MLLG

The Depopulation Bomb

George Noga World Population

The Depopulation Bomb

The US may have more people than China by 2100

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 12, 2024

Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book, The Population Bomb, incited a global panic about overpopulation, alleging billions would die of starvation. Ehrlich had it bass ackward. Mankind is facing a population collapse of biblical proportion. Following are some of the highlights. For more information, please see my post of February 14, 2021 entitled “The Global Population Collapse”; it is available on my website: www.mllg.us.

Ghost towns proliferate

  • US population may surpass China’s by 2100 and certainly will do so by 2124.¹
  • World population, now 8 billion, will peak in 40 years at 9.7 billion and then decrease to 7.5 billion by 2100 before plunging to around 5 billion by 2124.² Global population could plummet to 2 billion by 2300 on its way to oblivion.³
  • Population collapse is more pernicious than population gain. As population plunges, it also ages rapidly and reversing it becomes nearly impossible.
  • To the extent manmade global warming exists, it will be 100% solved within 100 years by population collapse and all without spending any money.

     

US May Surpass China in Population by 2100

Today’s population of China is 1.4 billion and the US is 336 million; China has one billion more people. Nonetheless, it is not implausible that the US will be more populous in 74 years, or by 2100. It is near certain the US will surpass China within 100 years, or by 2124. This is astounding, but such is the power of demographics.

The best estimates for China’s population in 2100 are between 488 million (UN low variant) and 525 million (Shanghai Academy and Victoria University in Australia). The best estimates for the US in 2100 are the UN mid to high variants which is between 400 million and 543 million. Within 100 years, or by 2124, it is near certain the US will be more populous, approaching 500 million to China’s 300 to 400 million.

China’s fertility rate is 1.0, meaning its population will be halved every generation. In contrast, the US fertility rate is 1.7, but tens of millions with high fertility rates are being added via immigration – including from China.

World Population Peaks in 40 Years and Then Plunges

Global population, currently 8.0 billion, will peak circa 2065 at 9.7 billion and then begin an inexorable and precipitous decline to around 5 billion by 2124, or within 100 years. Per the UN study, global population could be as low as 2.3 billion by 2300. Demographics is destiny and human behavior, once established, is slow to change.

China alone will have one billion fewer people. Even though China abandoned the one-child policy, it has not affected fertility, which remains stubbornly anemic. Having children is primarily driven by economics and as populations become more affluent, the economic calculus is for fewer children.

Population Collapse is Nearly Impossible to Reverse

As population collapses, it also ages precipitously. Women of childbearing age become a much smaller cohort of the population. Trying to reverse a population decline with an old population is nigh impossible. Many demographers believe Earth’s population never again will approach current levels.

“Depopulation will completely solve climate change to the extent it is anthropogenic and it will do so without spending a nickel. We must immediately stop squandering trillions of dollars when a total solution to climate change is staring us squarely in the face.”

Consider life with virtually no aunts, uncles, siblings and cousins. There will be too few health care workers to care for a huge cohort of elderly. There will be only two workers to support each retiree. Many pension plans will fail. When retirees cash out their IRAs, who will buy? From where will governments derive their funding?

Silver Linings from Population Collapse

Population implosion has serendipitous benefits. First and foremost, it will completely solve climate change to the extent it is anthropogenic. Fewer people means less CO2. Even if everyone is much better off economically and uses more energy, depopulation will be so drastic that greenhouse gas emissions will be less than today. We need immediately to stop squandering trillions on ineffective feel-good measures when a solution to climate change is staring us squarely in the face.

In addition to solving climate change, depopulation will result in much of the planet being rewilded and the environment reverting to a pristine condition.

Although depopulation will not begin to occur for decades, the die is cast. There are actions humanity should take today – most notably to stop wasting money on climate change. Depopulation cannot be stopped. Demographics is destiny!

  1. Projection by Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, which has a history of being accurate.
  2. United Nations Study entitled “World Population to 2300”.
  3. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis based on a constant fertility rate of 1.84, the fertility rate projected for 2100. Note: Most wealthy countries today have fertility rates under 1.5.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com