Election 2024 Fearless Forecast

Trump wins handily and the GOP takes control of the senate

George Noga
Nov 3, 2024

I based my fearless forecast of a decisive Trump victory on the data listed below. These were the facts as of my final edit on November 2nd.

• The average of national polls has the race about even and well within the 3% margin of error. As explained in my October 6th update ¹ (on my website and in Substack archives), Harris must have a lead of at least 4 points to win in the Electoral College. Since the margin of error is 3 points, Harris falls short of her magic number even if the entire margin of error moves in her direction.
• Polls show 79% of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
• Harris’ job approval rating is only 45% while Biden’s is 43%.
• Polls in battleground states are tight, with most having Trump a slight favorite; they all are within the margin of error. However, due to Trump’s record of outperforming polls, Harris must be ahead by 2-3 points to win.
• Harris has a history of starting strong and fading rapidly.² In her race for CA Attorney General, the vote was much tighter than expected. In the 2019 Dem primary she started off polling 15% but ended up at 1%. The momentum favors Trump as voters learn more about Harris and don’t like what they see.
• Legal betting markets favor Trump by over 60%, with the average around 62%.
• When asked if they were better off than 4 years ago, 55% say no.
• Trends in voting blocks favor Trump. Blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Asians, Catholics, youth and union members all poll stronger for Trump than in prior elections.
• Polling on the two major issues, the economy and immigration, strongly favors Trump. Harris leads only on abortion.
• In the generic ballot, surveys show the GOP even or slightly ahead. This is better than in prior elections when the generic ballot heavily favored Dems.
• Voter registrations (particularly new ones) favor the GOP.
• Metrics of enthusiasm, crowd size and yard signs all favor Trump.
• Trump is well ahead in the polls versus where he was in 2016 and 2020.
• Early voting appears to favor Trump. The GOP has reduced the Dem’s advantage in early voting. This is worth one percentage point for Trump as studies have shown that 10% of voters who plan to vote on election day fail to do so.
• Trump’s “favorability” number hit 50% this past week – the highest ever.

Based on the above facts, calling the election for Trump appears to be a no-brainer. However, there is a narrow pathway for Harris to win. There also are many pathways Trump and the GOP could win in a statement election. The odds are as follows.

Harris Wins – 10 % Probability

An unlikely confluence of events could result in a Harris victory. Remember that no one expected Trump to win in 2016 and the much anticipated red wave in 2022 failed to materialize. Here’s what it would take for a Harris victory: (1) the 3% margin of error in the polls swings heavily toward Harris; (2) late momentum breaks her way³; (3) the Dems’ ground game and vote harvesting delivers big time; and (4) Harris squeaks by in enough of the swing states to win.

Trump Wins Comfortably – 50% Probability

This is the most likely outcome, i.e. Trump wins based on all the metrics listed supra. Trump wins all the states he carried in 2020, plus enough swing states to put him comfortably over 270 electoral votes. It will not be a cliffhanger.

Trump Wins Big With Over 300 Electoral Votes – 30% Probability

In this scenario, Trump carries all or nearly all the swing states plus picks off one or more blue states such as NM and CO.

Trump Wins In Landslide – 10% Probability

For this to happen Trump would need to carry all the swing states plus several of the following: NH, NM, CO, VA and MN. In this scenario, Trump also would win the national popular vote.

Republicans Take Back Senate

At a minimum, the GOP will hold onto all of its current senate seats plus pick up seats in WV and MT for a 51-49 majority. If Republicans win big, they will pick up at least two more seats for a 53 to 47 edge. If Trump wins in a landslide, the GOP will add even more seats in some of the following states OH, NV, PA, MI, WI, MD and AZ for a 55 to 45 senate majority.

House of Representatives – Too Close To Call

Republican control of the House likely depends on how well they defend the seats they won in 2022 in CA and NY. However, if Trump wins big, the GOP will pick off several more seats in light blue districts.