Election 2024 Fearless Forecast

November 3, 2024November 3, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024 Fearless Forecast

Trump wins handily and the GOP takes control of the senate

George Noga
Nov 3, 2024

I based my fearless forecast of a decisive Trump victory on the data listed below. These were the facts as of my final edit on November 2nd.

The average of national polls has the race about even and well within the 3% margin of error. As explained in my October 6th update ¹ (on my website and in Substack archives), Harris must have a lead of at least 4 points to win in the Electoral College. Since the margin of error is 3 points, Harris falls short of her magic number even if the entire margin of error moves in her direction.
Polls show 79% of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Harris’ job approval rating is only 45% while Biden’s is 43%.
Polls in battleground states are tight, with most having Trump a slight favorite; they all are within the margin of error. However, due to Trump’s record of outperforming polls, Harris must be ahead by 2-3 points to win.
Harris has a history of starting strong and fading rapidly.² In her race for CA Attorney General, the vote was much tighter than expected. In the 2019 Dem primary she started off polling 15% but ended up at 1%. The momentum favors Trump as voters learn more about Harris and don’t like what they see.
Legal betting markets favor Trump by over 60%, with the average around 62%.
When asked if they were better off than 4 years ago, 55% say no.
Trends in voting blocks favor Trump. Blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Asians, Catholics, youth and union members all poll stronger for Trump than in prior elections.
Polling on the two major issues, the economy and immigration, strongly favors Trump. Harris leads only on abortion.
In the generic ballot, surveys show the GOP even or slightly ahead. This is better than in prior elections when the generic ballot heavily favored Dems.
Voter registrations (particularly new ones) favor the GOP.
Metrics of enthusiasm, crowd size and yard signs all favor Trump.
Trump is well ahead in the polls versus where he was in 2016 and 2020.
Early voting appears to favor Trump. The GOP has reduced the Dem’s advantage in early voting. This is worth one percentage point for Trump as studies have shown that 10% of voters who plan to vote on election day fail to do so.
Trump’s “favorability” number hit 50% this past week – the highest ever.

Based on the above facts, calling the election for Trump appears to be a no-brainer. However, there is a narrow pathway for Harris to win. There also are many pathways Trump and the GOP could win in a statement election. The odds are as follows.

Harris Wins – 10 % Probability

An unlikely confluence of events could result in a Harris victory. Remember that no one expected Trump to win in 2016 and the much anticipated red wave in 2022 failed to materialize. Here’s what it would take for a Harris victory: (1) the 3% margin of error in the polls swings heavily toward Harris; (2) late momentum breaks her way³; (3) the Dems’ ground game and vote harvesting delivers big time; and (4) Harris squeaks by in enough of the swing states to win.

Trump Wins Comfortably – 50% Probability

This is the most likely outcome, i.e. Trump wins based on all the metrics listed supra. Trump wins all the states he carried in 2020, plus enough swing states to put him comfortably over 270 electoral votes. It will not be a cliffhanger.

Trump Wins Big With Over 300 Electoral Votes – 30% Probability

In this scenario, Trump carries all or nearly all the swing states plus picks off one or more blue states such as NM and CO.

Trump Wins In Landslide – 10% Probability

For this to happen Trump would need to carry all the swing states plus several of the following: NH, NM, CO, VA and MN. In this scenario, Trump also would win the national popular vote.

Republicans Take Back Senate

At a minimum, the GOP will hold onto all of its current senate seats plus pick up seats in WV and MT for a 51-49 majority. If Republicans win big, they will pick up at least two more seats for a 53 to 47 edge. If Trump wins in a landslide, the GOP will add even more seats in some of the following states OH, NV, PA, MI, WI, MD and AZ for a 55 to 45 senate majority.

House of Representatives – Too Close To Call

Republican control of the House likely depends on how well they defend the seats they won in 2022 in CA and NY. However, if Trump wins big, the GOP will pick off several more seats in light blue districts.

1 Harris will amass a margin of over 6 million votes in CA, NY and IL (combined) over Trump’s margin in TX and FL (combined). This results in a 6 million vote margin for Trump in the other 45 states. Finally, 6 million votes equal 4% of the total vote of 150 million. This math explains why Harris must win the national vote by at least 4 points to win in the Electoral College.

2 This is explained by her likeability problem. She comes across as inauthentic because she cannot articulate her true beliefs – which (outside of California) are political suicide.

3 There can be significant movement in the final few days if undecided voters break in the same direction. This happened in 1980 with Reagan and with Humphrey in 1968. The late surge for Humphrey was palpable and he would have won if the election had been just a few days later.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024 – 30 Day Update

October 6, 2024October 6, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024 – 30 Day Update

My fearless forecast of where the election stands 30 days out

George Noga
Oct 6, 2024

This is the latest of my Election 2024 posts. Prior posts on this topic were dated December 10, 2023, April 28, 2024 and August 18, 2024. They all are available in the Substack archives and on my website: www.mllg.us. I will reveal my final fearless forecast on November 3rd – just two days before the election.

A young African American woman casting her ballot in 1964

Where the Election Stands Today

There are new polls released almost every day. The most recent Real Clear Politics average has Harris up nationally by a few points, but with momentum trending toward Trump. In 2016, the final polls had Trump losing by 5 or more percentage points, but he outperformed the polls by 3 points. The same was true to a lesser extent in 2020. This leads to my first key takeaways.

Takeaway #1: Trump will outperform national polls by 2 to 3 points.
Takeaway #2: Trump will outperforms swing state polls by 3 to 5 points.

Moreover, there is a chasm between the total (popular) vote and the Electoral College. In 2020 Biden got 81.3 million votes to 74.2 million for Trump – a difference of 7.1 million or 4.6%. Despite this sizeable margin, Biden barely won the Electoral College; a swing of 50,000 total votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin would have reelected Trump. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes or 2.2%, but barely won the Electoral College. A swing of 75,000 total votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would have elected Clinton.

Takeaway #3: Harris must win by at least 2 points (likely more) in the popular vote in order to get a majority in the Electoral College.
Takeaway #4: Combining takeaways #1 and #3, ceteris paribus, Harris must be up between 4 and 5 points nationally to win the Electoral College.

Gulf Between Popular Vote and Electoral College

There is a huge difference between the total vote and the Electoral College. This is easily explained by a few numbers. Large deep blue states like CA and NY pile up gargantuan margins for Dems, while the GOP margins in large deep red states are small. In 2016, Clinton won CA by 4.3 million and NY by 1.8 million, whereas Trump won TX by 0.8 million and FL by 0.1 million. In 2020, Biden won CA by 5.1 million and NY by 1.9 million, while Trump won TX by 0.6 million and FL by 0.4 million.

Takeaway #5: To the extent Trump cuts Harris’ margins in deep blue states, it reduces the margin by which she must win the popular vote. There is basis to believe this is happening; that’s why I added “ceteris paribus” to #4 above.

Fearless Forecast for President

Based on the five takeaways listed supra, if the election were held today, Trump would win because Harris is up only slightly nationally. The Harris campaign knows this and is getting close to panic mode. Further, Trump is running well ahead of where he was 30 days before the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Kamala has a serious likeability problem; the more people know about her and see her, the less they like her. She is a deeply flawed candidate. When she ran for president in 2016, she started by polling 15% but ended up with 1%. She was the first candidate to drop out of the Dem primaries. She can’t be trusted to hold a press conference or even an interview with a serious journalist. I expect Kamala’s support to attrit between now and the election. This leads to my final takeaway.

Takeaway #6: Time is not Kamala’s friend.

If Trump runs a proper campaign and avoids self-inflicted wounds, he should win by a comfortable margin. However, Trump is also a flawed candidate and is showing a lack of focus on the issues and is prone to hyperbole and distraction. I continue to believe 2024 is Trump’s election to lose but also that he is fully capable of losing it.

Fearless Forecast for Senate and House

The senate electoral map in 2024 favors republicans. I expect the GOP to hold all its existing Senate seats and to pick up seats in WV (a near certainty) and MT (highly likely). This would flip the Senate to 51 Republican and 49 Democrat. Moreover, if Trump wins decisively, I look for the GOP to pick up one or more seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada resulting in a larger Republican majority.

The House is too close to call. Control likely depends on whether or not the GOP can hang onto the seats in CA and NY it picked up in 2022.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Biden or Trump? It Shouldn’t Matter!

June 23, 2024September 11, 2024 George Noga

Biden or Trump? It Shouldn’t Matter!

Whoever is president should make little difference in our lives

George Noga
June 23, 2024

Each presidential election cycle I remind readers that whoever is president should be of little concern. For the first 150 years of our republic, the party or identity of the president was irrelevant because he had little power over our lives. That is just as our founders intended. The Constitution grants the executive only a few enumerated and limited powers within a framework of separation of powers and checks and balances designed to prevent concentration and abuse of power. Who was on the school board, mayor or governor mattered more in our daily lives than who was president.

In earlier times, government stayed mostly inside its constitutional box. Presidents exercised limited power and vetoed unconstitutional bills. Congress used to check legislation to make sure it passed constitutional muster; it did not cede power to an army of unelected bureaucrats which has morphed into a deep state. The judiciary was largely apolitical. States jealously guarded their rights as part of federalism. The media held government accountable. Ordinary citizens held power to convene grand juries and to nullify laws; they valued liberty above all and voted accordingly.

We have strayed from the halcyon days of limited government to an overbearing one that dictates the amount of water in our toilets, which restrooms to use and can’t define a woman. A recent president declared he would stop the rise of oceans. Even King Canute in the 12th century knew better; his famous anecdote was really to illustrate his humility; unlike Obama, he knew he could not command the tides.

We have gotten to a congress that in the dead of night passes 2,000 page bills containing trillions in spending. We have a hyperpolitical judiciary that conjures new rights from thin air and has abandoned equal justice under law. We have become like Lavrentiy Beria, former chief of the KGB, who said, “show me the man and I’ll show you the crime”. Even the FBI and the intelligence community have taken to pushing misinformation. We have a jury pool in many jurisdictions that is too politicized for a fair trial. We have millions of bureaucrats and 250,000 pages of regulations. We have a statist media, neutered states and a populous that meekly accepts all these horrors.

The concentration of immense power over our daily lives in the hands of the president was predictable. Jefferson understood this when he wrote, “It is the natural order of things for government to gain and for liberty to yield”. Free market capitalism has made Americans so rich we forgot the wellspring of our liberty and prosperity. This has given recent generations the wherewithal to embrace socialism and the leviathan state. Any society that indulges in psychologists and acupuncturists for their pets has badly lost its way. Like Esau, we sold our birthright for a bowl of stew.

Unfortunately, who we elect president in November will wield enormous power over our lives. Presidents have morphed into potentates with unchecked power, unthinkable in the earlier days of our republic. We have come to view elections as contests between good and evil. Everything in our lives has become politicized. We view those with whom we disagree as not merely wrong, but evil. This dehumanization of political adversaries sanctions increasingly extreme behavior.

Our liberty is a priceless jewel of inestimable value. However, its setting has become badly tarnished. It is up to us to restore its original luster by putting government back inside its constitutional box. If we succeed, one day in the future who becomes president will again be of little consequence.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Democracy Sucks

June 16, 2024September 11, 2024 George Noga

Democracy Sucks

Defending the Electoral College

George Noga
June 16, 2024

Since this is a presidential election year, it’s time to revisit questions that arise every four years about the Electoral College, popular vote and democracy. To begin, answer the following question and then ask it of family and friends. It is simple, yet 90% get it wrong. Question: What is the form of government of the United States (a) constitutional republic; (b) representative democracy; (c) democratic republic; (d) direct democracy; (e) constitutional democracy; or (f) democracy? The answer is later in this post.

Electoral College Gets No Respect

The word democracy is not mentioned in either the Declaration of Independence or the Constitution. That is because America is a republic with a republican form of government – not a democracy. A republic is a representative form of government pursuant to a charter or constitution and often consisting of subordinate political entities. Remember: we pledge allegiance to the flag and to the republic for which it stands; we sing the Battle Hymn of the Republic. Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution guarantees to every state a republican form of government.

The Electoral College is consistent with, and a democracy is inconsistent with, a republican form of government. A popular vote would destroy the carefully crafted constitutional architecture based on federalism, separation of powers and checks and balances. A popular vote for president severs it from the rest of the constitutional forms, creates a myriad of new troubles and unleashes tyranny of the majority.

Critics assert that a national popular vote would have changed the outcome of some elections. The truth is there never has been a true popular vote, only a meaningless total of votes cast within the electoral college system. No Democrat squanders precious time and resources in deep red states and no Republican in deep blue states. Further, Democrats in deep red states and Republicans in deep blue states are not motivated to vote knowing their votes are meaningless. Consequently, the popular vote total within the present system has no validity whatsoever.

Moreover, it is unlikely the popular vote would have changed recent elections when requiring 50% to win as there would have been runoff elections with third party candidates eliminated. Hillary Clinton still would have lost the popular vote in 2016; in a runoff, the Green Party vote would have gone to Clinton but the much larger Libertarian Party vote would have gone to Trump. Since 1824, when popular votes first were recorded, 20 presidents failed to receive over 50%.

The electoral college system limits fraud to smaller jurisdictions, reduces federal power over elections and fosters the building of broad coalitions, while discouraging regionalism. Importantly, it safeguards us against tyranny of the majority.

Very few countries use popular vote; most advanced democratic nations use indirect systems. Recently in Canada, Trudeau won with 33% of the vote; Canada’s senate is based on regions, not population. Parliamentary systems, ubiquitous in Europe, routinely elect minority leaders. The senate in Australia has 12 members for each state – South Australia (1.7 million people) has the same number as New South Wales (7.3 million people). In Switzerland, each canton regardless of size has two members.

The US is a constitutional republic to answer the question posed earlier in this post.

National Popular Vote – One Person One Vote

We must go back to first principles. What is the purpose of government? Is it to instantly actualize the will of a bare majority at every moment? Or instead, is the measure of good government whether it is effective at creating long-term justice, stability, freedom and security – like in the US since 1787? If instant actualization is what you want, then the popular vote is for you – but beware the consequences.

Progressives consternate over inequalities inherent in a republic such as in the senate where Wyoming has the same number of senators as California. They consternate about the Electoral College and the filibuster. Under our republican government, senators and the Electoral College represent states – not people.

There is a Soros-funded organization, National Popular Vote or NPV, that aims to replace the Electoral College by a pact among states to pledge their electors to whoever wins the NPV. Thus far 16 blue states with 195 electoral votes have passed enabling legislation. It takes effect when states with 270 electoral votes ratify. Even if NPV reaches its goal, it is unconstitutional. Article I, Section 10 prohibits any compact between or among states without the consent of Congress.

Democracy and Tyranny of the Majority

America’s founders, extraordinarily well versed in history, had contempt for democracy, which they regarded as tyranny. Thomas Paine said, “Democracy is the vilest form of government.” Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on dinner.

While doing my research, I was unable to find one democracy past or present where the majority did not tyrannize minorities. Majoritarian tyranny is occurring throughout the world today including in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, China, Russia, Mexico, Myanmar, Sudan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Bolivia, Kyrgyzstan, Indonesia, Botswana, Congo, Central African Republic and much of Latin America and the Arab world. During just the past century, over 100 million Europeans were slaughtered in genocides, pogroms, holocausts and ethnic cleansings. Every one involved tyranny of the majority.

America’s founding fathers, well aware of the excesses of democracy, filled the Constitution with firewalls to protect against the depredations of the mob. Human nature has not changed since 1787 and tyranny of the majority remains an unfortunate part of the human condition.

Returning, as always, to first principles and the purpose of government, do we really want instant actualization by a bare majority? The US Constitution has served us well for 237 years including the Electoral College, Senate and filibuster. Those who argue for democracy are woefully ignorant of history and human nature.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024: Voter Ignorance

May 12, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024: Voter Ignorance

Voters may be ignorant, but they are not stupid

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 12, 2024

This post continues my analysis of the 2024 election. Most voters don’t know our form of government, wrongly believing it to be a democracy rather than a constitutional republic. This explains why they also misunderstand the Electoral College and the makeup of the Senate. They don’t grasp the dangers inherent in a pure democracy and fail to understand why the will of a bare majority cannot be instantly actualized.

The founders didn’t see voter ignorance as a problem because the federal government had little power over the lives of citizens. Politics was mostly local and voters often knew the candidates personally or, at a minimum, knew firsthand of their reputation. Furthermore, voting was limited to a small cohort of educated white male landowners. Under federalism, senators were not elected; they were appointed by states.

Everything has changed. Government at all levels exercises enormous power over our lives; it accounts for nearly 40% of GDP versus 5% in the early years of the republic. Senators are now elected directly and few voters have any firsthand knowledge of the candidates. There is universal suffrage and issues have become much more complex.

Just how serious of a problem is voter ignorance? Is it problematic that voters spend much more time comparison shopping for a new TV than on candidates and issues? Such voters are behaving rationally because their decision about a TV makes an immediate and significant difference in their lives – in terms of both cost and quality. In contrast, the chance their vote will make any difference is infinitesimal.

Just because voters may be ignorant about the candidates and issues does not mean they are stupid or irrational. Should voters spend countess hours studying the intricacies of foreign trade, immigration and tax policy? There are several ways voters behave in an erudite manner despite being grossly underinformed or misinformed.

Voters rely on political parties and endorsements. Our two major political parties have well defined and long established philosophies of governance. A liberal voter will gravitate toward one party, a conservative voter toward another.
Issues and Media inform voters. Those who rank abortion as the most important issue will vote one way; those who favor limited government, another.
Candidates go to great lengths to define themselves and also their opponents. Even though this process is hackneyed, those who vote based on candidates, rather than parties or issues, have ample basis to decide.
Voters recognize and act on serious problems. When the US is beset with critical problems – social, economic or geopolitical – many voters will vote out those perceived to be responsible regardless of political party.
Peace and prosperity are rewarded. This is the flip side to #4 above. Voters reward success – again, regardless of party. They reward those who make their lives better.
All else being equal, voters will choose an incumbent over a newbie. They adhere to the old maxim – better the fool that you know than the devil you don’t.
Voters reject prolonged one party rule. Even low information voters viscerally grasp one party rule results in complacency and corruption. Since FDR, only Reagan/Bush won three consecutive elections. No party has won four straight (except reconstruction and FDR) since beginning in 1801 with Jefferson.
People vote with their feet. Currently, we are seeing this writ large as voters are fleeing blue states en mass and moving to red states.

As shown above, even no-information voters usually behave rationally according to their established beliefs and interests. The problem is their beliefs are based on a flawed understanding of the relationship between man and the state. They believe in more government and less liberty instead of more liberty and less government.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024 Update

April 28, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024 Update

How things stand today and my fearless forecast

GEORGE NOGA
APR 28, 2024

This unscheduled posting responds to reader requests for an election update. Following is my take on where things stand now and for the general election.

Democratic Party Nomination

I stand by my belief that the nominee, more likely than not, will be Gavin Newsome. However, Newsome’s star has begun to fade since my last update in December. He now risks being relegated to the same status as other democrat fallen angels such as Beto O’Rourke and Stacey Abrams.

Democratic Party convention-1968 Chicago

Although Biden has secured enough votes for the nomination, there remain six long months to navigate before the general election. What’s obvious to anyone paying attention is also obvious to the Democratic Party he-coons, i.e. Biden is greatly diminished and not likely to finish a second term. This means Kamala Harris will become president and lead the party to electoral disaster in 2026 and 2028. Any of the following is likely to result in Biden not becoming the nominee.

He has more public episodes of falling, incontinence, wandering aimlessly, shaking hands with ghosts and mumbling unintelligibly. Biden navigated the SOTU address because: (1) there was no ad-libbing; (2) he practiced for a week; (3) he was kept up nights to acclimate him to staying up past his bedtime; and (4) he was pumped up with a potent pharmacological smorgasbord.
Party elders persuade him to step down. It would take someone like Barack Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi.
Disastrous poll numbers continue or get even worse. His bowing out could be cast as an unselfish act of statesmanship to make it palatable.
The Chicago Democratic convention gets really ugly and goes rogue.

Debates

There will be no presidential debates if Biden is the nominee. You can put that in the bank. Whether there will be a vice presidential debate is an open question. Democrats are not likely to risk exposing Kamala Harris if it is not necessary.

Lawfare

Democrats will do anything possible to secure at least one conviction before the election so they can label Trump a convicted felon. They don’t care that any conviction almost surely will be reversed on appeal – which would come only after November. The cases against Trump are so pathetically weak it is possible he can get hung juries and/or delay some of the trials until after the election.

However, the jury pools in New York, Washington D.C. and Fulton County are so overwhelmingly progressive, it is likely the Dems can obtain at least one conviction. How much this harms Trump’s electoral prospects is an open question. My guess is there will be some damage but much less than the Dems hope for.

General Election – November 5th

The election will be less about issues and more about ballots. If it is close, the election will be decided by early voting, mail-in voting and ballot harvesting – both legal and illegal. There will be widespread fraud in the dissemination of ballots to millions of people who did not request them. This is how most fraud occurs. Fraud in the counting is not the problem; it is the millions of ballots unaccounted for.

If the election is close, it will not be decided by issues – but by ballots.

The Dems will run on three things: (1) January 6th; (2) abortion; and (3) labelling Trump a convicted felon. The GOP will run on: (1) inflation and the economy; (2) crime; (3) illegal immigration; and (4) Biden’s (if he is the nominee) cognitive state and the specter of Kamala Harris as president. They will run ads with a montage of Biden’s pratfalls interspersed with Kamala Harris giggling uncontrollably.

Who Will Win in November

If the election were today, Trump would win handily against Biden. Trump has made startling inroads few thought possible among Latinos, African-American males, millennials, independents and even suburban women. Trump is ahead in nearly all the swing states and even in the so-called popular vote. Robert Kennedy and the Green Party will draw votes from Biden. The Libertarian Party will hurt Trump; but on balance third parties and independents will hurt Biden more.

But the election is not today; it is 6 months away and Biden may not be the nominee. The outcome of the Dems’ lawfare is unknown but is looking shakier by the week. There will be many unexpected events and likely fake news. Not all of Trump’s support among the demographics listed above is likely to continue.

Most voters don’t focus on the election until after Labor Day and there often are huge swings in October and early November. Carter led Reagan into October but Reagan carried 44 states. Dukakis led Bush by double digits in early October.

Following is my fearless forecast as of April 28, 2024.

If Trump runs against Biden and most of his support among independents, Latinos, Blacks, youths and women holds, he wins decisively.
If Trump’s support dwindles among the aforementioned groups, it will be close and come down to who does better at early voting, mail-ins and harvesting.
If Gavin Newsome or someone else is the nominee, it is too early to opine.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024 Update

December 10, 2023February 11, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024 Update

Will Biden and Trump be the nominees?

GEORGE NOGA

DEC 10, 2023

Readers have asked for my take on the 2024 election. For the many new readers of my blog on the Substack platform, I have been involved as a participant and keen observer of politics for nearly 60 years. I have gotten it right (including Trump in 2016) far more than I have whiffed. Read my political bonafides on Substack.

Democratic Party Nomination

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Party nominee. One of my favorite aphorisms is that if something cannot go on forever, it won’t. Biden cannot go on forever in his present physical and cognitive state. His deterioration is visible to all and is getting worse. Moreover, the Biden family corruption scandal is closing in on him from all sides. Biden will be forced to drop out of the race for the following reasons:

His physical condition, already highly problematic, will deteriorate and he will experience more public episodes of falling, stumbling and fragility.
He will continue to degrade cognitively, again with highly public episodes of confusion, mumbling, silence, misspeaking and spinning tall tales.
Evidence, already quite abundant, of the Biden family business of corruption, influence peddling, money laundering, tax evasion and bribery will reach such a critical mass that it no longer can be plausibly denied. Evidence of Biden corruption is mounting on a weekly basis and will only get worse.
Polling shows Biden losing nationally to Trump and to the other Republican candidates and in nearly all the swing states – by wide and increasing margins.
Biden’s support among independents, Hispanics, Arab-Americans, the young, Black males and suburbanites is tanking by double digits and plummeting.
Democratic politicians and media are publicly challenging Biden’s fitness. It is only a matter of time until one or more top Democrats (Obama?) speaks out.
Biden’s fund raising is anemic; many big donors are holding back.
Kamala Harris is a monumental liability; Biden can’t ditch her – but another nominee could. Moreover, there is a good chance she would become president in a Biden second term and would be a electoral disaster for Democrats in 2028.

Biden will hold out as long as possible because he is stubborn; Jill wants to continue being first lady; and (critically) he wants to retain the power to issue pardons for himself, family members and others involved in promoting the Biden brand.

If Not Biden, Who?

The nominee will be Gavin Newsom; there really aren’t other viable choices. Kamala Harris would be a disaster. Also, invoking Occam’s Razor, Newsom is the most logical choice and he is chomping at the bit to enter the race.

I would not rule out Michelle Obama stepping in at the last minute in a brokered convention. That would have two benefits. First, it would solve the Kamala Harris problem. Second, it would leave little time for Michelle to self destruct. I understand Michelle is popular, but that doesn’t translate into an electoral mandate.

Republican Party Nomination

Trump has such a commanding lead, it is difficult to imagine anyone overtaking him. At the date of this post, the only person with even a long shot is Nikki Haley. Ron DeSantis had a shot but blew it. He made four critical errors, all preventable. Note: I like DeSantis, believe he is a great governor and would make a good president.

His campaign misfired at the very beginning due to mismanagement. He hired the wrong political consultants and managers – since replaced.
He ran on social issues. This was unnecessary as he already had established his anti-wokeness bonafides. He should have left Disney alone; there was no upside from piling on. Instead, he should have focused on bread and butter issues.
DeSantis fails to come across as a personable campaigner.
The Florida six-week abortion ban was a gashing, self-inflicted wound.

General Election

Who will win, Trump or Newsom? The plethora of independent and third party candidates muddies the waters. As of now, the following candidates are likely:

Independent: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Independent: Cornel West
No Labels: Nominee unknown – possibly a Manchin/Romney ticket
Green Party: Jill Stein is the likely nominee
Libertarian Party: Nominee not yet determined

All the independent and third party movements, except the Libertarian Party, favor Trump as they would draw far more votes from Biden.

The election is over 300 days away and it is far too early for me to opine. But stay tuned to my blog for more about election 2024 and my fearless forecast.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com