America’s Greatest Christmas Story

December 22, 2024December 24, 2024 George Noga

America’s Greatest Christmas Story

The true inspirational saga of George Washington’s 1783 Christmas

George Noga
Dec 22, 2024

Reprising a MLLG tradition, I present the greatest American Christmas story. ¹ It is 100% true, known only to a few, deeply moving and uniquely American. It begins November 17, 1783 and ends on Christmas Eve. This could not have happened anywhere but in America; it shaped our republic in ways still being felt today.

a statue of a man riding on the back of a white horse — George Washington

November 17-20 – Newburgh, NY – Word of Peace Treaty

The Continental Army was encamped in Newburgh, NY, where earlier that year Washington quelled a revolt of his officers over back pay. He called a meeting, gave a short talk and then reached in his pocket for a letter from Congress to read aloud. He gazed at the letter and fumbled it without speaking. He then took a pair of reading glasses, which no one had seen him wear before, from his pocket. He then said, “Gentlemen, you will permit me to put on my spectacles, for I have not only grown gray but almost blind in the service of my country.” Everyone was moved to tears as they realized the sacrifices Washington had made. The rebellion died instantly.

On November 17, 1783 George Washington received word the peace treaty had been signed. Now he could resign his commission and return to Mount Vernon, from which he had been away for 8 long years – excepting only a few days while enroute to Yorktown. Washington yearned to be home in time for Christmas but he had less than 6 weeks, many duties to perform and many miles to travel.

Immediately upon learning of the peace treaty, Washington issued farewell orders in which he lauded his troops for the extreme hardships they endured and urged them never to forget the extraordinary events to which they bore witness. He closed by announcing his retirement from service stating, “The curtain of separation soon will be drawn . . . and closed forever”. He appeared above all human ambition. Upon hearing his remarks, King George III called Washington “the greatest man of his age”.

November 21 – December 4 – New York City – Farewell to Officers

Washington traveled the 70 miles from Newburgh to New York arriving November 21. He believed it necessary to reoccupy New York to protect the British withdrawal and to prevent any untoward incidents. Washington was greeted as a hero with cheering crowds. Nearly every home had a drawing or lithograph of him in the window. Receptions and dinners were held nightly in his honor.

On December 4, Washington hosted a farewell reception for his officers at Fraunces Tavern. He realized the inadequacy of any formal address and did not trust his emotions to read one. When all the glasses were filled, he offered a toast.

“With a heart filled with love and gratitude, I now take my leave of you. I most devoutly wish your latter days may be as prosperous and happy as your former ones have been glorious and honorable. . . . I cannot come to each of you but shall be obliged if each of you will come and take me by the hand.”

Thereupon, each officer came forward to take his hand; every one was suffused with tears and unable to utter a single intelligible word.

December 5-18 – Philadelphia, PA

Next, Washington travelled 95 miles to Philadelphia. All along his route and at every stop throughout his entire journey, citizens gathered to pay tribute. Always courteous, the general accepted every proffered hand and returned every greeting.

America never before and never again will experience such an emotional outpouring for one man. Every citizen understood that he conducted them through a long and bloody war that achieved independence for their country. Everyone knew viscerally that there never again would be another such moment or another such man.

December 19-23 – Annapolis, MD – Returning His Commission

Washington traveled 129 miles to Annapolis, then the seat of Congress, arriving on December 19. From December 20-22, he was feted endlessly at lavish dinners and balls – always preceded with 13 toasts followed by 13 cannon shots.

On December 23 there was a special session of Congress to honor Washington and to accept his resignation. Attendance overflowed the facilities with people everywhere. Washington delivered his address, closing by saying, “ I retire from the great theater of action and here offer my commission and take leave of all employments of public life.” Thereupon, Washington withdrew from his coat pocket the parchment given him in 1775 that was his appointment as Commander-in-Chief and ceremoniously returned it. This speech is considered the most significant ever delivered in civil society.

December 24 – Mount Vernon, VA

Immediately after his speech on December 23, Washington set out for Mount Vernon. However, it was so late and the days so short, he got only 26 miles and stopped for the night in Bladensburg, MD. The next morning, Christmas Eve, he rode 16 miles to the Potomac River and crossed via ferry to Alexandria, VA.

Washington then rode the final 6 miles to Mount Vernon. It already was dark but about a mile away from Mount Vernon he could see its many green-shuttered windows all ablaze with candles. It was, after all, Christmas Eve.

I AM TAKING A HOLIDAY BREAK. MY NEXT SCHEDULED POST IS JANUARY 19, 2025. WATCH FOR SPECIAL UNPLANNED POSTS.

THANKS FOR READING MORE LIBERTY – LESS GOVERNMENT. BEST WISHES TO MY READERS FOR A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!

1 For a more in-depth treatment, read “General Washington’s Christmas Farewell – a Mount Vernon Homecoming 1783” by Stanley Weintraub. The 174 page book is available on Amazon. I wholeheartedly recommend this book. Read it to your children over the holidays.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Why DOGE Will Fail

December 15, 2024December 15, 2024 George Noga

Why DOGE Will Fail

There is a long and inglorious history of failure

George Noga
Dec 15, 2024

I have posted frequently about cutting government spending.1 There is no way to make government more efficient; the most that can be accomplished is to reduce its size and scope. It still will be inefficient – just on a smaller scale. None other than Ludwig von Mises weighed in at length in his 1944 book, Bureaucracy. 2

“Citizens compare the operation of the government to business. They find bureaucracy is wasteful, inefficient, slow and cumbersome. They don’t understand how reasonable people allow such a system; why not adopt proven business methods? However, such criticisms are invalid and do not consider the differences between government and business. The bureaucracy cannot be improved by bringing in businessmen.”

There is a lengthy and inglorious history of the appointment of élite blue ribbon committees to cut government waste. The most recent are the 1982 Grace Commission and the 2010 Simpson-Bowles Commission.

Grace Commission

The Grace Commission was established by President Reagan in 1982 to identify government waste and inefficiency. It was chaired by noted businessman J. Peter Grace. The commission presented its report to Congress in January 1984. It concluded that one-third of all government revenue was consumed by waste and inefficiency. Its recommendations would have saved $140 billion per year. However, the GAO and the CBO estimated the savings at only $24 billion per year.

Although the commission highlighted areas for potential cost savings, only a very few of its recommendations were adopted. The actual impact of the Grace Commission was negligible and it proved to be a disappointment. There are compelling parallels between the Grace Commission and DOGE. Both were initiated by conservative presidents fresh off an election mandate and run by acclaimed businessmen.

Simpson-Bowles Commission

In 2010 President Obama established the Simpson-Bowles Commission to address the national debt and deficit. The commission proposed a comprehensive plan to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over 10 years. The plan included both revenue increases and spending cuts. Despite the bipartisan makeup of the commission and the sterling political reputations of Simpson and Bowles, the plan never even came to a vote in Congress – it was dead on arrival.

Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)

DOGE is the latest attempt to cut spending. It was created by a popular president, fresh off an electoral mandate, and is cochaired by the most successful businessman on the planet (Musk) along with another billionaire entrepreneur (Ramaswamy). It has generated much public interest and support. One would certainly think that if ever slashing government spending could be done, it would be by this president and these co-chairs. However, so it also was with Reagan and Grace.

Musk initially asserted he could cut $2 trillion annually. That is impossible without deep cuts to both Social Security and Medicare – which Trump ruled out. Even cutting $1 trillion is a pipe dream; it would require cutting the entire government except for entitlements, mandatory spending, defense and interest on the debt. Following is the actual spending for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2024 in billions. 3

Total revenue from taxes and all other ………. $4,920

Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP, Obamacare …….. 1,600

Social Security ……………………………………………..….. 1,461

Interest on the Debt ………………………………………… 882

National Defense …………………………………………….. 874

Income Security4 ……………………………………………. 671

Veterans’ Benefits …………………………………………… 325

Discretionary Spending ………………………………… 937

Total Spending ……………………………………………… $6,750

Deficit ……………………………………………………………… $1,830

What Will DOGE Actually Accomplish?

Social Security and Medicare are off the table. Income security (government pensions) and interest on the debt cannot be cut. Only minor cuts can be made to defense spending – which most agree should be increased. Big cuts to veterans’ benefits are impossible. That leaves only the cost of running the government ($937 billion). So, what will DOGE accomplish? Following is my fearless forecast.

The best outcome is for DOGE to cut $250 billion or 3.7% overall, but 26% of the $937 billion cost of running the government, i.e. discretionary spending.

A realistic expectation is for DOGE cuts of $100 billion to $200 billion.
The hype from Trump, Musk and Ramaswamy will be over the top. They will shamelessly trumpet and flog all their spending and personnel cuts. They will represent them to be more significant than they really are.
The hype from those opposed to the cuts will be outrageous. They will shamelessly trot out people allegedly harmed and assert DOGE is throwing granny over the cliff and starving children to death. Be prepared to see ads depicting alleged victims in the most dire circumstances imaginable.
Every government program has a constituency both inside and outside government. Expect them to fight fiercely to save even minor budget cuts.

DOGE has the most propitious opportunity in my lifetime to effect meaningful spending cuts. However, the math is heavily stacked against it. I look for a typical government ending to DOGE. In the final reckoning, DOGE will cut spending by up to $200 billion (including fiscal legerdemain) and will claim victory by asserting they cut $2 trillion over 10 years. Opponents also will claim victory by limiting spending cuts to a minimum and living to fight another day to restore the cuts.

It is impossible to take the politics out of politics. In the end, all sides will claim victory. The spending cuts will be less than meets the eye – they will be mostly hat and no cattle. Over time, the cuts will be restored and life in Washington will go on as before.

If DOGE cuts say $200 billion, that’s exactly 3% of all spending – weak tea indeed. All such a cut will do is to reduce the deficit by 11%. At most, it would delay the final reckoning by one year. It would not alter the death spiral trajectory of America’s spending, deficit and debt crisis.

Moreover, Trump’s campaign promises exert a strong bias for more spending and/or less revenue and will offset most of the DOGE spending reductions which, contrary to assertions, cannot be made up by tariffs and more energy production.

At day’s end, it is all about the numbers. There simply is no pathway for significant spending cuts without putting Social Security and health care (Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP and Obamacare) on the table. Stay tuned; it will be a wild ride!

Please see my most recent post “Government Failure Explained” dated October 20, 2024. It is available on my website www.mllg.us and in the Substack archives.
The following quote has been updated for modern usage, but the meaning is unchanged.
These data were for FY 23-24. This FY interest on the debt will increase another $100+ billion and Social Security and Medicare will increase significantly due to unfavorable demographics.
This includes unemployment, SSI, federal pensions and SNAP among others.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Why Liberals Hate Capitalism

December 8, 2024December 8, 2024 George Noga

Why Liberals Hate Capitalism

Capitalism is to each according to his accomplishments

America is engaged in a great culture war for the preservation of capitalism along with liberty – which is symbiotically linked to capitalism. As economist Joseph Schumpeter predicted a century ago, capitalism has sown the seeds of its own destruction.1 Schumpeter laid the blame at the feet of liberal professors who, freed from the need to work, would promote anti-capitalist dogma which eventually would result in people voting for a social welfare state, i.e. socialism.

College professors indoctrinating socialism

“Capitalism will not survive. Its demise will not be due to economic failure; instead its very success . . . creates conditions in which it cannot survive.” Schumpeter

Just how bad is the anti-capitalist mentality? In recent polls, a majority of Americans ages 18-29 believe socialism is the ideal economic system2 They embrace feel-good notions about some abstract socialist utopia3 that never has existed and never can exist. They simultaneously harbor a dark vision of capitalism as a dog-eat-dog system. Clearly, the vituperation of capitalism by professors has infected college students and wafted into the general population. It appears Schumpeter was prescient.

Why Liberals Favor Socialism Over Capitalism

There are many reasons progressives hate capitalism and embrace socialism.

Capitalism evolved organically. No intellectual wrote a capitalist manifesto. Adam Smith did not invent capitalism; he merely explained what people did naturally. Capitalism just happens; it doesn’t require academics to theorize.
No one is needed to control capitalism. Socialism however requires controllers, i.e. socialist intellectuals who deign to know what is best for everyone.
Capitalism is egalitarian. Some uneducated bloke can make a fortune stripping junked autos for parts because he provides a valuable service to consumers. In contrast, the intellectual feels unrecognized and unrewarded.
Professors are rewarded by bureaucrats, not markets. They succeed by pleasing statist employers, not by providing value to consumers.
Capitalism is to each according to his accomplishments, not his intentions.
Liberals believe their advanced degrees, pet theories and pristine intentions should be rewarded and override the free decisions of consumers, if necessary by using the police power of the state. Capitalists believe in laissez faire.
Collectivists prefer government regulation to the chaos of the marketplace.
Consumers are sovereign. Intellectuals enjoy no special status and the common man holds all the power via his decisions to buy or not to buy. The most powerful economic force on earth is a consumer armed with a free choice. Wealth can be achieved only by serving sovereign consumers – with every penny a vote.
Capitalism brooks no excuses for failure. Those who fail are found wanting by their fellow man. Both the carrot and stick are real. The economic landscape is littered with failed businesses and crushed dreams of wannabe entrepreneurs. Under socialism, there are no consequences for failure.
Socialists desire control over others because they know what is best for the poor ignorant rubes in flyover land. Capitalists just want to be left alone.
Intellectuals see themselves as heroic figures reining in greedy capitalists, saving helpless victims and basking in the approbation of mankind. Capitalists simply want to provide a product or service consumers value more than its cost.
Liberals focus on the perceived inequalities and social injustices of capitalism rather than on its astounding success in ending extreme poverty on our planet.
Progressives ignore the total failure of all collectivist systems ever imposed by man. They ignore Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea and the former USSR and believe they will get it right the next time. Capitalists know better.

Schumpeter’s Prediction: True or False?

Over 100 years ago Schumpeter predicted the success of capitalism would lead to its destruction. He feared the demise of capitalism, along with its corollaries of wealth and liberty, would usher in a new dark age resulting in a lengthy and unspeakable Orwellian torpor where men lead lives of quiet desperation. We are now in the end stage of a great cultural war to decide if our children and grandchildren inherit a world of free men and free markets or one of a never-ending socialist miasma.

I fear Americans have lost the critical connection between capitalism and the wealth and liberty it produces. By most objective metrics, it appears socialism is on the ascendancy. Even in America, that great bastion of capitalism and the richest country on earth, its youth favor socialism. Hopefully, this post will help explain why America’s liberal intelligentsia hate capitalism and love socialism.

Liberty is like a beautiful but fragile garden in the middle of the jungle; it requires constant vigilance to survive. It is not a natural state, but must be protected constantly against forces trying to destroy it. We Americans are not doing a good enough job tending the garden. Nowhere is it written that the garden will survive.

Please see my posts of March 4, 2018 and March, 11, 2018 for a comprehensive analysis of Schumpeter’s prediction. All my posts are available on my website: www.mllg.us.
See my post of May 26, 2024. It is available in the Substack archives and on my website.
Most college students who favor socialism trot out Sweden as an example of a socialist nirvana. They are blissfully ignorant that Sweden is a capitalist state with sky-high taxes on its middle class. If Sweden were a US state, it would be 30% poorer than the USA’s poorest state, Mississippi.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024 Fearless Forecast

November 3, 2024November 3, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024 Fearless Forecast

Trump wins handily and the GOP takes control of the senate

George Noga
Nov 3, 2024

I based my fearless forecast of a decisive Trump victory on the data listed below. These were the facts as of my final edit on November 2nd.

The average of national polls has the race about even and well within the 3% margin of error. As explained in my October 6th update ¹ (on my website and in Substack archives), Harris must have a lead of at least 4 points to win in the Electoral College. Since the margin of error is 3 points, Harris falls short of her magic number even if the entire margin of error moves in her direction.
Polls show 79% of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Harris’ job approval rating is only 45% while Biden’s is 43%.
Polls in battleground states are tight, with most having Trump a slight favorite; they all are within the margin of error. However, due to Trump’s record of outperforming polls, Harris must be ahead by 2-3 points to win.
Harris has a history of starting strong and fading rapidly.² In her race for CA Attorney General, the vote was much tighter than expected. In the 2019 Dem primary she started off polling 15% but ended up at 1%. The momentum favors Trump as voters learn more about Harris and don’t like what they see.
Legal betting markets favor Trump by over 60%, with the average around 62%.
When asked if they were better off than 4 years ago, 55% say no.
Trends in voting blocks favor Trump. Blacks, Hispanics, Jews, Asians, Catholics, youth and union members all poll stronger for Trump than in prior elections.
Polling on the two major issues, the economy and immigration, strongly favors Trump. Harris leads only on abortion.
In the generic ballot, surveys show the GOP even or slightly ahead. This is better than in prior elections when the generic ballot heavily favored Dems.
Voter registrations (particularly new ones) favor the GOP.
Metrics of enthusiasm, crowd size and yard signs all favor Trump.
Trump is well ahead in the polls versus where he was in 2016 and 2020.
Early voting appears to favor Trump. The GOP has reduced the Dem’s advantage in early voting. This is worth one percentage point for Trump as studies have shown that 10% of voters who plan to vote on election day fail to do so.
Trump’s “favorability” number hit 50% this past week – the highest ever.

Based on the above facts, calling the election for Trump appears to be a no-brainer. However, there is a narrow pathway for Harris to win. There also are many pathways Trump and the GOP could win in a statement election. The odds are as follows.

Harris Wins – 10 % Probability

An unlikely confluence of events could result in a Harris victory. Remember that no one expected Trump to win in 2016 and the much anticipated red wave in 2022 failed to materialize. Here’s what it would take for a Harris victory: (1) the 3% margin of error in the polls swings heavily toward Harris; (2) late momentum breaks her way³; (3) the Dems’ ground game and vote harvesting delivers big time; and (4) Harris squeaks by in enough of the swing states to win.

Trump Wins Comfortably – 50% Probability

This is the most likely outcome, i.e. Trump wins based on all the metrics listed supra. Trump wins all the states he carried in 2020, plus enough swing states to put him comfortably over 270 electoral votes. It will not be a cliffhanger.

Trump Wins Big With Over 300 Electoral Votes – 30% Probability

In this scenario, Trump carries all or nearly all the swing states plus picks off one or more blue states such as NM and CO.

Trump Wins In Landslide – 10% Probability

For this to happen Trump would need to carry all the swing states plus several of the following: NH, NM, CO, VA and MN. In this scenario, Trump also would win the national popular vote.

Republicans Take Back Senate

At a minimum, the GOP will hold onto all of its current senate seats plus pick up seats in WV and MT for a 51-49 majority. If Republicans win big, they will pick up at least two more seats for a 53 to 47 edge. If Trump wins in a landslide, the GOP will add even more seats in some of the following states OH, NV, PA, MI, WI, MD and AZ for a 55 to 45 senate majority.

House of Representatives – Too Close To Call

Republican control of the House likely depends on how well they defend the seats they won in 2022 in CA and NY. However, if Trump wins big, the GOP will pick off several more seats in light blue districts.

1 Harris will amass a margin of over 6 million votes in CA, NY and IL (combined) over Trump’s margin in TX and FL (combined). This results in a 6 million vote margin for Trump in the other 45 states. Finally, 6 million votes equal 4% of the total vote of 150 million. This math explains why Harris must win the national vote by at least 4 points to win in the Electoral College.

2 This is explained by her likeability problem. She comes across as inauthentic because she cannot articulate her true beliefs – which (outside of California) are political suicide.

3 There can be significant movement in the final few days if undecided voters break in the same direction. This happened in 1980 with Reagan and with Humphrey in 1968. The late surge for Humphrey was palpable and he would have won if the election had been just a few days later.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

The Morality of Capitalism

October 27, 2024November 3, 2024 George Noga

The Morality of Capitalism

Capitalism vs. Socialism: Results, Theory and Morality

George Noga
Oct 27, 2024

Socialists always compare an idealized version of socialism to the practice of capitalism. This is as convoluted as comparing ideal capitalism to real-world socialism. This post presents a comparison between socialism and capitalism: results to results, theory to theory and morality to morality.

Results of Socialism Compared to Results of Capitalism

This is no contest; no one seriously argues socialism produces better results. Socialism never has created sustained prosperity; it can only achieve a brief illusion of prosperity by plundering a nation’s wealth. See my post of May 26, 2024 for more details; it is available on my website www.mllg.us and in Substack archives.

Although socialism may achieve transient benefits, it always ends the same, i.e. starvation amidst plenty. Socialism’s failures are legion: the USSR, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, much of Latin and South America and Africa. There is not one example in history where socialism has worked. But they will get it right next time.

In sharp contrast, capitalism’s successes also are legion; they include, but are not limited to, the USA, Canada, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. In the past 30 years (per the World Bank) capitalism has cut extreme poverty by 90%. Each day 100,000 more people escape poverty thanks to capitalism, the greatest economic and humanitarian success since men lived in trees.

Theory of Socialism Compared to Theory of Capitalism

Under ideal socialism, the governing values are community and equality. Socialists view economic well-being as a common enterprise. People share work according to their abilities and no one demands extra benefits due to greater talent or work. All inequalities due to undeserved advantages or disadvantages are eliminated. In socialists’ utopia all people are economically equal, i.e. equality of outcome.

Ideal capitalism means self-interest and free markets. Some people are more talented, exert more effort or take greater risks; hence, some are wealthier than others. Just as in the socialist utopia however, people care about each other and value community. When someone is in need, neighbors help. All of the good parts of the socialist utopia are present in ideal capitalism, but so are additional benefits such as innovation, job creation and more and better goods and services.

Everyone is better off with capitalism and there is no envy because everyone is unselfish. If one assumes people under socialism are altruistic, then it is only fair to make the same assumption for capitalism. Moreover, markets are not dependent on altruism and function quite well even when comity is in short supply.

Morality of Socialism Compared to Morality of Capitalism

Capitalism is non-coercive cooperation in free markets. People succeed only by providing goods and services valued by their fellow man more than their cost. No transaction ever takes place unless both parties benefit. There is no more potent force on earth than a consumer armed with a free choice. The consumer is sovereign, and even the largest corporation cannot force anyone to buy its products. Capitalism is economic democracy and every penny is a vote.

Following are some of the moral underpinnings of capitalism – an economic system that respects individual rights, promotes liberty and lifts the world out of poverty.

Individual rights: Capitalism is predicated on the belief that it is a fundamental human right for everyone to be free to pursue their own economic interest. Under socialism, big brother decides everything.
Liberty: The freedom provided by capitalism is necessary for humans, both individually and as a society, to flourish. The political corollary of capitalism is liberty, while under socialism it is tyranny.
Meritocracy: Under capitalism, rewards are aligned with ability, work effort and risk. Capitalism is based on the correct understanding of human nature, while socialism is diametrically opposed to human nature.
Voluntary Exchange: All transactions in a capitalist system are based on mutual benefit. Socialism is based on central planning without regard to markets.
Innovation and Efficiency: The incentives of capitalism result in an economy that innovates, creates new jobs and responds to peoples’ needs and wants. This process benefits society as a whole. Compare the socialist (East Germany) Trabant to the capitalist (West Germany) Mercedes-Benz, BMW, VW or Audi.
Morality: Individuals under capitalism are responsible for their own success or failure; under socialism individuals are subordinate to the state.

Capitalism isn’t good because it works; it works because it’s good.

Capitalism is morally superior to socialism and is better in both theory and practice. Capitalism isn’t good because it works; it works because it is good. Socialism always fails because it is based on a deeply flawed understanding of human nature; hence, it never has succeeded and never will. The great mystery is why anyone in 2024 still believes in socialism. Maybe they will get it right the next time.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Government Failure Explained

October 20, 2024November 3, 2024 George Noga

Government Failure Explained

Politicians, voters and bureaucrats all are incentivized to fail

George Noga
Oct 20, 2024

Public choice theory is a branch of economics that studies taxation, public spending and government decision making. Its leading proponents have won Nobel Prizes in Economics. Public choice economics applies the same rigorous logic and analysis to the government that economists use in analyzing the private sector. Although actors in the public space may have some interest in serving the public, they are primarily motivated by self-interest – just as in the private sector.

white concrete building under blue sky during daytime

In the private sector, theoretically correct economic decisions are usually positively correlated with actual behavior. In the public space, there is a gaping chasm between the correct economic decisions and the actual decisions made by politicians, bureaucrats and voters. Public choice economics explains this chasm.

Voters are Incentivized to be Ignorant

Consumers in the private marketplace make well-informed decisions because they are directly impacted. If they make wise choices, they benefit, while they bear the consequences of poor choices. Not so for consumers in the public domain where voting lacks a nexus to outcomes. Most voters are ignorant of the positions of their politicians – apart from those pertaining to a few highly publicized issues. The direct impact of casting a well-informed vote is nil, and voters behave rationally when they act in accordance with their incentive to remain ignorant.

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Politicians are Incentivized to Waste Money

There is no direct benefit to a politician to spend public money wisely; in fact, the incentive is to waste money. Interest groups provide large campaign donations and various other perquisites in exchange for actions that benefit them at the expense of taxpayers. Special interests benefit greatly, while voters are ignorant or harmed only marginally. A good example is sugar subsidies. A small number of sugar producers share $1 billion in subsidies, while it costs consumers only $30 each per year in higher prices – in effect a tax on sugar of which the consumer is ignorant.

Bureaucrats are Captured by Special Interests and Rent Seekers

Bureaucrats have no dog in the hunt. Those with a strong interest in the actions of a government agency will “capture” the agency’s bureaucrats along with politicians who oversee the agency. They frequently accomplish this indirectly via lobbyists. They capture agencies with emoluments and future employment or consulting once the bureaucrat retires or the politician loses reelection. Rent seekers such as public sector unions extract value from government without giving value in return. Moreover, the risks and rewards of government do not attract talented hard-working people.

Reelection Trumps All Other Considerations

The motivation of politicians to win reelection supersedes all else including their duty to voters and to the country to do the right thing. Their personal incentives are grossly misaligned with the public interest.

Politics is extremely short sighted

Politicians’ time horizon extends only as far as the next election. They make taxes as opaque as possible and have a strong bias toward debt financing; this allows them to spend without voting for more taxes. That explains why there have been deficits in 57 of the last 62 years. They enact unfunded promises and immediate benefits while hiding, deferring and borrowing the cost as far into the future as possible.

No Incentive to Cut Losses

In business the culture is quickly to recognize and to cut losses. In government, failed programs develop a constituency – both inside and outside of government – and never are cut. The government culture is to tax, regulate and then subsidize.

Kicking the Can Down the Road

Difficult political decisions are deferred for as long as possible and preferably until politicians are no longer in office. This turns once manageable problems into catastrophes. The poster children for this are Social Security and Medicare. Even worse is the inevitable debt crisis. Politicians are managing an impossible feat: they literally are bankrupting the most prosperous nation in human history.

Government is unalterably contrary to human nature, which is unchanged since the dawn of time. People don’t suddenly become beknighted when they enter politics. Elected officials are not benevolent, dispassionate actors seeking the best possible outcomes for those they govern. They are motivated by self-interest.

Government incentives are pathologically misaligned. Government is awash with waste, fraud, abuse, corruption and unintended consequences – not to mention climate madness, identity politics and DEI wackiness. Public sector economics shows why government failure is systemic, structural, deeply rooted and incapable of reform. There is no way to fix government and it is futile to try.

Government cannot be improved. There is only one way its myriad pathologies can be reduced. That is to drastically shrink its size and scope. Even then, government will be a failure – just a smaller failure. We do not need more government, smarter government or even wiser government; we need less government.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Liberals Live In a Plastic Bubble

October 13, 2024November 3, 2024 George Noga

Liberals Live In a Plastic Bubble

They prefer an ersatz sheltered life to the real world

George Noga
Oct 13, 2024

Tod Lubitch, the boy inside the plastic bubble, was the hero of the 1976 movie of the same name. Tod was born with a malfunctioning immune system and contact with unfiltered air could kill him; hence, he lived in a protective bubble insulated from the outside world. Similarly, liberals have a malfunctioning belief system that can’t handle contact with the truth; hence, they live in intellectually isolated bicoastal enclaves. They live their entire lives without ever coming into contact with a conservative, evangelical Christian, Trump voter or anyone from flyover land.

The liberal bubble covers schools, academia, workplaces, government, pop culture, sports, and religion. It even has its own song, Living in a Bubble, by Eiffel 65.

Living in a bubble baby
A bubble's no reality
You've gotta have a look outside
Nothing in the bubble is the way it is supposed to be
And when it blows, you'll hit the ground

Preschool Through 12 Education

The bubble begins with education. Nascent liberals attend government schools or elite private schools where they are indoctrinated in a statist secular religion. They are taught by progressive unionist teachers from a woke curriculum that includes political correctness, Critical Race Theory, The 1619 project, DEI, gender dysphoria, climate madness and wacko environmentalism. They are taught that the only universal values are that there are no values; everything is relative. There are never winners or losers and, just like in Lake Wobegon, they are all above average.

University and Academia

This is a continuation of the indoctrination from the K-12 curriculum. Students are brainwashed with liberal shibboleths; they experience diversity in every way possible except of ideas. Their professors all are dyed-in-the-wool progressives. Any speakers with different points of view are subject to violent protests and are prevented from speaking. Students are indoctrinated in a collectivist, pro-government, anti-capitalist orthodoxy. They are cloistered in a cocoon of conformity and coddled with trigger warnings, safe rooms, speech codes and playdough. They extend their middle finger to flaunt their disrespect for middle America values, patriotism and religion.

The Workplace

Liberals gravitate toward jobs that reinforce their world view. They choose jobs in government, NGOs, foundations, media and other areas that are not focused on being competitive, satisfying customers or making a profit. They are steeped in DEI rather than meritocracy. Wokism has infected even capitalist workplaces with speech codes, sensitivity training and political correctness.

Government

Liberals cluster in deep blue sanctuary cities and states with one-party rule, often for half a century. Their progressive beliefs support toxic governance characterized by identity politics, high taxes and living costs, forced unionization, massive debt, neglected infrastructure, failed schools, homelessness, open drug use and sidewalks as open sewers. Housing is scarce, dilapidated, rent controlled and evictions banned. Climate madness and environmental religion run amok. People are pitted against one another based on age, gender, race and income. Crime is rampant along with decriminalizing shoplifting, defunding police and eliminating cash bail.

Liberals have come to accept all these horrors as, not only normal but, necessary to achieve equity. They lemming-like vote progressive; there is no other choice.

Pop Culture, Media and Sports

Consuming left-wing media reinforces liberals’ beliefs. Business is portrayed as greedy, price-gouging and preying on hapless victims. Crusading government and journalists are presented as saviors of the planet, exposing the evils of the private sector. Progressives accept that a strong six-foot, five-inch 225 pound biological male competing in women’s sports is not only normal but noble.

Life Inside the Bubble

The combination of schools, academia, the workplace, government and pop culture – along with physical isolation in liberal enclaves – make life inside the bubble comfortable. Once inside the bubble, escape is well-nigh impossible. Nor do the denizens of the bubble realize they are living in a bubble. They don’t know what they don’t know. No one they know or nothing they see or read pierces their cocoon.

On those rare occasions when liberals are confronted with truth, they don’t know how to react. Just like Tod Lubitch, contact with the unfiltered truth could kill their liberal beliefs. Their first reaction is to deny the truth. If that doesn’t work, their next reaction is to call the truth-speaker racist, sexist, homophobic and evil.

Escape From the Bubble

Tod Lubitch finally left his bubble, but few liberals ever do. After all, life inside the bubble is comfortable and venturing into the real world is fraught with risks; things are not so dogmatic and simplistic and thinking is required. Liberals are happy with their life inside the bubble even though in unguarded moments they realize such a life is a lie – because liberalism is a lie. I close with more lyrics from the song. Living in a bubble baby But it’s not the place to be Cause it’s a place with lies and hype Don’t believe the bubble cause it’s nothing but a dream And when it blows you’ll be alone

Living in a bubble baby
But it's not the place to be
Cause it's a place with lies and hype
Don't believe the bubble cause it's nothing but a dream
And when it blows you'll be alone

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024 – 30 Day Update

October 6, 2024October 6, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024 – 30 Day Update

My fearless forecast of where the election stands 30 days out

George Noga
Oct 6, 2024

This is the latest of my Election 2024 posts. Prior posts on this topic were dated December 10, 2023, April 28, 2024 and August 18, 2024. They all are available in the Substack archives and on my website: www.mllg.us. I will reveal my final fearless forecast on November 3rd – just two days before the election.

A young African American woman casting her ballot in 1964

Where the Election Stands Today

There are new polls released almost every day. The most recent Real Clear Politics average has Harris up nationally by a few points, but with momentum trending toward Trump. In 2016, the final polls had Trump losing by 5 or more percentage points, but he outperformed the polls by 3 points. The same was true to a lesser extent in 2020. This leads to my first key takeaways.

Takeaway #1: Trump will outperform national polls by 2 to 3 points.
Takeaway #2: Trump will outperforms swing state polls by 3 to 5 points.

Moreover, there is a chasm between the total (popular) vote and the Electoral College. In 2020 Biden got 81.3 million votes to 74.2 million for Trump – a difference of 7.1 million or 4.6%. Despite this sizeable margin, Biden barely won the Electoral College; a swing of 50,000 total votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin would have reelected Trump. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes or 2.2%, but barely won the Electoral College. A swing of 75,000 total votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would have elected Clinton.

Takeaway #3: Harris must win by at least 2 points (likely more) in the popular vote in order to get a majority in the Electoral College.
Takeaway #4: Combining takeaways #1 and #3, ceteris paribus, Harris must be up between 4 and 5 points nationally to win the Electoral College.

Gulf Between Popular Vote and Electoral College

There is a huge difference between the total vote and the Electoral College. This is easily explained by a few numbers. Large deep blue states like CA and NY pile up gargantuan margins for Dems, while the GOP margins in large deep red states are small. In 2016, Clinton won CA by 4.3 million and NY by 1.8 million, whereas Trump won TX by 0.8 million and FL by 0.1 million. In 2020, Biden won CA by 5.1 million and NY by 1.9 million, while Trump won TX by 0.6 million and FL by 0.4 million.

Takeaway #5: To the extent Trump cuts Harris’ margins in deep blue states, it reduces the margin by which she must win the popular vote. There is basis to believe this is happening; that’s why I added “ceteris paribus” to #4 above.

Fearless Forecast for President

Based on the five takeaways listed supra, if the election were held today, Trump would win because Harris is up only slightly nationally. The Harris campaign knows this and is getting close to panic mode. Further, Trump is running well ahead of where he was 30 days before the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Kamala has a serious likeability problem; the more people know about her and see her, the less they like her. She is a deeply flawed candidate. When she ran for president in 2016, she started by polling 15% but ended up with 1%. She was the first candidate to drop out of the Dem primaries. She can’t be trusted to hold a press conference or even an interview with a serious journalist. I expect Kamala’s support to attrit between now and the election. This leads to my final takeaway.

Takeaway #6: Time is not Kamala’s friend.

If Trump runs a proper campaign and avoids self-inflicted wounds, he should win by a comfortable margin. However, Trump is also a flawed candidate and is showing a lack of focus on the issues and is prone to hyperbole and distraction. I continue to believe 2024 is Trump’s election to lose but also that he is fully capable of losing it.

Fearless Forecast for Senate and House

The senate electoral map in 2024 favors republicans. I expect the GOP to hold all its existing Senate seats and to pick up seats in WV (a near certainty) and MT (highly likely). This would flip the Senate to 51 Republican and 49 Democrat. Moreover, if Trump wins decisively, I look for the GOP to pick up one or more seats in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada resulting in a larger Republican majority.

The House is too close to call. Control likely depends on whether or not the GOP can hang onto the seats in CA and NY it picked up in 2022.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

The Suicide of America II

September 29, 2024October 6, 2024 George Noga

The Suicide of America II

Collapse is not inevitable; it is a choice

George Noga
Sep 29, 2024

This is the second and final part of “The Suicide of America”. Part one was last week; you can find it on my website www.mllg.us and also in the Substack archives.

The United States of America is committing suicide. It is little solace that much of western civilization is doing the same. America’s suicide is by (1) climate madness; (2) spending and debt; (3) geopolitical weakness; and (4) toxic politics.

The reason I write this blog is a cri de coeur for America and to do my part, however small, to try to prevent the suicide of our beloved republic. I am reminded of the words of Whitaker Chambers.

“It is idle to talk about preventing the wreck of western civilization. It already is a wreck from within. That is why we can do little more than snatch a handful of ashes from the faggots and bury them for the day, ages hence, when a few men may begin again to dare to believe there once was something else and the fortifying knowledge there were those who, at the great nightfall, took loving pains to preserve the tokens of hope and faith.”

Suicide By Climate Madness

I have written extensively about climate change; my most recent post was January 28, 2024 entitled Twelve Inconvenient Truths; you can read it on my website www.mllg.us or in my Substack archives. It was one of my most read posts of all time.

We are spending trillions of dollars on empty, feel-good boondoggles which, even if successful, will lower temperature infinitesimally many decades in the future. We are committing suicide in the name of climate change, while doing absolutely nothing about climate change. Moreover, the trillions being wasted are a major contributor to our suicide by debt and also to our suicide by geopolitical weakness.

“We are committing suicide in the name of climate change, while doing absolutely nothing about climate change.”

To cap off the climate madness, the global population collapse, now well under way, will reduce CO2 below today’s level within a century – and all without spending a nickel. Please see my post of May 19, 2024 entitled The Depopulation Bomb.

Suicide By Spending and Debt

I also have written extensively about the crisis of spending and debt – the most recent post was dated May 5, 2024 and is available on my website and Substack. America is like the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. Things seemed normal for a while but its fate was sealed. The USA has already hit the debt iceberg.

The debt crisis also exacerbates our suicide by geopolitical weakness. We need to ramp up defense spending to 5% of GDP but are unable (and unwilling) because of the already obscene level of debt. America’s suicide by toxic politics also contributes to our weakness by infecting the military with DEI. Because of the emphasis on wokeness, we are unable to recruit enough soldiers and some of the soldiers we now have are unable to perform up to standard due to DEI compliance.

Suicide By Geopolitical Weakness

America faces a constellation of geopolitical threats, including Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. China is poised to take Taiwan; Russia will not stop at Ukraine and the ayatollahs in Iran have enough fissile material for at least three atomic bombs with more on the way. North Korea is waiting for the right opportunity to invade the South. Even more menacingly, our enemies have formed an entente. Our worst nightmare would be if they all acted together.

Last year the US military fell 41,000 short of its enlisted recruiting goal – and that was after the goal had been lowered due to prior recruiting problems. Wokeness and DEI changed the culture of the military so that it no longer appeals to its traditional source of recruits. Families with a tradition of military service are discouraging the current generation from joining the armed forces. How does this end, a smaller military or reinstating the draft and unleashing protests on college campuses?

The bottom line is we need to spend more – much more – on defense, but we can’t because of the toxic level of debt, wokeness and lack of national will.

Suicide By Toxic Politics

Our politics have become radioactive and are starting to mirror that of banana republics. We are trying to bankrupt and jail political opponents on manufactured charges. We have different standards for people depending on their politics. In much of America it is impossible to get an untainted jury pool. Polls show most Americans no longer believe there is equal justice under law.

Our toxic politics are a large part of of the reason we are unable to deal with matters critical to the survival of our republic such as illegal immigration, defense spending, military recruitment, imminent bankruptcy from spending and debt and the collapse of Social Security and Medicare as now constituted.

Suicide of the United States of America

A civilization can commit hari-kari but once. Rather than one instrument of suicide, America’s likely will result from a combination of pathogens: (1) climate madness; (2) debt default; (3) geopolitical defeat; and (4) toxic politics. I take no satisfaction being a Cassandra; but her warnings, which were ignored, all were true.

Although my reason for writing this blog is to prevent the suicide of America, I have a secondary motive. If America commits suicide, I want our children and our children’s children to know there once was a shining city on a hill lighted by the fire of liberty and there were some of us who preserved the embers of that fire until some future day when the embers could be used to reignite the torch of liberty.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

The Suicide of America

September 22, 2024October 6, 2024 George Noga

The Suicide of America

“Civilizations die from suicide and not murder.”

George Noga
Sep 22, 2024

This is the first of two parts. This part explains how the collapse of civilizations applies to America in 2024. Part two, posted next week, explains how the USA is committing suicide by climate madness, suffocating debt, toxic politics and geopolitical weakness.

The above quote is from historian Arnold Toynbee who explored the rise and fall of civilizations. His tome, “A Study of History”, determined civilizations usually collapse from internal failure rather than external conquest. The most notable internal collapse is the Roman Empire; others include the Mayan Civilization, Indus Valley, Anasazi of the American southwest and the Khmer at Angkor Wat.

a large gray suitcase sitting on top of a wooden stand

Toynbee posited that civilizations decline when they fail to effectively respond to challenges – usually due to internal failures stemming from a loss of moral and cultural vitality. Toynbee identified four key causes of civilization collapse.

1. Moral Decay

When the cultural and moral values that once unified and motivated a civilization deteriorate, the society loses its sense of purpose and direction. America ascended in no small part due to widely shared moral and religious beliefs and values. Today everything is relative; there is no agreement about right and wrong. We can’t even define what a women is and we place tampons in boys’ restrooms.

2. Leadership Failure

Dynamic leaders initially drive a civilization’s growth. Over time, leaders become venal and corrupt. There is no better example than Roman emperors Caligula, Nero and Tiberius. America today is marked by venal, corrupt and inept leaders.

America’s current president is physically and cognitively a mess; he is a serial plagiarist and has engaged in influence peddling, money laundering and bribery. Our current vice president, and nominee for president, is a socialist who is an equity hire who got ahead the old fashioned way. Her choice for VP is also a socialist and has lied about his past. Neither has worked a single day in the private sector.

3. Social Fragmentation

As the elite become more detached from the general population, social cohesion breaks down leading to fragmentation. America in 2024 already is there. Bicoastal elites matriculate in different schools and school their children differently. They work in different jobs, eschew religion and have different politics and culture. The elites don’t watch the same movies or TV shows, read the same books, dine at the same restaurants, drive the same cars or vacation in the same places.

Elites don’t even look the same due to different notions about diet, exercise, piercings, tattoos, dress and cosmetic surgery. Their language, speech and grammar differ. They avoid the military and police; they disdain hunting, fishing and firearms. They reside in different cities, but share the same continent with culturally opposed groups. They intermarry and have children who are even more elite. We now have third generation elites who know little of the people in flyover land. Most elites don’t know one evangelical Christian or someone without a college degree.

4. Economic and Political Stagnation

Without effective leadership and moral clarity, economic and political systems fail to address new challenges and crises. Nothing illustrates this better than the current US spending and debt crisis. At bottom, this is a moral crisis because we deliberately chose to take from our children and grandchildren rather than to control our own spending. To make matters worse, the money we stole was not put to good use. Instead of borrowing to save our nation from calamity, we stole to fund a perpetual bacchanal. We have bankrupted the most prosperous nation in history.

Suicide is a Choice

Many civilizations have survived for a very long time such as Japan, Tonga and New Guinea. Therefore, collapse – or suicide – is not inevitable. Rather, suicide is the result of the choices we make. The four key causes of civilization collapse identified by Toynbee all are present in America today and are growing more pernicious. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that America is choosing suicide.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com