Blue State Exodus Now a Stampede
California Dreaming has transmogrified into the California nightmare
George Noga
Nov 17, 2024
Latest IRS data confirm the exodus of wealth and income from blue states is now a rout. Millions of Americans voted with their feet and wallets. The biggest losers in the past year of adjusted gross income are California $24B (billion), New York $14B, Illinois $10B, New Jersey $5B and Massachusetts $4B. The winners are Florida $36B, Texas $10B, South Carolina $5B, Tennessee $5B and North Carolina $5B.
This post compares California and New York to Florida in key metrics and also addresses quality of life issues between red and blue state America.
California Versus Florida
The California dream is now the California nightmare. Compared to Florida electricity costs 200% to 300% more, while gas is $2 a gallon more. The median-priced home is double that of Florida. California taxes middle-income taxpayers at a higher rate than red states tax millionaires. Of course, Florida has no state income tax. Zoning restrictions, wacko environmentalism, climate madness and public sector unions run amok in the Golden State – not so in the free state of Florida.
In recent years FL gained over 1 million jobs while CA lost 100,000. Despite this, the CA unemployment rate is double that of FL. Small business taxes in CA have a top rate of 13.3% versus zero in FL. State and local taxes in CA are $10,000 per capita versus $5,400 in FL and per person spending in CA is $15,000 versus $8,800 in FL.
Every Californian owes $20,000 in unfunded pensions versus $5,000 in FL. Despite sky-high taxes, CA has a budget deficit of $50B, while FL has a surplus of $20B. CA spends 45% more per pupil on K-12 schools but, its test scores are much lower. CA has homelessness, open drug use, college riots, decriminalization of shoplifting, progressive prosecutors, and sanctuary status. FL has none of these.
New York Versus Florida
Refugees from progressive NY also are fleeing en masse to FL and it is easy to see why. A resident of Miami pays no (as in zip, nana, zero) state and local income tax while denizens of the big apple pay 14.8%. New Yorkers pay 8.875% sales tax versus 6.0% in Miami. Florida’s constitution caps residential property taxes, which are less than 1% compared to more than double in the Empire State.
NY spends twice as much as FL even though FL has 2.5 million more people. Florida’s economy is growing at twice the rate of NY and its unemployment rate is half that of NY. Estate taxes in NY are 16% while FL has no estate tax whatsoever. Incidentally, a moving van costs 500% more in New York.
Quality of life in NY and CA versus FL
Paying double (or more) in taxes in CA and NY (versus Florida) might be palatable if the money was spent to create la dolce vita for their citizens. Instead, they have used the money to create hell holes of toxic governance, sky-high taxes, identity politics, Kafkaesque regulation, stratospheric living costs, mandatory unionization, crumbling infrastructure, massive public debt, unfunded liabilities and tanking credit ratings.
CA and NY have failed union-run government schools that are petri dishes for dysfunction and social pathologies. Some independent think tanks rate FL schools best in America – and at less than half the cost of CA and NY. Recently FL enacted a universal school choice law empowering parents to choose the schools best for their children. In obeisance to uber-powerful teachers unions, CA and NY shuttered their schools for years causing irreparable harm. Florida quickly reopened schools. Unlike FL, NY and CA teach the 1619 Project, CRT and encourage children to question their gender – and even to begin transitioning without parental notification.
CA and NY are woke sanctuary states that tolerate homeless encampments and open purchase and use of drugs that have turned cities into open sewers. They decriminalize arson, shoplifting and looting while defunding police and eliminating cash bail. They pit their citizens against each other based on race, age, income and gender. Housing is scarce, dilapidated and expensive with rent control and eviction bans in place. Climate change madness runs amok doubling – or even tripling – the cost of energy. None of the above horrors are present in the free state of Florida.
Blue State Stampede Creates Vicious Circle
California, New York and other deep blue states are hemorrhaging billions and billions of dollars of tax base. This creates a vicious circle; the exodus of their most productive citizens leaves behind an even more progressive electorate that further raises taxes causing even more productive taxpayers to flee. Rinse and repeat.
A corollary of the blue state vicious circle is a red state virtuous circle. The massive influx of productive citizens, along with their tax base, results in a more libertarian electorate that permits red states to lower their taxes or provide more and better services causing an even bigger stampede from blue states. Rinse and repeat.
It is hard to see how the stampede ends. At some point a blue state collapse seems inevitable – following the storyline of Atlas Shrugged. For now, people are voting with their feet and wallets to escape blue state America, where safety, culture, civility and liberty go to die. Will the last person to leave CA and NY kindly shut off the lights?
© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com