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Category: Climate Change
Climate of Confusion – Part III Remainder of the Case for Manmade Warming
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Climate of Confusion – Part II Case for Manmade Warming – 97% Scientific Consensus
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Climate of Confusion – Part I
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Climate Change Rejected Worldwide
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| After years of exploding taxes, energy costs and regulations, voters have had enough. |
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Climate Change Rejected Worldwide
By: George Noga – January 27, 2019
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All over the planet people are soundly rejecting climate change alarmism. Media coverage of recent reports by the UNIPCC, the US National Climate Assessment and of the conference in Katowice, Poland is inaccurate crisis-babble. Too lazy and doltish to understand climate science, the media have turned climate change into a good versus evil morality play. We will get to all that; but first, a statement of MLLG’s position. MLLG Belief About Climate Change Climate change is a meaningless tautology because climate always is changing; it is used deceitfully to transform every weather event into a cause celebre. Secular (solar) global warming is real; our planet has been warming for 170 years, although there has been a pause during the past 20 years. This is a normal part of planetary warming/cooling cycles throughout history. The contribution, if any, by mankind is inconsequential and there is powerful evidence against anthropological causation. A modest amount of warming, such as we now are experiencing, is a net benefit to humanity. It is wrong to spend humongous amounts of money today for uncertain and infinitesimal reductions in temperature in the distant future. The best strategy is to maximize the global economy so that we will be in the strongest possible position to ameliorate any adverse effects, should warming become a problem in the future. Voters Reject Climate Change Taxes and Costs Voters everywhere are rejecting spending and taxes to reduce CO2. The most dramatic was in France, where the yellow vest movement stopped increases in gas and heating fuel. In liberal Quebec, the Labor Party was routed in provincial elections due to a proposed carbon tax. In Ontario, with power bills up 75%, voters elected candidates opposed to all alternative energy subsidies. In Saskatchewan and Alberta, Trudeau’s carbon plan is opposed across the entire political spectrum. Voters in Germany rejected Merkel’s energy policies which savaged the middle class. Carbon pricing efforts were defeated in Australia. In the United States, voters rank climate change dead last out of 20 issues of concern. Voters in liberal Washingtonstate and Arizona rejected ballot initiatives to tax carbon. After years of exploding taxes, costs and regulations, voters have had enough. They place their own well-being ahead of some distant, hazy and unproven threat foisted on them by their elites. UNIPCC – US Climate Assessment – Poland Conference The UNIPCC issued a report in October and the US National Climate Assessment followed in November. Both were nothing burgers, but the media responded with scary headlines. New York Times headlines screeched: Emissions Surge, Hastening Perils Faced By Planet and Climate Accord Remains Alive as Crisis Builds. Al Gore shrieked that “civilization would descend into another dark age“. Other headlines used terms such as catastrophe, human extinction, losing Earth and game over. Really? The reality bears no resemblance to the headlines. One worst case scenario showed annual GDP growth lower by five one-hundredths of one percent. The New York Timeshysterically reported the new data reduce GDP 10% by 2090, i.e. a growth rate of 1.86% instead of 2.00%. In a worst-worst case scenario, GDP would be 4% more in 2090 without human effects. In reality, both reports contained nothing new. The conference in Poland to implement the Paris Agreement was marred by the knowledge that whatever they decided was irrelevant. Macron’s defeat by the yellow vests means the end of carbon pricing. Despite the media’s ignorant crisis-babble, people everywhere now place their well-being ahead of climate alarmism. Post Script: Since I first wrote this post, the yellow vest protests have spread to: Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada (12 cities), Croatia, Egypt, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Taiwan and Tunisia. Whew! Next is our provocative series: The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
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The Climate Industrial Complex
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Climate change is not about warming, carbon or even renewables; at root, it is a ruse to confuse and to beguile people into enacting the radical green agenda.
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The Climate Industrial Complex
By: George Noga – April 22, 2018
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Few Americans know what you are about to read. I became aware of parts of this saga only during the past year despite writing about climate change for 10 years. It is an incredible but 100% true story. Buckle your seat belts and hang on for a wild ride.
Once upon a time, an existential climate crisis threatened Earth. Scientists were certain they had found the cause and that it was man-made. Alarmed environmentalists and credulous politicians quickly fell into line. International conferences produced a United Nations convention, followed later by a protocol. Lakes, rivers and forests were dying and a war on coal was declared. Public alarm was intense; in Germany, hysteria reached fever pitch. The media sensationally asserted that the planet was dying.
The National Academy of Sciences and the EPA said the evidence of its cause was “overwhelming”. The president created a blue ribbon scientific working group to study the problem and signed international agreements. When the next president expressed skepticism, 3,000 scientists protested. Cap and trade legislation was in Congress. Then came a huge surprise! The blue ribbon scientific working group found that the science was all wrong. The true cause of the problem was identified, the problem fixed and the planet saved. The EPA never admitted it was wrong; they suppressed the evidence and used dirty tricks to discredit the scientist who proved them wrong. EPA still clings to the discredited story and still spends money on the disproven cause. To end your suspense, the above story is about acid rain, which was but one part of a long train of junk climate science beginning with the nuclear winter panic in the 1950-60s. Then came acid rain in the 1970s, followed by global cooling and the ice age. Next came global warming which morphed into today’s climate change paranoia. All these episodes share a common playbook. An existential threat to the planet is conjured; scientists are certain they know the cause; international organizations jump on the bandwagon; the media sensationalize with apocalyptic hype; the public panics; politicians demand more money and power; and anyone skeptical is branded a heretic. They have one other significant thing in common: they have been proven wrong about everything. My study of global warming leads to two unshakable conclusions. Man’s role is somewhere between non-existent and inconsequential. A peer reviewed study (Fyfe, Gillett, Zwiers) of 15-year rolling average temperatures shows Earth returning to its long-term secular warming pattern of .7 degrees Celsius per century; i.e. the warming is not man-made. The evidence against human causation is strong and includes warming throughout the solar system, no warming for 20 years, failure of all climate models, most warming occurring before 1945 and much more. There is something much bigger going on. Climate change is misdirection having little to do with CO2, warming or renewables. It is maskirovka by radical leftists and environmentalists and their fellow travelers in science, media and politics to beguile and to scare people into enacting their agenda. They have used the same playbook for everything from nuclear winter to climate change. In his book Green Tyranny Darwall (see source note) labels all these groups the climate industrial complex. This Earth Day take a moment to ponder nuclear winter, acid rain, global cooling and the coming ice age. The same people and organizations in media, science and politics, i.e. the climate industrial complex, were certain about all these crises and they were dead wrong every time. They are just as wrong now about man-made warming! Source Note: Some of the data used in this post were taken from “Green Tyranny” by Rupert Darwall. If you are interested in this issue, I wholeheartedly recommend you read this book. Beginning next week MLLG pivots to China and the Trump tariffs
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Startling Climate Change Perspective
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| Ominous pronouncements from science, government and media about climate change |
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Startling Climate Change Perspective
By: George Noga – April 1, 2018
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The following excerpts from respected sources in science, government and media just might change your outlook about climate change and global warming. Newsweek: “There are ominous signs earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically; these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production. The evidence has begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard pressed to keep up. . . If the climate change is as profound as the pessimists fear, the resulting famine could be catastrophic. . . . The longer we delay, the more difficult it will be to cope with climate change once the results become grim reality.” New York Times: “Some experts believe mankind is on the threshold of a new pattern of adverse global climate change for which it is ill prepared. . . this climate change poses a threat to the people of the world.” Time Magazine: “The scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are confidently predicting the current weather will continue.” New York Times: “The US and Russia are exploring why Arctic climate and sea ice is changing so rapidly and so ominously.“ Science Digest: “World’s climatologists are agreed we must prepare for the next climate epoch.” Professor Hubert Lamb: “We are on a definite course for the next two centuries. There may be a few fluctuations but these are more than offset by the general trend.” New York Times: “An international team of specialists has concluded there is no end in sight to the trend of the past 30 years.” CIA: “Climate leaders agree climate change has caused major economic problems throughout the world.“ Professor James Hays: “A trend has already begun. . . and it should continue for the next 20,000 years.” National Center for Atmospheric Research: “There are strong signs that recent climate disasters were not random deviations from the usual weather, but instead signal the emergence of a new normal for world climate.” Reuters: “The threat of climate change must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for all of mankind.” Harper’s Magazine: “Rising ocean waters may flood most of our port cities within the foreseeable future.“ I could fill many more pages with the same stuff. How certain and how dire their warnings – comparing climate change to nuclear war, predicting massive starvation and severe climate for the next 20,000 years. Their predictions for 20,000 years did not survive even 20 years; all the quotes in this post are about global cooling and the coming ice age! Today, science, government and media are equally certain and apocalyptic about the opposite of what they were certain about a few decades ago. There constantly are new revelations about contrary science, shoddy research, concocted data, fraudulent peer review, plugged computer models, compliant scientific journals, refusals to debate, quashing of dissent and warming throughout the solar system. These often involve the same people who were so wrong about global cooling. But wait; it gets worse. The UN IPCC predicted that by 2010 there would be 50 million climate refugees and even published a map showing where they would be as a result of rising sea levels. That was 8 years ago; today there are exactly zero climate refugees, no rise in sea level, no food shortages and even the ozone hole has filled in. I apologize if you were momentarily fooled, but it is April 1st. We will have more to say about climate and the environment as we approach Earth Day. Stay tuned. Our next post is about business ethics and social responsibility.
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Climate Change Part V – Putting It All Together
| Stanford University researchers estimate we will spend at least 100 trillion dollars to reduce temperature three-tenths of one degree by the end of this century. |
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Climate Change Part V – Putting It All Together
By: George Noga – April 9, 2017
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In case you missed the preheader, the Stanford University Energy Forum (as well as other scientists) believes mankind will spend $100,000,000,000,000 (one hundred trillion) to achieve a temperature reduction of .3 degrees (three-tenths of one degree) by the year 2100. Despite this insanity, progressives embrace man-made warming as their chosen means to achieve government control over every aspect of our lives. They can succeed only by scaring enough people to believe warming threatens life on Earth. That’s why debunking man-made warming is the most important issue of our time!
MLLG’s position, first stated in 2007, is that Earth is in the midst of a secular, solar caused warming trend that began circa 1850 and is a normal part of alternate warming and cooling cycles throughout history. Increases in CO2 from human activity may add a small and inconsequential amount – perhaps 10% – to warming. Moreover, we believe moderate warming (as predicted by the UN-IPCC) would be a net benefit to mankind. Even if warming were a real problem, all of our current solutions are wrongheaded.
The case against anthropogenic warming is strong. NASA documented warming in 10 other places in our solar system; the probability of this occurring if Earth’s warming is man-made is over 1,000 to 1 (2^10) against. There has been a hiatus in warming for 20 years and every computer model is laughably wrong. No model has been corrected since 1998 because it is impossible. There was warming from 1910-1945, cooling 1946-1975, warming 1976-1998 and nothing since. Try fitting that into a model. About 75% of the warming last century occurred from 1910 to 1945 when CO2 was low.
Despite compelling evidence to the contrary, many people continue to believe warming is man-made and presents an existential threat; why is this so? Such people ignore numerous and powerful warning signs they are wrong. In addition to the evidence noted in the preceding paragraph, they choose to ignore the refusal of politicians and scientists to debate, an increasing antarctic icecap, failure of oceans to rise as expected, the decrease in extreme weather and serious frauds perpetrated by climate scientists. People misplaced their trust in the media, government-funded science and politicians – just as they did for 100 other junk science scares since 1950.
Even if humans are responsible for warming, everything we are now doing is wrong. We should use strict cost-benefit analysis, maximize economic growth, prioritize spending programs, fund research for renewables, correctly apply the precautionary principle, stop exporting pollution, encourage debate and keep an open mind to new science. We must be fact based, principled and objective instead of fanatical and emotional. We must stop the utter insanity of spending more than $100 trillion to (perhaps – maybe) reduce temperature by a mere .3 degrees 80 years from now.
Furthermore, we must vigorously challenge the assumption that warming is bad. It is true warming will cause fatalities, but far more people will be saved from the cold. On a net basis, millions more will live because of warming. In the US and worldwide, people prefer warmer temperatures; they don’t retire from Florida to Minnesota. A warmer planet also is better for agriculture, energy costs and biodiversity.
Finally, Singapore has much to teach us. The average maximum daily temperature in Singapore is 55 degrees warmer than the global average. Singapore transformed itself from a third world swampy island into an uber-modern, clean, high tech city with per capita GDP of $65,000 (7th in the world). It is ethnically diverse and one of the most peaceful places on earth. If Singapore achieved all this despite being 55 degrees warmer, the rest of the world should easily cope with just a degree or so of warming.
This concludes our climate change series. If you still believe in man-made warming, you must ignore, inter alia, 1,000 to 1 odds against, the failure of all climate models, no warming since 1998, the climate pattern since 1910 and Singapore. And don’t forget the record population of polar bears. I bet you thought I had forgotten about them!
The 105th anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic is the subject of our next post
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Climate Change Part IV – If Humans Cause Warming
| We are spending trillions to achieve an uncertain, infinitesimal benefit in the distant future. What actions should we take today if warming is man-made? |
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Climate Change Part IV – If Humans Cause Warming
By: George Noga – April 2, 2017
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Assuming (for purposes of this posting only) that MLLG believes human activity is responsible for global warming, this post presents the ten most critical policies and actions (in approximate order of priority) that mankind should take in response.
1. Use cost-benefit analysis. EPA carbon regulations cost $100 billion over five years. The putative benefits are reductions of 1 part per thousand per year in carbon and 2.35 ten-thousandths of one degree per year in temperature. Costs are real, immediate and certain whereas the benefits are microscopic, remote and uncertain. Europe’s diesel regulations cause thousands of deaths each year due to increased soot, but the benefit is only 4 one-thousandths of one degree in 50 years. Current climate policies cost trillions and will make no detectable difference in climate even 100 years in the future.
2. Maximize economic growth. A wealthy planet is better able both to alter and to mitigate the effects of warming. In fact, mitigation may be a much better and less costly strategy to combat warming versus trying to lower temperature. This conserves resources if warming proves to be solar caused or is less problematic than expected.
3. Fund research for renewable energy and conservation. Today, wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables are not cost effective. Rather than squander scarce resources as described in number one supra, redirect spending toward research for the future.
4. Prioritize spending. Government spending (US and foreign) must achieve the most good for the most people – again based on cost-benefit analysis. Independent scientists and economists rank many priorities ahead of climate including third world projects for clean water, sanitation and immunization. Hundreds of millions of lives could be saved today versus the possibility of some infinitesimal and uncertain future climate benefit.
5. Don’t export pollution. Measures to reduce CO2 imposed only by rich nations result in the shifting of production to poorer countries without such regulations. This process exports pollution and exacerbates warming. Earth is better off when production takes place in the US versus India or China. The US should abandon unilateral actions that waste money and export warming. Carbon reduction must be global to be effective.
6. Correctly apply the precautionary principle. It is sensible to exercise caution but nonsensical to assert that one can’t be too careful. The worst case scenario should never dictate policy; under that logic, no one would ever get into an automobile. It is a grotesque misapplication of the precautionary principle to bankrupt ourselves today in order to lavish money on a possible but uncertain problem in the distant future.
7. Fund research in an unbiased manner. All public funding should be devoid of politics and not biased in favor of scientists with any particular point of view. Our objective is to get at the truth, not to advance an agenda. The UN-IPCC should be non political with scientists, not politicians, writing all the reports and summaries.
8. Science is never settled. Scientists should continue to study all aspects of climate change including: (1) the linkage between CO2 and temperature as well as any amplification or dampening effects; (2) whether warming is positive or negative for humanity understanding that warming kills far fewer people than cooling; (3) warming throughout the solar system; and (4) climate models that incorporate the past 20 years of data. Finally, because there is so much hullabaloo about scientific consensus, there should be an independent and anonymous poll conducted of climate scientists.
9. Encourage debates. Scientists should publicly debate each other as should politicians in unbiased media environments. That would be very enlightening.
10. Be objective and eschew emotion and fanaticism. Scientists, politicians, media and educators all should be strictly objective and dispassionate. We all seek the truth.
Not even one of the above 10 policies is now being followed; instead, antithetical policies are in effect. There is no cost-benefit analysis, robust economic growth, prioritization of spending, debate or objectivity and we are exporting pollution.
It is in the interest of all, believers and deniers alike, dispassionately and objectively to seek the truth, even if it ultimately shatters our current beliefs. Even those who passionately believe in man-made warming must recognize that what we are now doing is not only wrong but incredibly wasteful, counterproductive and dishonest!
The next post on April 9th is the final in our climate change series
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Climate Change Part III – Why People Believe
| There is no shortage of reasons people cling to their belief in man-made warming. |
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Climate Change Part III – Why People Believe
By: George Noga – March 26, 2017
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Progressives dogmatically embrace man-made climate change because it is the key to realizing their global agenda. Whether or not climate change is real is irrelevant to them because it is the only issue that can enable them to force their agenda on all of humanity. They need us to believe climate change threatens the existence of life on Earth and only government can prevent it. If people accept that premise, they will cede total power to liberal elites to impose a carbon tax, VAT and Draconian regulations, the end result of which is absolute government control over every aspect of our lives!
This is so critical, it bears restating. Liberals see man-made climate change as a wedge issue to gain total control, which they can’t achieve via the ballot box. We never will change progressive minds because they don’t give a hoot about climate change; to them it is only a means to an end. Liberals succeed only if they can convince enough others that climate change is real. That is how the battle of our time will be decided.
Let’s look at the top 5 reasons other people, including many of good will, continue to believe in man-made global warming despite all the evidence to the contrary.
1. Warning signs were ignored. There have been numerous and powerful warning signs warming is not man-made. The refusal of scientists and politicians to debate was a bright red flag; if the science truly was settled, they should have been eager to debate. Warming throughout our solar system yields powerful (1,000 to 1) evidence of solar causation. The 20-year hiatus in warming and the failure of computer models are dispositive. The increasing antarctic icecap, failure of seas to rise as expected and the decrease in extreme weather are compelling evidence. Frauds were promulgated by climate scientists to show more warming. They altered data (infamous hockey stick graph) and recently, NOAA scientists substituted flawed data for correct data.
2. People wanted to believe. They uncritically accepted warming just as they did other junk science: fluoridation, pesticides, Laetrile, overpopulation, acid rain, organic food, ozone holes, Alar, silicon implants, killer bees, GMOs, vaccines, global cooling, Mad Cow, SARS, Avian Flu, Thimerosal, Swine Flu, dioxin, PCBs, BPA, pink slime, fracking and acrylamide to name but a few of the 100 cases of recent junk science.
3. They trusted the media. There is the thinnest reed of truth (a tenuous link between CO2 and temperature) to beguile even people of good will. But believers forgot that the media carry water for progressives; they are the opposite side of the same coin.
4. Science is politicized; never settled. Government funds $3,000 to every $1 funded by others for climate research; you get what you pay for. President Eisenhower said the following: “The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by federal allocations and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.” Newton discovered gravity in 1665; it was settled until Einstein 240 years later. People accepted that 97% of climate scientists believe in man-made causation; the real figure is less than 50% and falling rapidly despite the torrent of government money.
5. They misunderstand data. It always is the warmest year somewhere. It is true 2012 was the hottest year in the continental US (1.58% of Earth’s landmass) but 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 all were cooler than 1998 (warmest recent year) by a greater margin than 2012 was warmer than 1998. Most (nearly 75%) of the warming in the 20th century occurred from 1910 to 1945 with low CO2 levels.
For progressives, man-made warming is a religion replete with sacraments (bio-fuel, windmills) and demons (CO2, coal). It labels apostates deniers and seeks to silence or imprison them. They are impervious to facts or logic. Non-progressives misplace their trust in politicians, the media and government-funded science. They ignore abundant and compelling red flags that they are wrong and fail to use every day horse sense.
In Part IV of this series on April 2nd, I become a climate change believer
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