Transgender Marxism

March 31, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Transgender Marxism

Progressives’ next target: pedophilia

GEORGE NOGA
March 31, 2024

A transgender went shopping and xe bought apples for xerself; xe ate xyrs apples for xem lunch. A pangender, shopping in the same store, bought oranges for themselves. A gender fluid shopper, ve bought plums for perself; sie ate ver plums for vis lunch. The preceding are all approved uses of gender pronouns. There are now 107 recognized genders – each presumably with its own set of personal pronouns.

I am taking a spring break for the month of April. Regular posts will resume May 5th.

Before transgenderism became a cause celebre, it was generally understood that 99.94% of people were cisgender, meaning the trans population is a miniscule .06%. Thus, the true trans population of the USA is about 19,200 and could fit comfortably inside most NBA arenas. How has an issue affecting such an infinitesimal part of the population come to dominate America’s culture and politics?

Marxists Hijack Trans Movement

After the fall of the USSR, Marxists were homeless. Collectivism, in light of the ignominious collapse of the Soviet Union, was discredited and toxic. However, Marxists were not chastened and continued to guzzle the commie cool-aide.

First, they took over the environmental movement and later the climate change movement. Now, they have hijacked the trans movement. But their focus and goals remain unchanged, i.e. to destroy western civilization and impose collectivism.

Marxists believe gender is a social construct and a false binary that underpins a white male heterosexual power structure which must be deconstructed. They see the trans movement as a bridge to communism in our time – a new communist way of relating to one another. In her book, Transgender Marxism, trans activist Rosa Lee argues:

“Trans people can serve as the new vanguard of the proletariat, promising to abolish heteronormativity in the same way orthodox Marxism promised to abolish capitalism.”

Perspectives About the Trans Movement

Following are some thoughts about the transgender movement.

Transgenders, who are part of the .06%, deserve our support. They also are victims, as what should be a medical issue has become hyperpolitical.
Progressives, Marxists and their media lapdogs have hijacked the trans movement to achieve their unrelated goals – which are so noxious they must be masked.
The vast majority of youths (70%) who claim to be trans really are homosexual.
Those who make a fuss over pronouns enjoy calling attention to themselves and making others feel uncomfortable. They really don’t care about the pronouns.
Activist teachers and health care workers propagandize by using the euphemistic gender affirming care, just as abortion is described as choice.
Follow the money. Gender surgery has become highly profitable. What has become of the physicians’ oath to “first, do no harm”?
If people can change their gender identity, why not their disability status, age, race, ethnicity, income cohort or any other aspect of their identity?

Children and Transgenderism

One day, sooner rather than later, the surgical and chemical mutilation of children as young as 10 will come to be seen with horror. We as a society will grapple with understanding why and how we came to tolerate such atrocities. Children are easily confused and influenced – recall how children were manipulated during the day care abuse hoaxes. This has become a red state, blue state issue. At fashionable California dinner parties, at least one of the attendees is likely to have a child in transition.

Next Target: Pedophilia

Transgenderism moved rapidly from the fringes of society to the epicenter after it was hijacked by twenty-first century Marxists. The media jumped on the bandwagon and soon the money flooded in. Eventually, all the usual suspects came on board and, voila, the trans movement became a wedge political and cultural issue.

The Marxist playbook that has worked for the environmental, climate change and transgender movements can be made to work for other issues as well. Issues, currently on the fringe of society, that are likely to be catapulted onto center stage within the next five years are pedophilia followed by plural marriage.

However, next on progressives’ radar screens is pedophilia. They euphemistically relabel pedophiles as minor-attracted persons. They won’t attempt to remove the age of consent all at once. They already are advocating lowering it to 16 . That soon will be followed by a push to lower it to 14 and then to 12 before abolishing it entirely.

If you think this can’t happen, the age of consent in some US states already is 13 and 14 (with restrictions); many states are at age 16 with no restrictions. Germany and many South American countries are at age 14 with no restrictions. Africa has one country at age 12 without restrictions. Muslim nations have no predetermined minimum age of consent for sex or marriage; it is based on custom.

If you believe pedophilia could never become legal in the USA, think again. If one believes it is okay for children as young as ten to be chemically and surgically castrated and to have their genitals irreversibly mutilated, it dosen’t seem like a big stretch to argue that these same kids should have the right to choice about sex. If this seems far-fetched to you, so did transgenderism a scant five years ago.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Is Government Evil?

March 24, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Is Government Evil?

Government horrors in my lifetime

GEORGE NOGA
March 24, 2024

Previously, I referred to government as a malevolent force; now I call it evil. It is however a necessary evil because it’s better than the alternative, which is anarchy. Since government is an evil force, we should have as little of it as possible, only enough to protect us from foreign and domestic violence and to preserve our liberty.

a field full of white crosses in the grass

Some readers have questioned my use of the term evil. Following is my lifetime of experiences with government. You judge if they qualify as evil.

I was born while my father was fighting in WWII; he also fought in Korea. Both wars (as well as WWI) resulted from government ineptitude. American WWII casualties were 407,000 killed and 671,000 wounded. Worldwide 60 million died, all preventable. My father was away at war during half of my first 10 years.
For 12 years I was the victim of an execrable education in wretched government schools. Any learning that took place was purely incidental.
I have been subject to a mind-numbing array of taxes, including at one time an income tax with a 94% bracket. Government at all levels takes 40% in taxes.
Government mismanagement of the economy unleashed numerous economic cycles, bubbles, busts, panics and meltdowns. The Federal Reserve once jacked up interest rates to over 20% to fix the 15% inflation it caused.
It costs $20,000 to buy what cost $1,000 when I was born: inflation of 2,000%.
The government-promulgated disaster that was the Vietnam War discombobulated my life and required me to serve in the armed forces.
I owned a highly regulated business for 35 years and was subject to a Kafkaesque wasteland of arcane and conflicting government regulations that helped no one.
Out of control government spending, debt and deficits will result in the greatest economic and social disaster in US history. Incredibly, government has managed to bankrupt the most prosperous nation in the history of this planet.
I only narrowly escaped the Obamacare death panels, but am still at risk for rationing and denial of care under a future single payer system.

Government has bankrupted the most prosperous nation in the history of Earth.

Private Sector Advances

Let’s contrast the above government horrors with the progress made by the private sector over the same time horizon.

Medical and dental treatment has improved immeasurably. When I was young there was little doctors could do except palliative care. President Coolidge’s son got a blister playing tennis; it became infected and he died within a week. There was nothing doctors could do. Going to the dentist was to be feared.
The progress in pharmaceuticals has been breathtaking. Most diseases are curable and gene therapy is a reality.
Computers did not exist in 1943. Today’s smartphones contain thousands of times the computing power used on lunar missions – and at ridiculously low prices.
Consumer electronics have made amazing progress. When I was young, there were only 3 channels of TV on a 9-inch screen with fuzzy reception and broadcasting limited hours. Today many hundreds of channels are available in high definition with over 125,000 movies available on demand 24/7.
We have advanced from propeller planes to walking on the moon .
The quality of all goods – particularly cars – has improved. Food now is but a small part of most family budgets. The cost of most goods in real terms has plummeted.
Capitalism has eliminated poverty, hunger and homelessness except for those with untreated mental illness. See my 2/18/24 post on my website: www.mllg.us.

Government Versus Markets

During my lifetime, government has brought mostly grief and failure, whereas free market capitalism has produced miracles. Government is not based on markets; it is top-down, highly coercive and ignores consumer preferences. It is antithetical to human nature. Waste, fraud, abuse and corruption are endemic. Government failure is systemic, structural, ingrained and incapable of reform.

Free market capitalism succeeds because it properly aligns personal rewards, risks and incentives with the goals of the business; it is in sync with (not opposed to) human nature. There also are immediate and consequential personal costs of failure. Capitalism attracts those who are hard working and receptive to risk, whereas government attracts those who are risk averse and value security over opportunity.

Is Government Evil?

Dictionaries define evil as: (1) something that brings sorrow, distress or calamity; (2) suffering, misfortune and wrongdoing; (3) wicked or dishonorable; (4) capable of harm and (5) having undesirable or negative qualities.

Government comports squarely with the above definition. The drafters of our Constitution understood government was capable of great harm; that’s why they created a republic with separation of powers and numerous checks and balances. However, as I wrote at the beginning of this post, you may judge for yourself.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Taxation in Biden’s America

March 17, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Taxation in Biden’s America

Do the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share?

GEORGE NOGA
March 17, 2024

President Biden’s State of the Union (SOTU) screed demagogued corporations and the wealthy, alleging they do not pay their fair share of taxes. He repeated his ersatz claim that no one with income under $400,000 would pay a penny more in taxes. This post lays waste to these and other Biden assertions, whose only aim is to divide Americans by income and to engage in unrestricted class warfare based on disinformation.

person holding paper near pen and calculator — Paying Income Tax

Do the Wealthy Pay Their Fair Share?

The top 1% of earners paid 42.3% of all federal income taxes¹ which is the highest in 20 years. That same 1% reported 22.2% of income (AGI) which means that cohort paid roughly double its share of income in taxes. The wealthy’s share of taxes was even higher because AGI excludes income from 88 government programs for low-income Americans, refundable tax credits and debit cards loaded with food stamp benefits.

The top 5% of earners reported 38% of AGI, but paid 63% of all income tax.² The lowest 50% of earners reported 10.2% of AGI and paid 2.3% of all income tax. When adjusting for credits such as the EITC, the bottom 60% paid only about 1% of all federal income tax. The top 1% paid an average tax rate of 26%, while the bottom 50% paid an average rate of 3%. To put a finer point on it, the wealthy in the US pay a far higher share of taxes than in Sweden and in every other developed nation.

As progressive as are federal taxes, deep blue states are even worse. In California and New York, the top 1% of earners pays 40% of all taxes. As high earners decamp California for friendlier climes, it has caused a budget deficit of $70 billion.

Tax Increases for Under $400,000 Income

Several of Biden’s tax increases directly raised taxes on low-income Americans; the increase in cigarette taxes comes immediately to mind. However, tobacco taxes are penny ante. The killer tax increase on low-income and middle-income Americans is inflation. And yes, inflation is a tax – just like any other tax. Economists of all stripes consider inflation to be a tax. Biden’s inflation, caused by blowout spending, costs families earning under $400,000 a whopping $7,000 per year in inflation tax.

Biden’s inflation has raised mortgage rates to multi-decade highs and added around $700 per month to new mortgages and to variable rate mortgages. Home ownership for first time buyers is nigh impossible. The rate on credit card debt (now at an all time high) has gone up 6 percentage points, or 30%. All these Biden-created inflation costs lay waste the budgets of Americans earning below $400,000.

Do Corporations Pay Their Fair Share?

It bears repeating that corporations do not pay taxes – only people pay taxes. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we could magically impose taxes that no human had to pay? Studies have shown that 96% of all corporate income taxes are passed along to consumers as price increases. Thus, if Biden and his progressive cool-aid drinkers raise corporate taxes, the real burden will fall on low and middle income Americans.

In his SOTU speech, Biden resurrected his stale canard that some big corporations pay no income tax. The poster child for this is Amazon, which in some recent years paid no corporate income tax because in prior years it suffered humongous losses which, pursuant to law, Amazon was able to carry forward to offset income in subsequent years. Another case in point is FedEx, which owed no income tax due solely to lawful depreciation on its large fleet of new aircraft. However, both Amazon and FedEx paid billions each year in payroll, state and local taxes.

Warren Buffet and His secretary

Biden’s SOTU also repeated another red herring, i.e. some billionaires pay tax at a lower rate than their secretaries. This assertion made quite a stir in 2012 when Warren Buffet said he paid tax at a lower tax rate than his secretary, Debbie Bosanke. Indeed, it is possible that Buffet (or anyone) with income only from capital gains could pay a lower rate than someone with only ordinary income. However, that is only one of many parts of taxation and far from the whole story. Before anyone realizes capital gains, he/she must first pay income tax and then invest with after tax funds.

I computed the total taxes over the entire cycle on this tranche of income (including ordinary, dividends, corporate, capital gains and estate) and determined that Buffet would have paid overall taxes of 70% to 80% – far, far higher than Ms. Bosanke.

Raising the Minimum Wage

To complete Biden’s SOTU circle of disingenuity, he trotted out the minimum wage. Markets determine wages, not governments. However, far from helping those most in need, raising the minimum wage actually hurts them by putting the poor, young, minorities and low-skilled out of work. The minimum wage affects less than 1% of all workers and for only 6 months or less. Most earning minimum wage are not poor; they have household income over $60,000 and consist of spouses and teens living at home.

Taxation in Biden’s America

After a half century on the public payroll, Biden must be conversant with the facts reported in this post. If he isn’t, it is ignorance on an unimaginable scale. If he does know the facts, it can only mean he chooses to ignore them to incite class warfare. Either way, it is condemnable. To cap it off, Biden really does not want to soak the rich, i.e. his biggest donor base; he merely wants the appearance of doing so.

1 Based on official IRS data for 2020 – the most recent year for which data are available.

2 Tax Foundation data as reported in The Wall Street Journal.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Nothing Is Written

March 10, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Nothing Is Written

“God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America”

GEORGE NOGA
March 10, 2024

The above quote from Otto von Bismarck rings true. Throughout our history the USA has been lucky. Our good fortune began with the success of the American Revolution. There are at least thirteen events¹ that, if had they turned out differently, would have led to defeat and to George Washington likely being hanged.

The early history of Western civilization is replete with close encounters² that shaped our lives, often by pure chance and blind luck. Following are but a few of them.

Had Atilla not died young in 453, you would be reading this in Hungarian.
If the outmanned French would have lost the battle of Poitiers in 732 to the Arabs, we all would be speaking Arabic today.
In 1242 the Mongols were within a hair’s breadth of conquering Europe when King Ogadi (son of Genghis Khan) died suddenly prompting the Mongols to turn around. Europe was saved by blind luck so we are not speaking Mongolian.

There also have been numerous what ifs just in the past century. If not for pure chance and a roll of the dice, we could be much better off or worse off today.

If Archduke Ferdinand had survived his assassination on June 28, 1914, World War I would not have happened.³ Absent the utter slaughter and horror of that war, the West would not have lost faith in itself, its culture and its religion. There would have been no Lenin, Stalin or Hitler – and no holocaust.

World War II is pregnant with what ifs. What if Hitler had not inexplicably paused his armies near Dunkirk and instead wiped out the entire English army? What if he would not have invaded Russia? What if he would have committed his air force to destroy the RAF instead of bombing cities? What if Halifax instead of Churchill became prime minister? What if the Enigma code was not broken? What if all the American carriers were in Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941?

Events are Chaotic and Random

Nothing about our lives in twenty-first century America is preordained. There are many forces in play and the myriad possible interactions are so complex that even infinitesimal variations can alter events and unleash powerful and unanticipated forces. Moreover, history is not necessarily directed toward a more prosperous and peaceful world. There are countless possibilities, most of which never materialize.

We humans tend to vastly overweight recent events and to believe things had to turn out the way they did. Americans in particular suffer from this affliction because America has been blessed with good fortune during most of its existence – thus, Bismarck’s statement “God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America”.

Human nature is unchanged since we lived in trees; it is part animal spirits and part rational, with the rational, usually but not always, having a tenuous grip over the passionate. Nothing is preordained; nothing is written. It is not written that America will continue to be peaceful and prosperous. It is not written that good will triumph over evil. Fukuyama’s long arc of history may bend in the right direction, but there is ample room for terror and slaughter along the way.

Future History of America

As noted supra, history is chaotic, unpredictable and often hinges on pure chance. There are unknowns and unknowables; animal spirits sometimes trump logic. Following are some possible future scenarios and their possible outcomes.

A spending crisis is a certainty, but how will it end? Will America default on its debt or print money leading to hyperinflation? Will America be too broke to defend its interests and values as bad actors come to dominate the world?
What will happen with China? Will its empire break apart; will there be a democratic revolution; or will it become a global hegemon – occupying Taiwan and imposing its will throughout the Pacific and cowing the United States?
What happens after Iran gets atomic weapons? Will it destroy Israel and Saudi Arabia or will its people rise up and replace the present theocratic regime?
What will become of America? Will it become a post-constitutional state where progressives rig the electoral system to eliminate opposition? Or will America again become a land of liberty with equal justice under law?
How does Ukraine end? Will Putin win and go on to threaten Moldova and the Baltic states? Will NATO be dragged into war or succumb to nuclear blackmail?
What if China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua formed an alliance and attacked simultaneously around the world?
What will happen to civilization on this orb? Will we be able to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle or will we destroy everything and return to the stone age? Or will we come to our senses and usher in a golden age for humanity?
What unforeseen or unforeseeable threats or opportunities may arise?

Nothing is written.

Unlikely Victory by Thomas Fleming
What If edited by Robert Cowley
The World We Lost on June 28, 1914 by Gary North

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

State of the Union 2024

March 3, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

State of the Union 2024

This is my state of the union address

GEORGE NOGA
March 3, 2024

My fellow Americans:

The state of our union is precarious. Unless we take immediate and drastic actions, that heretofore would have been considered unthinkable, to slash spending and cut the deficit, we face an imminent crisis equal to, or likely worse than, the Great Depression. We also face a constellation of geopolitical threats from China, Russia and Iran. Moreover, we must meet these threats when America’s internal divisions seem irreconcilable. But we are out of time and our survival requires bold action.

Our most serious and certain crisis is our spending and debt which has reached a tipping point. We must immediately reduce our annual deficit by $1 trillion. To accomplish this I am appointing a select committee comprised of political leaders from both parties and other prominent Americans. They will have 100 days to propose immediate spending cuts of $750 billion – equal to 18% of all spending except for defense and interest on the debt. The committee also must propose new taxes of $250 billion. Congress then will be required to have a straight (up or down) vote without any amendments on the committee’s plan.

Nothing, other than defense and interest on the debt, is off the table including Social Security and Medicare. Also, I am freezing new hiring of government employees combined with an immediate 15% reduction in headcount – excluding the military.

Concerning geopolitical threats, we will follow John Quincy Adams’ admonition that “America is a friend of liberty everywhere, but custodian only of our own.” We will also observe George Washington’s advice that “The best way to keep the peace is to be prepared for war.” We will support our allies in Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, but they must carry the burden of fighting. If Americans are attacked or taken hostage, we will respond with immediate and overwhelming (not proportional) force. We will maintain our military at such a high level as to deter any possible adversary.

Since the dawn of human history, governments have been instituted among men primarily for protection from violence – both domestic and foreign. America has failed miserably in protecting its citizens from domestic crime. I will take every legal action to stop crime, especially crime involving violence or the threat of violence. Anyone committing violence will be removed from society for at least a period of years. Anyone guilty of a second crime of violence will be removed for a lengthy term.

I will enforce all our laws as required by the Constitution. This means our borders are closed and all illegal immigration will end. I will construct a wall on our southern border and deport those here illegally.

In addition, I will take the following actions.

The Federal Reserve will have but one mission, to maintain sound money.
I will eliminate all tariffs and trade barriers, unilaterally if necessary.
We will become net energy exporters, end the war on fossil fuels and withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords – while continuing research on alternative fuels.
I will support universal school choice, the civil rights issue of our time.
I will work to privatize Social Security such that everyone owns their account.
All regulations automatically will sunset every ten years and any rule promulgated by the deep state with an impact over $25 million must be ratified by Congress.

I close my address by returning to first principles. Governments are instituted among men to protect their rights including to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Indeed, this is the only legitimate role for government.

Experience has shown that the sanctioned use of force, i.e. government is necessary to secure our rights. Government therefore is a necessary, albeit dangerous, force that always must be circumscribed, controlled and used sparingly. Government is inherently coercive; it is not about reason, logic or persuasion. It is about brute force. If citizens run afoul of a government diktat, ultimately men with guns will come to take away their property, their liberty and even their lives.

I hereby renew my promise to strictly confine government to its constitutional box and to return America to a nation of free people, free trade and free markets.

Good night. May God bless you, your family and these United States of America.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

The “Root” Cause of Poverty

February 25, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

The “Root” Cause of Poverty

America has spent $25 trillion in its war against poverty

GEORGE NOGA
FEB 25, 2024

This is a companion post to my offering of last week declaring victory in America’s war against poverty. If you missed that post, it is available on Substack and on my website: www.mllg.us. The above headline notwithstanding, poverty has no root cause; it is the natural condition of mankind. We begin in paleolithic times.

The Natural Condition of Mankind

At the dawn of civilization our ancestors subsisted as hunters-fishers-gatherers. There was no economy per se. People were divided into small families or clans, each of which functioned as a putative economic unit. They coexisted with other such units, mostly peaceably, sometimes not. Their lives, short and brutish, were on a bare subsistence level – wholly dependent on the fickle bounty of the sea, the exigencies of the hunt and the caprice of nature.

What economic lessons can we sophists of the twenty-first century glean from such primitive people? What, if anything, can they teach us? Surprisingly, they teach us an ineffaceable economic truth applicable across all time and space, i.e. the natural and normal condition of mankind is poverty. There is no known instance where any aboriginal population existed in any state other than poverty.

Most people understand the natural condition of man is poverty, but fail to grasp its implications. Progressives prattle about the root causes of poverty and even have declared war against it. America has spent $25 trillion since it declared war on poverty in 1964. In 60 years of that war, poverty has not been reduced one whit.

Those who consternate about the causes of poverty are wasting their time. They are asking the wrong question. The question we should be asking is: what causes wealth and how can we bring it about. Wealth is not a natural condition of mankind and is rare throughout the sweep of human history. Wealth creation must be understood and fostered. It is only by understanding wealth that poverty can be alleviated.

Progressives assert that, for example, lack of education creates poverty. This is a posteriori reasoning. People are born uneducated. To create wealth they need to become educated. Education creates wealth; ignorance does not create poverty.

What Causes Wealth?

Harken back to our paleolithic fishermen ancestors. They struggled to spear enough fish to survive, until a nascent capitalist thought of a net. Since capital did not yet exist anywhere to finance the construction of this fisherman’s net, he had no choice but to create his own. He worked every waking hour for months accumulating enough extra fish (his capital) to allow him the time to construct his net.

The net worked as planned and our budding capitalist now generated a surplus of fish to trade for other goods – in the process giving birth to the division of labor. His capital investment made him wealthier than the others in his clan – but it also made everyone else better off. He now generated capital which could be used by other entrepreneurs in his clan to increase the prosperity and well being of everyone.

Capitalism Creates Prosperity and Eliminates Poverty

What worked for our capitalist paleolithic fisherman is the same thing that worked for the capitalists who founded Wal-Mart, Amazon, Tesla, Apple and Microsoft. They have become immensely wealthy, but in the process they have enriched all our lives and increased our productivity. Not one of these successes was created by government or socialism. Who has done more to benefit the common man – Henry Ford, Steve Jobs and Sam Walton – or any king, president or commissar?

Capitalism has created a cornucopia of wealth unprecedented in human history. Extreme poverty worldwide is nearly eliminated and every metric of human well being is improving. Average folks live better than monarchs a few decades ago. Luxuries a short time ago are selling for ridiculously cheap prices at Wal-Mart and Costco.

To continue to improve the lives of everyone and to end poverty, we must shed our shibboleths. Unlike our stone age ancestors, we do not blame poverty on deities, animal spirits or the position of stars. Today, progressives and the media blame poverty on bogeymen like greed, multi-national corporations, western civilization, capitalism, fossil fuels, racism, free trade and lack of diversity, equity and inclusion.

In the twenty-first century we understand how to create wealth and eliminate poverty, but we fail to do so because of obeisance to the false gods of progressivism.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Victory in the War Against Poverty

February 18, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Victory in the War Against Poverty

There is no poverty per se in America

GEORGE NOGA
FEB 18, 2024

According to official US Census Bureau statistics compiled in 2023 (based on 2022 data), the poverty rate¹ is 12.4% resulting in 38 million Americans in poverty. This means the US has one of the highest poverty rates and child poverty rates of any developed country, with more people living in poverty than Indonesia and a higher poverty rate than Europe. This simply doesn’t pass the smell test.

man in black jacket and black pants sitting on white snow covered ground during daytime

As demonstrated herein, there is virtually no poverty in America. The true poverty rate is between 2.5% and 3.5% and consists almost entirely of people with severe cognitive challenges. The real problem is not poverty per se, but social dysfunction resulting from low IQ which then leads to poverty – more about this infra.

Following are some of the most egregious flaws in the official measure of poverty.

Excludes income from 88 government programs for low-income Americans
Fails to include refundable tax credits including the EITC
Debit cards loaded with food stamp benefits not counted as income
Based on spending² rather than income, only 2.5% are below the poverty line
No income from the underground (cash) economy is included
42% of poor households own homes with an average of 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, a garage and a patio or deck; 80% have air conditioning³
Poverty is defined in relative terms; it rises along with median income
70% of the those below the poverty line report they suffer no material hardships and can meet all their essential needs for food, shelter, clothing and health care

The True Poverty Rate

As reported supra, when based on spending, the poverty rate falls to 2.5%. A BLS⁴ study based on spending (excluding only taxes) found that the poorest quintile of Americans spends only about $1,200 per year less than the second lowest quintile and only $3,000 less than the middle quintile. The richest quintile spends only double that of the poorest quintile. How’s that for equality?

Based on a 2022 population of 320 million, 2.5% is equal to 8.0 million people in poverty, while 3.5% equals 11.2 million people. The Census Bureau reports 38 million in poverty, but when we exclude the 70% who self report no hardship, we get 11.4 million or 3.6% below the poverty threshold. In yet another independent confirmation, a recent Wall Street Journal article pegged the true poverty rate at 2.5%.⁵ Based on all the prior data, the true US poverty rate is between 2.5% and 3.5%. It would approach zero percent if those with the most severe cognitive challenges were excluded.

No Poverty Per Se in America

In any normal population distribution, 2.5% have an IQ of 70 or below, i.e. they struggle to fill out a simple form. Not uncoincidentally, these are the very same people who fall below the poverty line, as low cognitive ability is associated with a myriad of social pathologies. If you looked at a Venn diagram, the two circles (those in poverty and those with low “G”, or general intelligence) would nearly completely overlap. These people deserve our compassion and assistance. We do not help them with political correctness and by ignoring the true cause of their predicament.

The conclusion is straightforward. The number of Americans in poverty is nearly precisely equal to the number with extremely low ”G”. They are one and the same. Therefore, poverty per se in America is incredibly rare and borders on non-existent. America can declare victory in its 60-year war against poverty.

The war on poverty is being waged against the wrong enemy. Public policy solutions must be redirected at the pathologies associated with low “G” and away from providing economic benefits. We need to tailor solutions focused on low ability and untreated mental illness. Poverty is a sociological, not an economic, problem.

Is America More Poverty Stricken Than Haiti?

Relative poverty is a metric used by international organizations to measure poverty; it defines poverty as less than 50% of median income. According to this convoluted statistic, a country that is uniformly and utterly destitute has less poverty than America. Where everyone is dirt poor, no one is relatively poor. According to relative poverty calculations, a much higher percentage of Americans are poor than in Haiti, Chad, Congo and Cuba. I can’t make this stuff up.

The Census Bureau reports two different measures of poverty. The official measure, in existence since the 1960s, is 11.5%, and the supplemental measure first published in 2011 is 12.4%.
The Census Bureau reports those in poverty spend two dollars for every dollar of reported income.
This is larger than the average home of middle income families in France, Germany and the UK.
Taken from a study by the BLS, or the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Wall Street Journal op-ed by John Early, former Assistant Commissioner of the BLS and Phil Gramm, former Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Twelve Inconvenient Truths

February 11, 2024February 11, 2024 George Noga

Twelve Inconvenient Truths

Top 12 Truths about Climate Change

GEORGE NOGA

Feb 11, 2024

Climate change is one of my signature issues; I have written about it more than any other topic. Recently, I updated my prior work and ranked the inconvenient (for climate alarmists) truths in ascending order, with #1 being the most profound.

polar bear on snow covered ground during daytime

#12 Polar Bears are Thriving

Far from being threatened, polar bears are thriving. Climate alarmists predicted 67% of them would disappear due to warming. Instead, the polar bear population is now over 30,000, up 600% from the 1950s and up 400% from 1960-1980 period.

#11 Voters are Balking

Voters in Europe and the US are pumping the brakes on climate spending and mandates which have doubled their energy bills and degraded their quality of life with no measurable climate benefit. EVs are stacking up on dealer lots in the US. The political consensus necessary for climate spending and mandates is evaporating.

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#10 There is No Existential Threat

There is not now and there never was an existential threat from climate change. Neither the UN-IPCC nor any other recognized authority has ever asserted the threat from warming rises to the level of being existential. The worst possible outcome for humanity does not come even close to threatening mankind’s existence.

#9 Population Collapse Will Solve the Problem

The global population collapse, already underway, will lower CO2 emissions below today’s level and realize climate alarmists’ fondest dreams and without spending any money. Population in 100 years will be less and collapsing rapidly. World population will peak in the 2060s and could be as low as 6.3 billion by 2100. Demographics is destiny. A population collapse, once underway, is nearly impossible to reverse.

#8 China, India, Africa and Developing Countries Dissent

Without buy-in from the countries named above, any actions taken to reduce CO2 are doomed. Not only are developing nations not going along with the climate change narrative, they are aggressively pushing back. Whatever the US and Europe may do is irrelevant. The energy minister of India, Raj Singh, called net zero “pie-in-the-sky” and said, “You can’t stop developing countries from using more and more fossil fuel.”

#7 Moderate Warming is a Net Benefit to Humanity

Twenty times more deaths are caused by cold as opposed to heat; consequently, higher temperatures save far more people than are harmed. Also, warmer temperatures are a boon to agriculture and help feed humanity.

#6 Trillions Are Wasted While Potential Solutions Are Ignored

If the US achieved net zero emissions tomorrow, there would be no discernable temperature impact. Nor would there be any impact on future GDP. A CBO report revealed future GDP would be infinitesimally less in many years if there was a 2 degree rise in temperature. While we waste trillions on feel-good solutions, we ignore those that could have a positive impact such as a carbon tax or atmospheric seeding.

#5 There Has Been No Extreme Weather

Weather,, including hurricanes, is no more extreme, severe or frequent; floods have not increased; Greenland’s ice sheet is not shrinking more rapidly; heat waves are not more common and wildfires actually decreased – all compared to past periods.

#4 Climate Activism Causes More Harm Than Climate Change

Utopian green energy fiascos are causing great damage to our economy and to our national security. We are wasting trillions on programs that, even if successful, have no measurable climate benefit. Such spending has made electricity less reliable, jacked up energy prices, created shortages and empowered dictators.

#3 Correlation is Not Causation

Inevitably, it always comes down to climate alarmists brandishing a graph showing temperature moving up in lockstep with CO2 – with the starting point cherry picked to achieve maximum impact. Different plot points such as during the dust bowl years, when temperatures were high and CO2 emissions low, would make the graph show the opposite. I could replace CO2 on the graph with women’s hemlines to definitively “prove” hemlines caused warming. That one graph is all climate alarmists have.

#2 Science Tells us Little About Climate Change

The earth is warming and mankind exerts a warming influence. That’s all science can tell us; anything beyond those ten words is not science – it’s climate religion. Earth has been warming for 160 years. Although humans exert a warming influence, it is impossible to know how much is attributable to mankind. Observed warming throughout our solar system closely parallels warming on Earth leading to the conclusion that very little, if any, of Earth’s warming is anthropogenic.

#1 It’s Not About the Climate; it Never Was

Communists, socialists, progressives and the media – along with their acolytes who guzzle the cool aid – have hijacked the climate change movement to achieve their unrelated goals. They are following the same playbook they used when they hijacked the environmental movement, and now the transgender movement. They cloak their anti-capitalist agenda in green language; truth is irrelevant because the ends justify the means. They know their ideas are politically toxic, so they search for another way. It’s not about the climate; it never was!

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Watch For The Minsky Moment

February 4, 2024February 11, 2024 George Noga

Watch For The Minsky Moment

Has the great American spending crisis already begun?

GEORGE NOGA

Feb 4, 2024

I have been writing frequently about the spending crisis because it is inevitable and fundamentally will transform these United States in ways difficult to imagine. It will be like the Great Depression in that Americans will forever date everything from before or after the crisis. This post addresses whether or not the crisis has begun.

The crisis could begin suddenly when the market for Treasury securities evaporates and buyers no longer are willing to buy government debt under acceptable terms. It could be triggered by an unexpected downgrade of US government debt by one of the rating agencies. Or it may be triggered by a seemingly innocuous event such as a Bloomberg article that goes viral and results in panic selling of Treasury bonds.

Alternatively, the crisis could begin slowly and gradually. Although there would be abundant signs, they would be ignored or lost in mountains of data. Inevitably, there also would be conflicting signs. No bell will ring when the crisis begins.

The Minsky Moment

The Minsky Moment, named for economist Hyman Minsky, is that precise tipping point when unsustainable activity results in a sudden decline in market sentiment and leads to panic selling and to a rapid and unpreventable market collapse. It is an abrupt bursting of a bubble. It is an unmistakable demarcation such that nothing is the same after the Minsky Moment as it was before. A recent example of a Minsky Moment is the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers which burst the housing bubble.

Whether the spending crisis begins suddenly or gradually, there will come a Minsky Moment. Once it occurs, it will be too late to protect your assets.

Has the Spending Crisis Begun?

Although the Minsky Moment for the spending crisis has not yet occurred, that does not mean the crisis has not begun. As noted supra, the crisis could begin gradually, with the Minsky Moment coming later. Following are some indicia that suggest the crisis already may have started.

Moody’s, a major credit rating agency, recently put US Treasury securities on “negative credit watch”, which means a downgrade may be imminent. Recall that Treasury debt already has been downgraded once before.
Demand at recent auctions of Treasury debt has been tepid; in November, the Treasury was unable to sell all the bonds it offered due to insufficient demand.
A recent headline in the WSJ blared “Foreigners Lose Interest in Buying US Treasury Debt”. Foreign ownership of Treasuries is down 35% in recent years.
Demand for longer-dated Treasuries (the most risky) has been so weak that Treasury was forced to shift to offering more shorter-duration debt instead.
Interest on the debt last FY was 16% of revenue; this FY it will balloon to 22% of revenue on its way to oblivion. What happens when 25%, 33% or 50% of all government revenue must be used to pay interest on the debt?
There has been a geometric increase in the number of news reports about the debt spiral in recent months. Search “Minsky Moment” online.

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What is the Key Takeaway?

The key takeaway from all this is that the time will come (sooner rather than later) when America will be forced to cut spending by at least $1 trillion in today’s dollars. If we don’t drastically cut spending voluntarily, the market will do it for us. The most likely scenario is as follows:

The US will continue present spending levels. There will be occasional sops to cut spending but they will be inconsequential political window dressing.
Both the debt ratio and the share of revenue required to service debt will continue to skyrocket, reaching obscene levels.
The Minsky Moment likely will come when either: (1) the market for government debt implodes; (2) Treasuries are downgraded to near junk levels; or (3) some highly credible person or organization says the jig is up.
At first, the Fed will print money to sustain the obscene spending, but that will result in hyperinflation.
With absolutely no other choices remaining, spending will be slashed, including cuts of 30% to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and all other government programs. Also new taxes such as a VAT and/or carbon tax will be enacted.
America will be forever transformed and we will experience a lost generation.

Who will be the last person on Earth to buy US government debt? Watch for the Minsky Moment and remember that if something cannot go on forever, it won’t!

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© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

The Trillion Dollar Question

January 28, 2024February 11, 2024 George Noga

The Trillion Dollar Question

– It’s readers’ turn to decide how to reduce the deficit

GEORGE NOGA

Jan 28, 2024

Over the years, I have presented many different and (hopefully) compelling ways to put the US spending crisis into proper perspective. Now it is your turn. Following is the government spending for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2023. These are real numbers – actual dollars out the door – not projections or estimates.

Health care programs¹ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1.6 trillion
Social Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1.5 trillion
Discretionary non-defense . . . . . . . . . . $1.0 trillion
Defense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $0.8 trillion
Interest on the national debt . . . . . . . . $0.7 trillion
Other mandatory spending² . . . . . . . . $0.5 trillion
Total federal government spending . . $6.1 trillion

Other relevant numbers are GDP $26.2 trillion, government debt $33.7 trillion and the debt to GDP ratio 129%. Let’s stipulate the goal is to freeze the debt ratio at its present level of 129%. This is the dead minimum necessary to prevent a death spiral.

If GDP grows this FY by 3% to $27.0 trillion, the maximum debt must be no more than $34.8 trillion (34.8/27.0=129%). This means the total debt cannot increase by more than $1.1 trillion (33.7+1.1=34.8). Since the annual deficit is running at $1.7 trillion, that means $0.6 trillion of spending must be cut (1.7-1.1=0.6). We aren’t finished.

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Interest on the debt will increase this year by $0.2 trillion due to higher rates and more borrowing. Social Security and health care expenses are ballooning due to adverse demographics. To cut to the chase, immediate spending cuts of one trillion dollars ($1,000,000,000,000.00) are needed simply to freeze the ratio at 129%. Moreover, this does not solve our debt problem, it merely keeps it from getting worse.

It’s Your Turn; Where Would You Cut $1 Trillion?

So, where would you cut $1 trillion? You can’t cut interest on the debt; that would result in default. Do you cut defense spending given the dangerous geopolitical situation? Do you cut pensions and the VA? If you don’t cut Social Security or Medicare (political suicide), that leaves only discretionary non defense spending (cost of running the government) which coincidentally was $1 trillion last fiscal year.

So, it is up to you. Where do you cut one trillion dollars immediately? The old canard of cutting waste, fraud and abuse won’t fly – it is endemic and impossible to cut due to the nature of government. Raising taxes is a possibility and plausibly could be one (small) part of the solution. However, higher taxes stifle economic growth, which reduces tax collections, which increases the deficit, which leads to more tax hikes and results in a vicious circle. The problem is not low taxes, it is out of control spending.

If We Don’t Cut Voluntarily, Markets Will Do It For Us

If we do not make the spending cuts needed to freeze the debt ratio, the markets will do it for us by blowing up the market for US Treasury securities, i.e. buyers no longer would be willing to finance America’s deficit because they believe (correctly) that they would not be repaid in full.³ There are only three possibilities.

The Fed prints money (most likely scenario) which leads to hyperinflation
Draconian tax increases (carbon, VAT) which make the US economy a basket case
The US defaults on its debt

Foreign holdings of US debt have plunged by 35% from ten years ago, In November, there were not enough buyers and Treasury was unable to sell all the debt it wanted. Who will be the last person on Earth to buy US government bonds?

One way or another, the spending cuts are inevitable and America will be forever changed. Imagine the political and societal chaos that would result from drastic cuts to Social Security, Medicare and all other government programs. America will suffer a lost generation and become a European style no-growth welfare state where people lead lives of quiet desperation.

If something cannot go on forever, it won’t!

1. Includes Medicare, Medicaid, CHIP (Children’s Health) and ACA (Obamacare)

2. Includes government pensions, VA and veterans benefits

3. This already has begun. Some buyers are refusing to buy 30-year bonds and have forced the Treasury to shorten the duration of the bonds it issues.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com