid 63% of all income tax.² The lowest 50% of earners reported 10.2% of AGI and paid 2.3% of all income tax. When adjusting for credits such as the EITC, the bottom 60% paid only about 1% of all federal income tax. The top 1% paid an average tax rate of 26%, while the bottom 50% paid an average rate of 3%. To put a finer point on it, the wealthy in the US pay a far higher share of taxes than in Sweden and in every other developed nation.

As progressive as are federal taxes, deep blue states are even worse. In California and New York, the top 1% of earners pays 40% of all taxes. As high earners decamp California for friendlier climes, it has caused a budget deficit of $70 billion.

Tax Increases for Under $400,000 Income

Several of Biden’s tax increases directly raised taxes on low-income Americans; the increase in cigarette taxes comes immediately to mind. However, tobacco taxes are penny ante. The killer tax increase on low-income and middle-income Americans is inflation. And yes, inflation is a tax – just like any other tax. Economists of all stripes consider inflation to be a tax. Biden’s inflation, caused by blowout spending, costs families earning under $400,000 a whopping $7,000 per year in inflation tax.

Biden’s inflation has raised mortgage rates to multi-decade highs and added around $700 per month to new mortgages and to variable rate mortgages. Home ownership for first time buyers is nigh impossible. The rate on credit card debt (now at an all time high) has gone up 6 percentage points, or 30%. All these Biden-created inflation costs lay waste the budgets of Americans earning below $400,000.

Do Corporations Pay Their Fair Share?

It bears repeating that corporations do not pay taxes – only people pay taxes. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we could magically impose taxes that no human had to pay? Studies have shown that 96% of all corporate income taxes are passed along to consumers as price increases. Thus, if Biden and his progressive cool-aid drinkers raise corporate taxes, the real burden will fall on low and middle income Americans.

In his SOTU speech, Biden resurrected his stale canard that some big corporations pay no income tax. The poster child for this is Amazon, which in some recent years paid no corporate income tax because in prior years it suffered humongous losses which, pursuant to law, Amazon was able to carry forward to offset income in subsequent years. Another case in point is FedEx, which owed no income tax due solely to lawful depreciation on its large fleet of new aircraft. However, both Amazon and FedEx paid billions each year in payroll, state and local taxes.

Warren Buffet and His secretary

Biden’s SOTU also repeated another red herring, i.e. some billionaires pay tax at a lower rate than their secretaries. This assertion made quite a stir in 2012 when Warren Buffet said he paid tax at a lower tax rate than his secretary, Debbie Bosanke. Indeed, it is possible that Buffet (or anyone) with income only from capital gains could pay a lower rate than someone with only ordinary income. However, that is only one of many parts of taxation and far from the whole story. Before anyone realizes capital gains, he/she must first pay income tax and then invest with after tax funds.

I computed the total taxes over the entire cycle on this tranche of income (including ordinary, dividends, corporate, capital gains and estate) and determined that Buffet would have paid overall taxes of 70% to 80% – far, far higher than Ms. Bosanke.

Raising the Minimum Wage

To complete Biden’s SOTU circle of disingenuity, he trotted out the minimum wage. Markets determine wages, not governments. However, far from helping those most in need, raising the minimum wage actually hurts them by putting the poor, young, minorities and low-skilled out of work. The minimum wage affects less than 1% of all workers and for only 6 months or less. Most earning minimum wage are not poor; they have household income over $60,000 and consist of spouses and teens living at home.

Taxation in Biden’s America

After a half century on the public payroll, Biden must be conversant with the facts reported in this post. If he isn’t, it is ignorance on an unimaginable scale. If he does know the facts, it can only mean he chooses to ignore them to incite class warfare. Either way, it is condemnable. To cap it off, Biden really does not want to soak the rich, i.e. his biggest donor base; he merely wants the appearance of doing so.

1 Based on official IRS data for 2020 – the most recent year for which data are available.

2 Tax Foundation data as reported in The Wall Street Journal.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Nothing Is Written

March 10, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Nothing Is Written

“God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America”

GEORGE NOGA
March 10, 2024

The above quote from Otto von Bismarck rings true. Throughout our history the USA has been lucky. Our good fortune began with the success of the American Revolution. There are at least thirteen events¹ that, if had they turned out differently, would have led to defeat and to George Washington likely being hanged.

The early history of Western civilization is replete with close encounters² that shaped our lives, often by pure chance and blind luck. Following are but a few of them.

Had Atilla not died young in 453, you would be reading this in Hungarian.
If the outmanned French would have lost the battle of Poitiers in 732 to the Arabs, we all would be speaking Arabic today.
In 1242 the Mongols were within a hair’s breadth of conquering Europe when King Ogadi (son of Genghis Khan) died suddenly prompting the Mongols to turn around. Europe was saved by blind luck so we are not speaking Mongolian.

There also have been numerous what ifs just in the past century. If not for pure chance and a roll of the dice, we could be much better off or worse off today.

If Archduke Ferdinand had survived his assassination on June 28, 1914, World War I would not have happened.³ Absent the utter slaughter and horror of that war, the West would not have lost faith in itself, its culture and its religion. There would have been no Lenin, Stalin or Hitler – and no holocaust.

World War II is pregnant with what ifs. What if Hitler had not inexplicably paused his armies near Dunkirk and instead wiped out the entire English army? What if he would not have invaded Russia? What if he would have committed his air force to destroy the RAF instead of bombing cities? What if Halifax instead of Churchill became prime minister? What if the Enigma code was not broken? What if all the American carriers were in Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941?

Events are Chaotic and Random

Nothing about our lives in twenty-first century America is preordained. There are many forces in play and the myriad possible interactions are so complex that even infinitesimal variations can alter events and unleash powerful and unanticipated forces. Moreover, history is not necessarily directed toward a more prosperous and peaceful world. There are countless possibilities, most of which never materialize.

We humans tend to vastly overweight recent events and to believe things had to turn out the way they did. Americans in particular suffer from this affliction because America has been blessed with good fortune during most of its existence – thus, Bismarck’s statement “God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America”.

Human nature is unchanged since we lived in trees; it is part animal spirits and part rational, with the rational, usually but not always, having a tenuous grip over the passionate. Nothing is preordained; nothing is written. It is not written that America will continue to be peaceful and prosperous. It is not written that good will triumph over evil. Fukuyama’s long arc of history may bend in the right direction, but there is ample room for terror and slaughter along the way.

Future History of America

As noted supra, history is chaotic, unpredictable and often hinges on pure chance. There are unknowns and unknowables; animal spirits sometimes trump logic. Following are some possible future scenarios and their possible outcomes.

A spending crisis is a certainty, but how will it end? Will America default on its debt or print money leading to hyperinflation? Will America be too broke to defend its interests and values as bad actors come to dominate the world?
What will happen with China? Will its empire break apart; will there be a democratic revolution; or will it become a global hegemon – occupying Taiwan and imposing its will throughout the Pacific and cowing the United States?
What happens after Iran gets atomic weapons? Will it destroy Israel and Saudi Arabia or will its people rise up and replace the present theocratic regime?
What will become of America? Will it become a post-constitutional state where progressives rig the electoral system to eliminate opposition? Or will America again become a land of liberty with equal justice under law?
How does Ukraine end? Will Putin win and go on to threaten Moldova and the Baltic states? Will NATO be dragged into war or succumb to nuclear blackmail?
What if China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua formed an alliance and attacked simultaneously around the world?
What will happen to civilization on this orb? Will we be able to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle or will we destroy everything and return to the stone age? Or will we come to our senses and usher in a golden age for humanity?
What unforeseen or unforeseeable threats or opportunities may arise?

Nothing is written.

Unlikely Victory by Thomas Fleming
What If edited by Robert Cowley
The World We Lost on June 28, 1914 by Gary North

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

State of the Union 2024

March 3, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

State of the Union 2024

This is my state of the union address

GEORGE NOGA
March 3, 2024

My fellow Americans:

The state of our union is precarious. Unless we take immediate and drastic actions, that heretofore would have been considered unthinkable, to slash spending and cut the deficit, we face an imminent crisis equal to, or likely worse than, the Great Depression. We also face a constellation of geopolitical threats from China, Russia and Iran. Moreover, we must meet these threats when America’s internal divisions seem irreconcilable. But we are out of time and our survival requires bold action.

Our most serious and certain crisis is our spending and debt which has reached a tipping point. We must immediately reduce our annual deficit by $1 trillion. To accomplish this I am appointing a select committee comprised of political leaders from both parties and other prominent Americans. They will have 100 days to propose immediate spending cuts of $750 billion – equal to 18% of all spending except for defense and interest on the debt. The committee also must propose new taxes of $250 billion. Congress then will be required to have a straight (up or down) vote without any amendments on the committee’s plan.

Nothing, other than defense and interest on the debt, is off the table including Social Security and Medicare. Also, I am freezing new hiring of government employees combined with an immediate 15% reduction in headcount – excluding the military.

Concerning geopolitical threats, we will follow John Quincy Adams’ admonition that “America is a friend of liberty everywhere, but custodian only of our own.” We will also observe George Washington’s advice that “The best way to keep the peace is to be prepared for war.” We will support our allies in Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, but they must carry the burden of fighting. If Americans are attacked or taken hostage, we will respond with immediate and overwhelming (not proportional) force. We will maintain our military at such a high level as to deter any possible adversary.

Since the dawn of human history, governments have been instituted among men primarily for protection from violence – both domestic and foreign. America has failed miserably in protecting its citizens from domestic crime. I will take every legal action to stop crime, especially crime involving violence or the threat of violence. Anyone committing violence will be removed from society for at least a period of years. Anyone guilty of a second crime of violence will be removed for a lengthy term.

I will enforce all our laws as required by the Constitution. This means our borders are closed and all illegal immigration will end. I will construct a wall on our southern border and deport those here illegally.

In addition, I will take the following actions.

The Federal Reserve will have but one mission, to maintain sound money.
I will eliminate all tariffs and trade barriers, unilaterally if necessary.
We will become net energy exporters, end the war on fossil fuels and withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords – while continuing research on alternative fuels.
I will support universal school choice, the civil rights issue of our time.
I will work to privatize Social Security such that everyone owns their account.
All regulations automatically will sunset every ten years and any rule promulgated by the deep state with an impact over $25 million must be ratified by Congress.

I close my address by returning to first principles. Governments are instituted among men to protect their rights including to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Indeed, this is the only legitimate role for government.

Experience has shown that the sanctioned use of force, i.e. government is necessary to secure our rights. Government therefore is a necessary, albeit dangerous, force that always must be circumscribed, controlled and used sparingly. Government is inherently coercive; it is not about reason, logic or persuasion. It is about brute force. If citizens run afoul of a government diktat, ultimately men with guns will come to take away their property, their liberty and even their lives.

I hereby renew my promise to strictly confine government to its constitutional box and to return America to a nation of free people, free trade and free markets.

Good night. May God bless you, your family and these United States of America.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com