We Should Celebrate Earth Day

George Noga

Uncork the champagne on Earth Day to celebrate our amazing successes.

We Should Celebrate Earth Day

By: George Noga – April 18, 2021

Thursday is Earth Day which we always observe. Visit our website (www.mllg.us) to read our Earth Day posts from prior years. Since the first Earth Day in 1970, ersatz environmentalists have used the occasion to spread anxiety and to scare the bejesus out of people, especially children. It will be no different this year. In contrast, we present a fact-based and principled analysis of the environment, including climate change.

Michael Shelllenberger, the foremost environmentalist of our age, believes “There is more reason for optimism than pessimism about the environment”, a view we echo. Problems remain (some worrisome), but that shouldn’t detract from the incredible progress humanity has achieved since 1970 and continues to achieve today. Following are some of the amazing environmental gains we should celebrate this Earth Day.

 Population: World population will peak circa 2060 and will be less than today within a century. Then it will continue its plunge to far lower levels and may never again increase as it is nearly impossible to increase fertility with an elderly population. Our biggest concern in the future will be population collapse, not overpopulation.

 Climate Change: Climate alarmists worry about CO2 emissions in 100 years. As noted supra, in 100 years there will be fewer people and in 150 years Earth will be in the throes of a population collapse. If climate change is manmade, then a much smaller population will emit far less carbon than today, thereby totally solving climate change and without the need for humanity to take drastic actions or even to spend money.

 Reforestation: The amount of farmland needed to sustain humanity already has peaked due to GMOs and increased productivity. One billion acres – nearly half the size of the US – will revert to nature by 2060. The global tree canopy has increased by one million square miles (Alaska and Montana combined) in the past 50 years. Global reforestation will remove from the atmosphere 30% of the CO2 from fossil fuels.

 Natural Resources: Since 1980, 45 of 50 commodities studied are less expensive (adjusted for inflation), which means they are more plentiful relative to demand for them. The average price for all 50 commodities fell 35%. Mankind has never run out, or is in any danger of running out, of any non-renewal resource. Remember peak oil?

 Overfishing: Aquaculture is supplying 50% of the fish consumed and is relieving the pressure on overfished wild stocks. Granting property rights to parts of the ocean incentivizes safeguarding fish stocks and avoiding the tragedy of the commons. Such privatizations, as in Iceland and New Zealand, have resulted in increasing fish stocks.

 Rewilding: Currently 15% of the Earth’s land area is protected, such as in national parks; also, 7% of marine areas are protected. As the population collapses in the future, giant swaths of our planet will be rewilded and return to a pristine state.

 Peak Gasoline: We reached peak gas in 2019 prior to the pandemic. Gas usage is declining due to more EVs and Covid-related changes like working from home.

 Other Metrics: Nearly every metric of environmental well-being is the best it has been in 50-100 years and is getting better; these include: ambient air quality, streams suitable for swimming and fishing, oil spills, wastewater treatment and timber growth. There is one environmental problem getting worse, i.e. ocean plastics pollution.

Martin Luther King did not give an “I have a nightmare” speech.

In the runup to Earth Day the media won’t report any of the astounding environmental successes described supra. All you will hear are environmental nightmares. You don’t make the world better by ignoring real progress, dwelling (often counterfactually) on how terrible things might become and scaring our children to death. As Shelllenberger notes, Martin Luther King did not give a “I have a nightmare” speech.

Earth Day 2021 provides an occasion to celebrate mankind’s many environmental successes, while not ignoring legitimate remaining problems. Readers should do two things. First, forward this post to your children and grandchildren who may be petrified by what they hear and see. Second, uncork a bottle of champagne and celebrate!

Next week we touch on several topics – beginning with your breakfast.

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Laboratories of Democracy – Part IV Bonfire of the Blue State Vanities

George Noga

Thirty lessons for America from the blue state laboratories of democracy

Laboratories of Democracy – Part IV

Bonfire of the Blue State Vanities

By: George Noga – April 11, 2021

Welcome to the final post in the series; the previous three parts are easily accessible on our website: www.mllg.us. The raison d’etre of laboratories of democracy is to learn from laws adopted in one or more states without risk to the rest of America. The successful experiments then may be emulated and the failed ones rejected.

Wide chasms exist between red and blue states. Blue states are hemorrhaging jobs, people, tax base and political power to red state America. We explain the causes of this tectonic shift by identifying the major reasons people flee blue states. We whittled the reasons down to the thirty horrors presented below, which are not listed in any order.

  1. Spending/Taxes: Blue states spend/tax more; NY spends double FL per person.
  2. Economic opportunity: Blue states suffer stagnation and depopulation.
  3. Jobs: Blue states are losing jobs at a fast pace – especially middle class jobs.
  4. Minimum wage: High minimums are harmful, devastating Seattle restaurants.
  5. Demographics: Depopulation results in malaise and loss of opportunity.
  6. Public safety: Sanctuary cities, abolition of cash bail, defunding police.
  7. Homelessness: Heavily concentrated and tolerated mainly in blue states.
  8. Rent control: This devastates housing stock along with bans on evictions.
  9. Economic freedom: States with least freedom all are blue; most freedom red.
  10. Shrinking middle class: Blue states are home only to the rich and poor.
  11. Political correctness: Runs amok in blue states – harms civility and culture.
  12. Housing: Zoning, NIMBY and unions create shortages and drive up costs.
  13. Right to work: Absence of RTW laws reduces jobs and freedom.
  14. Unfunded liabilities: Unions and corruption cause huge unfunded obligations.
  15. School quality: Disaggregated and COL adjusted, blue state schools lag.
  16. Gun control: Such laws infantilize people decreasing freedom and safety.
  17. Drug legalization/decriminalization: Numerous problems created as a result.
  18. School choice: Hostile to charter, private, magnet and voucher schools.
  19. One party politics: Lack of competition results in corruption and stagnation.
  20. Civility and culture: There is less tolerance and a toxic culture.
  21. Regulation and bureaucracy: These go hand-in-hand degrading daily life.
  22. School curricula: Hostile to parental values; teach fake 1619 project.
  23. Public health: California had Typhus outbreak and rodent infestations.
  24. Cost of living: Much higher than in red states but results in no added value.
  25. Law and order: Looting, arson, mayhem tolerated during the summer of love.
  26. Energy policies: Unreliability, outages, rolling blackouts and sky-high cost.
  27. Wokeness: This is a code word for socialism and casts a pall over everything.
  28. Covid management: Lockdowns, delayed reopenings and shuttered schools.
  29. Infrastructure: Roads, bridges, airports are neglected despite confiscatory taxes.
  30. Happiness/Quality of life: Gini coefficient shows less happiness in blue states.

We do not assert all of the 30 horrors are found only in blue states. We do assert that every one of the 30 is much more likely to occur and to be more extensive and more virulent in blue states. It is possible to quibble with this or that one of the horrors, but it is impossible to take the 30 in the aggregate and not get the picture. Although I tried, I could not conjure one thing that is better in blue state America – maybe you can.

America owes thanks to its founders for creating a federalist system that includes a political safety valve where each state can serve as a laboratory of democracy. The lesson from the laboratories of democracy couldn’t be any clearer: progressive policies fail and fail miserably. America is voting – and voting decisively – with its feet and the result is a landslide victory in favor of more liberty and less government.

Coming April 18th is MLLG’s always special Earth Day posting.

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Laboratories of Democracy – Part III My Travels in Blue State America

George Noga

Blue state ignominies had a pattern; they were not merely random malevolent acts.

Laboratories of Democracy – Part III

My Travels in Blue State America

By: George Noga – April 4, 2021

This is the penultimate posting in our series; if you missed (horrors) either of the two previous posts, please go to our website: www.mllg.us. Next week (April 11th) is the series finale, Bonfire of the Blue State Vanities. That is one you don’t want to miss!

My wife and I once took a vacation, driving from our home outside Orlando to Cape Cod and then back to Washington from whence we took the Auto Train home. We drove via Florida, Georgia, Carolinas, Virginia, Washington, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut and finally Massachusetts.

We have driven extensively throughout the USA, including in all 50 states; but had not driven in the deep-blue northeastern states in decades. Everything was copasetic as we navigated north through Virginia. Once we hit blue states, we began noticing petty (and some not so petty) ignominies inflicted on motorists by government. It didn’t take long before we sensed a pattern and understood these were not merely random acts of malevolence. We began to compile a list, some of which are included in this post.

The most ubiquitous outrage was the doubling of fines for any reason and often for no apparent reason. In red states, speeding fines (and just speeding fines) are doubled in designated work areas when workers are present, as the rationale is to protect workers. Not so in blue states where all fines are doubled whether or not workers are present and even for infractions like an expired tag. It was all about raising revenue, not safety. Altogether, fines were doubled in most of the miles we drove in blue states.

Another frequent abasement was rest stops or, more pointedly, the lack thereof. Blue state rest areas were few and far between and many lacked facilities. In Connecticut they were renovating rest rooms; however, they closed consecutive ones instead of spreading them out. It was necessary to exit interstates to find commercial rest stops, requiring 30 minutes – and the rest rooms were only for those who buy gas.

And then there were the roads and bridges. CNBC ranks seven blue states worst in America in infrastructure (including six we drove through) while red states hold down all the top spots. There is an inverse relationship between tax revenue and quality of infrastructure due to union pensions displacing money that should go to infrastructure and also due to stratospheric construction costs – again due to unions. We did not use airports on our trip, but travelers rank blue state airports worst in the USA.

Our list of blue state indignities was extensive; following are ten of our favorites.

  1. We were not allowed to pump our own gas in New Jersey and Delaware.
  2. In some places signs read “Up to $10,000 fine for littering”.
  3. There were street signs only for cross streets; good thing I had GPS.
  4. There is a police presence in all work areas, even for mowing grass.
  5. Lanes were blocked at rush hour – for no apparent reason.
  6. There was a 3-mile line behind a street sweeper – escorted by police.
  7. Exits are not numbered by mileage like in the rest of the USA.
  8. Some parts of interstate highways are toll roads.
  9. There were scores of uber-dangerous double merges.
  10. Strangely, some rest stops were limited to vehicles over 5,000 pounds.

Why this jeremiad about asinine blue state indignities? First, it sharply contrasts differences between red and blue states. One can viscerally sense the miasma upon crossing from a red into a blue state. Second, it shows how insensitive, even hostile, governments in blue states are to the comfort, safety and convenience of their citizens. Third, it shows government is a malevolent force in small, as well as in large, matters.

If states truly are laboratories of democracy, the blue states I travelled through are quintessential examples of failed experiments. Their ignominious behavior explains why Americans are voting with their feet to get the hell out of blue state America.

Next on April 11th is the series finale: Bonfire of the Blue State Vanities.

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Laboratories of Democracy – Part II Sixty Years of Liberal Governance

George Noga

After 60 years of total liberal control , all blue states can do is to cry “racism”.

Laboratories of Democracy – Part II

Sixty Years of Liberal Governance

By: George Noga – March 28, 2021

This is the second of MLLG’s four-part series: Laboratories of Democracy. In case you missed Part I – no worries; it is on our website: www.mllg.us. The idea underpinning laboratories of democracy is that, under our Constitution, states have enormous latitude to experiment with different laws and policies. States can, and often do, take different, and even opposite, positions on issues such as right-to-work, marijuana legalization and gun control to name but a few. Over a period of decades, it should be possible to compare results and to adopt the successful policies and to reject the failed ones.

If one political party, governing under one unified philosophy, could control all the levers of power in entire states for 50-60 consecutive years, surely that should provide ample time to demonstrate the success or failure of that governance. There are such places in America; this is the story of the ones that experimented with and tested progressive shibboleths and liberal dogma for at least the past half century.

Liberals and their media adjuncts are absolutely certain their ideas are correct and that opposing ideas are not only wrong but dangerous and even evil. Surely, if there were places in America where they could showcase their ideas for a long enough time, it would prove beyond any doubt that liberalism worked. Surely, their economies would thrive and hordes of people would move there. Surely, it would provide a great quality of life and social harmony. Surely, such a veritable Xanadu would demonstrate the utter bankruptcy and depravity of capitalism, free markets and conservatism.

What would such a progressive utopia be like? It would have a high minimum wage, no right-to-work law and universal unionization – with great pay, benefits, job security and early retirement with medical benefits. It would defund the police and abolish cash bail. It would be highly regulated by a massive bureaucracy. Its schools, controlled by teachers unions, would spend double the national average per pupil. It would tax (personal and business) and borrow whatever was necessary to pay for it all.

Such a utopia would be a sanctuary state with uber-strict gun control. The homeless would be welcomed even if it endangered public health and safety. Shoplifting, drugs and arson would be decriminalized. New pipelines would be banned and green energy mandated. Rent control would be universal and evictions banned. If a pandemic hit there would be lengthy lockdowns and closures – including all schools. To cap it off, government would be run predominantly by woke minority elected officials.

These progressive utopias exist and have names; they are called Illinois, Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey, Maryland, New York and Rhode Island. What are they like after 60 years under the progressive yoke? Are people streaming in from red state hellholes? These liberal utopias, like all utopias throughout history, are dystopian wastelands where life has become toxic and people are escaping in droves to red states.

It is impossible to hold a perfumed handkerchief to one’s nose to somehow make these progressive snake pits smell right. People are voting with their feet. Liberalism failed and failed abjectly. Even liberals are tacitly conceding their dogma is poisonous. They know government schools can’t educate inner city children, so they quit. Instead of uplifting poor kids, they are destroying successful ones by abolishing advanced and gifted programs. By gosh – if everybody can’t get on the lifeboat, no one can.

It is incandescently clear: politics is not the pathway to black success.

So, progressives and their media acolytes simply quit. After 60 years they no longer can escape what so plainly stares them in the face. But, instead of taking responsibility for their failure, they are resorting to their old chestnut, i.e. blaming it on racism. In the end, liberals always resort to screaming systemic racism; that’s all they have.

There is one other critical lesson in all this. For the past 60 years, as black elected officials increased from 1,000 to 25,000 (including a two-term president), it is incandescently clear politics is not the pathway to black success. There is no relationship between the success of black leaders and inner city black families; maybe success has more to do with stable families, education, and hard work.

 

April 4th is Part III – Travels in Blue State America.

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Laboratories of Democracy – Part I Americans Are Voting With Their Feet

George Noga

Blue states are hemorrhaging people, jobs, taxes, seats in Congress and electoral votes.

Laboratories of Democracy – Part I

Americans Are Voting With Their Feet

By: George Noga – March 21, 2021

We have blogged often about the differences between red state and blue state America. The exodus from blue states, already a torrent, became a flood due to the pandemic. Blue-to-red migration affects our demographics, representation in Congress, tax base and electoral votes. Its effects on America truly are profound and far reaching. Our four-part series, Laboratories of Democracy, presents a comprehensive analysis.

Part I – Americans Vote With Their Feet (March 21)

Part II – Sixty Years of Liberal Governance (March 28)

Part III – My Travels in Blue State America (April 4)

Part IV – Bonfire of the Blue State Vanities (April 11)

Laboratories of democracy is deeply rooted in our federalist system wherein states enjoy enormous latitude. They even take opposite positions – such as on legalization of marijuana. If one state tries a new approach and it works, it can be emulated by others; the converse also is true. Laboratories of democracy originated with Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis who wrote: “A single state may serve as a laboratory and try novel social and economic experiments without risk to the rest of the country.”

Americans always have voted with their feet – fleeing high tax jurisdictions for lower cost venues. The following is from a 1755 letter published by the Boston Gazette. “The taxes in Boston continue very high. Many inhabitants are gone into the country; the (tax) burden now falls on a smaller number; the rich complain of their rates and are moving into country towns where they are greatly eased. I love my native town but my taxes are so large that I am resolved to move my family into the country.”

Will the last person leaving blue state America please shut off the lights?

High taxes remain a principal impetus behind out migration from blue states. However, this avalanche of depopulation increasingly is about other factors such as quality of life, economic opportunity, civility, culture, jobs, spending, safety, freedom, housing, right-to-work, schools, gun control, corruption, regulation, public health, cost-of-living, energy policies and, most recently, the response to the Covid pandemic.

We begin with the most recent official government data, in some cases extrapolated to the present. Sixteen states (nearly all blue) lost population since 2010. Texas gained 5 million and Florida 3+ million. California began to shrink for the first time. The 2020 census radically alters the balance of power in Congress and the Electoral College by shifting up to ten seats (and electoral votes) from blue to red, a swing of up to 20 seats (votes). The losers (80% blue) are NY (2), CA, RI, PA, WV, OH, MI, IL, MN. The gainers (80% red) are TX (3), FL (2), NC, CO, MT, AZ, OR. Also, population loss reduces federal dollars for many programs that are funded based on population.

Blue states are losing more than people, money and votes; they are hemorrhaging jobs, and tax base and leaving a trail of sinking bond ratings, economic stagnation, fiscal deficits and underfunded pensions. Disproportionately, it is the affluent who are fleeing blue states and taking their tax base with them. In the past five years NY and CA lost and TX and FL gained $50 billion in AGI (adjusted gross income). The eight states with the biggest AGI loss all are blue, while the eight largest gainers all are red. People fleeing blue states earn an average of $20,000 more per year than those arriving. Over 25% of retired blue state teachers have their pension checks sent to red states.

It isn’t just about economics; it’s about freedom and happiness. The top five states in the index of economic freedom are red (SD, ND, TN, ID, OK) while – you guessed it – the five worst states are blue (NY, CA, NJ, HI, VT). People in red states are happier; the Gini coefficient for happiness closely tracks the blue/red divide. The divergent responses of blue/red states to Covid put the blue state exodus on steroids. The ten states with the best jobs data since the pandemic are all red, the ten worst all blue.

We close with a stark comparison. New York spends $180 billion per year, or twice the budget of Florida, although FL has 10% more people. New York City alone spends as much as Florida. Just as the real minimum wage always is zero, so it is with tax rates. Sky-high tax rates generate zero tax revenue from NY taxpayers who flee to FL.

Redistribution is part of progressive DNA and they are redistributing their taxes, jobs, people and political power to red states and we don’t even have to say thank you.

Our series continues March 28th with: Sixty years of liberal governance.

$15 Minimum Wage – Soaking the Rich

George Noga

Taxpayers are not like sheep, docilely waiting to be shorn.

$15 Minimum Wage – Soaking the Rich

By: George Noga – March 14, 2021

With Democrats back in power, we revisit two of their leitmotifs beginning with the minimum wage, which they champion despite opposition from economists of all political persuasions. Markets determine wages, not governments and $15 is vastly different in NY vs. WV. The biggest problems with the minimum wage are:

1. It disproportionately puts the poor, minorities, young and low skilled out of work. It is economic strychnine; whenever the minimum rises, businesses are incentivized to relocate and/or automate. When the price of anything goes up, we get less of it.

2. Fewer than 1% of workers are affected. Of those affected, most earn minimum wage for six months or less. It impacts virtually no heads of households or full time workers. The few workers helped are hugely outnumbered by those who lose their jobs.

3. Most minimum wage workers are not poor. The average household income for someone earning the minimum wage is nearly $60,000. Spouses and teens living at home benefit – like the kid who delivers your pizza to buy gas for his SUV.

4. The poor need jobs, not a higher minimum wage. Most people in poverty don’t work and raising the minimum wage makes it harder for them to get a job. Those receiving unemployment or welfare do not benefit. The real minimum wage always is zero.

5. The earned income tax credit (EITC) is cut. Any benefit from a higher minimum wage is substantially negated by a lower EITC and is a disincentive to working.

Labor unions support minimum wage mostly because it prices the poor and minorities out of the labor market, reducing competition for lower paying jobs. Support also comes from liberal virtue signalers inflating their self esteem. As with other feel-good bromides, it enables soft-headed liberals to flaunt their pristine intentions.

Why it is Impossible to Soak the Rich (except for one way)

Following are the main reasons it is impossible to soak the rich. As a former CPA tax professional, this is a subject about which I have considerable first hand knowledge. Please see our 3/3/19 post on our website (www.mllg.us) for more in-depth analysis.

1. Tax revenue is a constant 18% of GDP (20% in good times, 16% in bad times). This has been valid for the past 75 years and is explained by Hauser’s Law; see infra. Whether tax rates are 92% or 28%, the IRS collects the same 18% of GDP in taxes.

2. Elasticity of taxable income: Analyzing returns before and after tax increases reveals that high income taxpayers paid less at the higher rate than at the earlier lower rate. Moreover, the income of the truly rich is mostly capital gains – not ordinary income.

3. The rich are not the same people. High income taxpayers are mostly different people each year. If someone sells a family business, that taxpayer is “rich” for that one year only. It is impossible to soak the rich if they change from year to year.

4. There is no way to identify the rich. Government has data only for income, a poor surrogate for wealth. You can’t soak the rich if you don’t know who they are.

5. There aren’t enough rich. There are too few to make soaking them worthwhile. You can’t soak them by taxing businesses; they simply pass the cost on as price increases.

6. The rich will take countermeasures: Most of the wealthy got that way for good reasons; i.e. they are bright, resourceful, hard working and definitely not docile. They will adjust (and quickly) to any measures designed to soak them.

Hauser’s Law works because taxpayers are not sheep docilely waiting to be shorn. When rates are raised, they work, save and invest less; barter; retire early; hide, defer and underreport income; convert ordinary to capital gains and defer gains until there are offsetting losses. They employ tax shelters; shift income to lower bracket family members; seek tax free income; shift income to corporations; establish pension plans; exploit ambiguities and loopholes; lobby aggressively for tax breaks; move, even to outside the US; enter the occult economy; use top tax professionals and much more.

There is one (and perhaps only one) way to soak the rich, i.e. with lower tax rates. Hauser’s Law also works in reverse; when rates go down the rich are disincentivized to further lower their taxes. When rates drop, the rich pay a much higher share of taxes than before; it works every time. Progressives won’t do it because they don’t really want to soak the rich; they only want to appear to be soaking the rich.

Next on March 21st, we begin our series: Laboratories of Democracy.

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The Trump Presidency: A Retrospective

George Noga

Trump’s story is classic Greek tragedy; he attained high office and achieved great things.
But it ended in disaster via unexpected events and flaws always present in his character.

The Trump Presidency: A Retrospective

By: George Noga – March 7, 2021

Trump’s most significant accomplishment was empowering and giving voice to half of all Americans – about 165 million – who had been voiceless for decades. These were good men and women who progressives and the media never saw inside their bicoastal plastic bubbles. These were decent unbiased people, many of whom voted for Obama. These were patriotic Americans whose values were mocked and ridiculed. Trump understood these people and, perhaps alone among politicians, actually liked them.

Trump never could have been president without Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama enabled Trump’s election because of his blatant narcissism, solipsism, superiority complex, annoying smugness and contempt for those who “cling to their guns and religion”. Hillary Clinton enabled Trump by her off-putting abrasive manner and visceral contempt for the “irredeemable deplorables” in middle America.

Even before his election Trump was subjected to unprecedented vitriol. His consensual dalliances were the grist of daily news while Bill Clinton, whose misogynistic actions were far worse, got a pass. The Billy Bush tape was leaked, which never would have happened to a progressive. The Russia hoax and Mueller probe went on interminably as did the Ukraine impeachment, even though it was Hillary who colluded with Russia and Biden with Ukraine. There’s more – much more – but we move on.

Accomplishments of the Trump Presidency

Following are but some Trumpian accomplishments. He defeated ISIS and destroyed the caliphate, retaliated against Syrian aggression, killed General Soleimani and al Baghdadi, freed our hostages, halted North Korean nuclear and missile testing, deported 5,000 MS-13 gang members, forced allies to vastly increase NATO defense funding, moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and achieved peace in the Middle East for which he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize – maybe Obama should give him his.

He withdrew the US from the deeply flawed Iran deal and the Paris climate accord, reversed Obama’s ill advised Cuba policy, sold Ukraine lethal weapons (not blankets like Obama) changing the correlation of forces, worked with Mexico to reduce illegal immigration, increased US defense spending after Obama savaged it, challenged China by tariffs and restrictions on Huawei and slowed the Russian Nord Stream Pipeline.

Domestically, Trump presided over unparalleled economic success and stock market returns, historic tax reduction and simplification along with massive deregulation. He approved pipelines and drilling in ANWAR leading to American energy independence, reinstated net neutrality and transformed the Veterans Administration. Unemployment was the lowest in recorded history for blacks, Hispanics, Asians and women.

Trump created opportunity zones in predominantly African-American areas, improved NAFTA and always put America first. He achieved criminal justice reform, appointed 3 Supreme Court justices, 54 appellate court justices and scores of federal judges. He ended the Obamacare individual mandate and vastly expanded school choice.

Covid – The 2020 Election – The Aftermath

Trump was a shoo-in for reelection, likely in a landslide, until the pandemic hit. He then made several inspired decisions. He halted travel from China, later expanded to Europe, long before that was an obvious decision. He got the private sector involved early on. Operation Warp Speed, the most successful government program in ages, produced vaccines in record time. His decisions to end lockdowns, open the economy and reopen schools were correct. But, he was excoriated for his optics while Andrew Cuomo was lionized despite likely criminal culpability for nursing home deaths.

Trump’s opponents, using Covid as a smokescreen, then enabled massive election fraud in states where they controlled the legislature and/or judiciary. There undoubtedly were huge numbers of fraudulent votes cast; however, the fraud was in the votes and not in the manner they were counted. Hence, the fraud could not be detected by recounts.

Our protagonist (Trump) in this Greek tragedy accomplished great things including his handling of the pandemic. Instead of receiving kudos however, he lost an election tinctured with fraud. In the final act of Greek tragedies it is customary for the protagonist’s character defects, that were well known from the beginning, to manifest themselves bringing about a tragic ending. And so it was with Donald Trump.

Next up: The $15 minimum wage and how to soak the rich

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Real Doctors Versus Witch Doctors

George Noga

Progressivism drowns everyone in an endless sea of myths, banalities and outright lies.

Real Doctors Versus Witch Doctors

By: George Noga – February 28, 2021

The most disturbing trend in America today is the rapidly escalating number and gravity of disconnects between empirical reality and political correctness – between objective fact and logic on the one hand and vapid progressivism on the other.

I feel like a real doctor amidst a coven of witch doctors. I approach issues in a fact-based, logical manner; they screech truth-defying progressive mantras in unison like imps and banshees, believing the more often and louder they regurgitate their pallid screeds makes them truthful. I advocate principled solutions to public policy issues; they shriek socialistic incantations and prescribe antiscience remedies like applying leeches, bleeding and administering arsenic to bring the humours into balance.

As we begin the third decade of the twenty-first century, a cornucopia of marvels, thanks to free market capitalism, confronts us. Space flight is commonplace, medicine routinely performs miracles and technology brings us mind-boggling gadgets. Every measure of human well-being is the best it has been and is getting better all the time. Similarly, environmental metrics are the best in about 100 years and getting better.

Breathtaking social progress has been made in my lifetime. The status of women, minorities, LGTBQs and even animals has been elevated and virtually all vestiges of discrimination eliminated. The few racists that still exist are regarded by the rest of us as troglodytes; all of them could comfortably fit inside a high school gymnasium. Extreme poverty is nearly eliminated worldwide; in the US material poverty is reduced to 2%-3% of the population and exists mainly among those with cognitive disabilities, untreated mental illness and substance abuse. Food is so cheap the age old paradigm of the affluent being corpulent while the poor are gaunt has been reversed.

Progressivism is twenty-first century witchcraft

Amidst this horn of plenty there is one dismal creed that is seeking to reverse all the aforementioned miracles. That is progressivism and the misanthropic stepchildren it has spawned and midwifed. It goes by many names: ANTIFA, political correctness, BLM, environmentalism and democratic socialism. It brands its opponents heretics and seeks to control their speech just as Orwell’s Ministry of Truth. It drowns everyone in an endless sea of myths, irrelevances, banalities, inanities and outright lies. Progressivism is a dark force that panders to the lesser angels of our nature.

Progressives have long sought to implement their agenda through government. They already control public schools, universities, entertainment, labor unions and the media. They are taking over corporations, social media, technology companies, sports and even science. These dark forces are metastasizing worse than kudzu and with the same effect. They now may be able to achieve their goals without government.

Witchcraft is defined as “the exercise or invocation of alleged magical powers to control people or events.” BINGO! Progressivism is simply twenty-first century witchcraft – not unlike that of the Middle Ages. Witchcraft may work for a time but eventually people quit believing – when progressives’ “magic” time after time proves to be ineffective and destructive. Until such time arrives, MLLG will continue to present fact-based, principled analysis and prescriptions that work – like a real doctor.

Next on March 7th is our retrospective on the Trump presidency.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

MLLG State of the Union Address

George Noga

Biden’s SOTU address is this Tuesday. Following is MLLG’s SOTU speech.

MLLG State of the Union Address

By: George Noga – February 21, 2021

My fellow Americans:

I begin with first principles. Governments are instituted among men to protect their rights, which include life, liberty and pursuit of happiness. This is its only legitimate purpose. Experience shows legally sanctioned force, i.e. government is necessary to secure our rights and to protect us from foreign and domestic violence. Government is a dangerous, albeit necessary, force but is preferable to the alternative, i.e. anarchy.

All human history demonstrates that free people, free trade and free markets result in the greatest prosperity for everyone. Civil society and markets are 100% voluntary and non-coercive. No corporation, no matter how powerful, can compel you to buy its product. A consumer armed with a free choice is the most powerful force on earth.

In contrast, government is inherently coercive; it is not about reason, persuasion or logic. It is about brute force. If you run afoul of a government diktat, ultimately men with guns will come and take away your property, liberty or even your life. Because government is such a powerful and malevolent force, it must be limited, controlled, confined to its constitutional box and used only when absolutely necessary.

Ours is a government of laws and not men. Who holds executive, legislative, or judicial offices should be of little import to citizens, provided they remain inside the constitutional box. We must gradually shrink a severely bloated government back to its core responsibilities; this means we scale the government back to 15% of GDP, a level which empirically has been shown to maximize the well-being of all Americans.

The few legitimate functions of government should be vigorously carried out. Of these, none is more important than protection from foreign threats to our liberty; hence, we must make our military so strong no adversary would even contemplate challenging us. This means that we will spend whatever is required to defend our liberty.

We must begin to restore our constitutional republic back to first principles. Following are some of the other main goals and policies we will pursue in the time ahead.

– Free Trade: Prosperity is created by trade among people. The USA unilaterally will eliminate all tariffs and trade barriers – even if no other countries reciprocate.

– Sound Money: The Federal Reserve will have only one mission: sound money. It will be audited regularly and will take a hard look at returning to a gold standard.

– Taxation: As we scale government back to 15%, taxes can be reduced. All present taxes (income, payroll, etc.) will be repealed and replaced by a consumption tax.

– War on Drugs: The war is over; drugs won. Drugs will be legal, taxed, regulated and discouraged. Taxes from drugs will be spent on rehabilitation, not incarceration.

– Education: We will implement universal school choice and thereby solve the greatest civil rights issue of our time. Great God almighty – free at last!

– Regulation: All regulations automatically sunset after 10 years. Any regulations promulgated by bureaucrats and having an economic impact of more than $25 million must be approved by a vote of Congress before they become effective.

– Climate Change: Open scientific debate is encouraged. All climate spending will be subject to strict cost/benefit analysis. More funds will be allocated to mitigation.

– Entitlements: Social Security will be voluntarily privatized. All entitlements will be placed on the budget. Medicare will be converted to a premium support system.

– War on Poverty: This war also is over; this time we won. Americans living in poverty (by their own account) are down to 2-3% and consist nearly entirely of those with very low mental acuity, untreated mental illness and drug addiction. We will not abandon these people but will structure solutions better tailored to their problems.

There is more – much more. But the policy initiatives outlined above should provide a good idea of the direction we are leading America. Thank you very much. Good night and may God bless you, your family and these United States of America.

Next up on February 28th: Real doctors versus witch doctors.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

The Global Population Collapse

George Noga

If climate change is manmade, then the population bust resolves it and at no cost.

The Global Population Collapse

By: George Noga – February 14, 2021

Very few, if anyone, reading this will be alive when the population collapse hits in full force early in the next century. Although that is a long way off, there are significant impacts in the shorter term. The biggest is that the population bust presents a solution to climate change; see our related 1/31/21 posting on our website at: www.mllg.us.

Population 100 years from now will be less than today and collapsing rapidly. Humans have not experienced a population bust since the Black Death 700 years ago. I spent hours researching what happened after the plague to see what lessons I could glean for today. Other than the fact that labor (due to scarcity) became far more valuable, and hastened the end of serfdom, I found nothing that resonates today.

Back to climate change. If indeed there are fewer of us in the future, that means CO2 emissions also are less, assuming they remain constant per capita. But what happens if everyone is much better off and has the same CO2 footprint as people in advanced countries today? If everyone is well off, they also will reduce their energy footprint just as wealthy nations are doing today. Moreover, global population will plunge far below that of today. The lesson is clear: we should not waste trillions on ineffective feel-good measures when a solution to climate change is staring us in the face. If climate change is manmade, as its proponents assert, then a smaller population solves the problem.

Let’s look at some numbers. World population today is 7.8 billion. Per a University of Washington study published in the Lancet, population is projected to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion and decrease to 8.8 billion by 2100. However, if current trends accelerate, as is happening, they forecast population as low as 6.3 billion by 2100. At low fertility rates, population halves every generation. Within a century or so, population could plunge from say 10 billion to 5 billion to 2.5 billion to 1.25 billion – a drop of 87.5%.

Even today, most wealthy countries have a fertility rate between 1.0 and 1.5 – far below the 2.1 required for a stable population. The USA is at 1.7 but population is stable due to immigration. By 2100 every country on Earth will be under 2.1. China’s population (fertility rate 1.0) is expected to drop 50%, by .75 billion people. In many countries population will fall over 50%, including Japan, South Korea, Italy, Portugal and Spain. It already has begun, as deaths today exceed births in Japan and South Korea.

Once fertility drops below 2.1, population recovery becomes impossible.

The population collapse is worse – far worse – than it appears. As population plunges, it also ages rapidly. Once population collapses, reversing it becomes nearly impossible; it is so difficult some demographers believe Earth’s population never again will increase. Increasing fertility with an elderly population is daunting for obvious reasons. No country in history has recovered its population once its fertility rate fell below 2.1.

Progressives still are flogging the politically correct narrative that overpopulation is the problem. They were wrong in Malthus’ time and they are wrong today. Prince Harry and Megan, who vowed not to have children, are comically wrong. Paul Erlich’s population bomb not only has failed to explode, it actually is imploding.

The implosion of the population bomb comes with serendipitous benefits such as described supra about climate change. Also, much of the planet’s surface will be rewilded and the environment will return to a pristine state. That’s the good news.

On the other side of the ledger are too few workers to provide health care for a huge cohort of elderly, only two workers to support each retiree and failure of many pension plans. When the elderly start cashing out their IRAs, who will be the ones buying? Who will buy all the cars, houses, refrigerators, or anything for that matter, in a depopulating world? From where will governments derive their funding?

At least population collapse will solve climate change. But don’t expect to see progressives jumping for joy. It is not about the climate; it never was.

Next up on February 21st: MLLG State of the Union Address

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us